30 dec 2008...

the bounce yday came from somewhere near expected lvls near 2800, it was quite sharp and fast as well, if its only a bounce then further lvls to watch on upperside(fibo ret) are 2962/2997(3002). above that if crosses then a gap is there around 3017-3027.

update on my ew analysis...

bounce may come near 2800 or on the trendline as shown by the ellipse on the chart.

any pullback above 3110 or toward 3240 means sub wave 5 of C-4 going on and wave counting will have to be revised.

at the moment it looks like 5 subwaves of C of C-4 are over at 3110 and C-5 down has begun.

C-5 has tgts 2200/2000/1670.

C-5 confirmation will be trading below trendline and below 2502.

lvls for 26 dec 2008...

here's wishing all a merry christmas and happy new year 2009!




nifty is in an intermediate uptrend, within which its a short term downtrend on lower volumes.

support 2850/2730, resistance provided by falling trendline as shown in above chart.

nifty charts...

eod chart.



intraday chart with gaps.



first trendline is broken closing basis, so its bearish upto second trendline and gap with upper one offering resistance to upmove.

lvls on downside to watch out 2922/2900/2840.

still in uptrend...

mkt is still in uptrend, longs can hold as long as lower trendline is held closing basis. positional shorting time yet to arrive. we are still in last part of C-4 wave upside may be upto 3134 etc so a good time to start booking profits in longs, after which C-5 downwave will begin which can go upto 2000 etc.

nifty chart trendlines...

support on trendline for tomorrow 18th dec 2008 seems 2950, nifty is a shorting opportunity if closes below this lvl.

if breaks and closes below first trendline may move toward the second trendline.

bullish upmove can continue if the first trendline is held closing basis.

nifty and other trading lvls...

nifty lvls 2648/2784/2867/2958/2990/3034/3067/3105/3240.

sensex lvls 8650/9320/9458/9857/9942/9983/10102/10325.

reliance lvls 1125/1188/1209/1222/1251/1290/1322/1362/1392/1454.

all in spot prices.

update on my ew analysis(wave 4 scenario)...

in the last post on my ew analysis i had said, "on our ew counts, for the terminal impulse C of C-4, 3 waves seems completed and today and a couple of days were expected to be down days((4) of C of C-4) upto eod trendline, followed by an upmove."

And it happened exactly, nifty fell from start and bounced off at 2812 from the eod trendline as mentioned, thereby marking the completion of 3rd and 4th waves of my terminal impluse C of C-4 wave scenario.

the 5th up of C of C-4 started from 2812 with a tgt marked by ellipse possibly on the upward sloping green trendline above 2950 as shown on the chart above.

even if it exceeds 3000 by 50 odd points it will still be a great positional shorting opportunity. so bears will get a big chance to short the nifty(and many stocks like l&t and icicibank etc) positionally at those lvls in a couple of days. safe traders can wait till break on closing basis of lower green eod trendline shown above.

first tgt will be 260 points from brk of lower green tline, second tgt could be 2570-2500. further tgts like 2000-2200 etc can be worked out on the downside but not to forget that currently nifty is in uptrend, let it first show this bearishness then short, caution on longs is advised going forward next couple of sessions.

nifty intraday gaps and trendlines and eod chart with trend channel/trendlines...

nifty spot intraday gaps and trendlines based trading for finding supports and resistances, something that is very useful for trading. i had posted earlier yahoo charts here and vfm forum and had asked ppl to trade according to these.

i have marked these on the chart above.



this eod chart was also posted by me many times, see how well it has performed till now.

view on market...

nifty has been showing some negative divergence for 2-3 days on various indicators and 2950 being on upper trendline could not be crossed, if any move on upperside is pending it could be upto 2980-3020 after which a good shorting opportunity(or on break of intraday trendline which will run between 2875-2925 during intraday for tomorrow) exists upto 2690/2550. reliance also seems max upside till 1380 after which may turn downwards toward 1050 etc.

today is 30th day from the day of making low of 2253 or 61.8% timewise of downmove from 4650-2253. on our ew counts, for the terminal impulse C of C-4, 3 waves seems completed and today and a couple of days were expected to be down days((4) of C of C-4) upto eod trendline, followed by an upmove.

nifty trading lvls...

nifty spot lvls:2712/2755/2785/2800/2844/2867/2900/2951/2980/3020/3100.

nifty intraday chart.

wave 4 scenario(cont'd)...

update on my ew wave 4 scenario:

earlier i had described how i had sub-divided our preferred ongoing wave C-4 into flat wave A(zig zag three segments a , b, c), B(irregular flat 3 segments a , b , c of which c was impulsive down ended 2503), and C(which is going on as a terminal impulse five segments of which 3rd segment is on).

so by my analysis since terminal impulse(note how each of its 5 segments i have further sub-divided into three waves each) C of C-4 is going on, its the upmove from 2503 with tgt anywhere 3000 or above. hence on forums i had advised not to positionally short the mkt at this point of time(shorting to be done for intraday only).

at the end of all five waves of C of C-4 (near 3000 or above), there will be tremendous opportunity to short the mkt till 2000 lvls.

invalidation for this at any time is break on closing basis of the trendline from 2503, though such terminal impulses are non-trending in nature, its only for our reference iam mentioning the trendline since its currently offering good support on downside for this short term upmove.

trading lvls for nifty 2570/2612/2655/2674/2694/2732/2794/2820/2850/2900/3000/3100/3250.

posting nifty chart again

nifty took support exactly on our support trendline and closed up 5%.

mkt lvls for 04 dec 2008...

choppy trading was witnessed on wednesday but nifty did'nt drift down sub 2700 lvls.

lvls for thursday 2567/2585/2612/2680/2737.

trend:
long term and medium to long term down
medium term up
intermediate term down
short term up
short to very near term down.

mkt for 3rd dec 2008...

yday the downmove continued followed by bounce from oversold territory, this bounce can last upto 2672/2700/2725 first lvl 2672 it did reach yday itself, a reaction from any of these lvl, if occurs, will test the imp 2630 which if breaks will test zone of 2525-2570.

nifty lvls...

2630/2580/2503/2485.

nifty chart: resistances and supports zone...

supports/resistances...

nifty spot supp 2732/2716/2680, resis 2770/2790.
reliance spot below 1130 tgt 1122/1110/1087 sl 1150.

nifty near supports...

previously given lvl of 2630 acted as strong support for nifty for the last two days.

now if 2612/2570 is held, then the short term uptrend may continue going forward.

outlook on mkt...

finally the bounce that was awaited took place on last thursday and friday, and if indeed a short term bullish reversal is made near 2500 and if it is indeed a part of the wave C-4-(3), then it should form an earlier part of an uptrend from 2503 and a dip becomes a buying opportunity for a short term, to be exited at end of C-4-(3) where it is again to be shorted for C-5 to 2000 lvl.

short term tgt 2710/2750/2785/2882 sl 2630.
short to medium term tgt 3100/3250/3700 sl 2485.

nifty lvls...

2485, 2454, 2375 to be watched on the downside on nifty spot if opens weak today on bearish global cues.

view on mkt...

while iam expecting some upmove toward 2900-3000 in couple of days, it should be used by traders for positional shorting with prev highs as sl, as according to the bias as posted earlier, nifty is weak and would drift further down. for investors slowly some accumulation may be done on any such big dips.

nifty chart...

at the moment nifty seems like following the downward sloping channel, but if weakness persists and the channel as well as the fibo lvl 2630 also breaks without giving a bounce, then next lvl to watch is 2546.

my projected wave 4 scenario...

internal waves within our preferred wave 4 bias discussed earlier.

as one can see, i have sub-divided wave 4 into A(3 wave zig-zag), ongoing B(3 wave flat). therefore wave 4 also becomes a flat. wave C after B can become truncated if support area(above 2631) is respected.

support and resistance areas are also marked by ellipses.

dotted arrows showing the speculated projected directions of mkt movement for monday and afterwards.

update: ongoing B above structure changed to 3 wave zig-zag from flat, others remain same as given earlier.

***only for academic purposes.

some significant lvls/tgts...

crucial lvls to be held on s&p500 us(768),dow(7200-7400),nifty(1800-2000),sensex(6100) as given in earlier posts.

above are 5 year lows for s&p 500(us), 10 year lows for dow, previous bull mkt brkout as well as very long term trendline support lvls for nifty and sensex.

below those lvls danger of s&p 500(us) and dow to slip in structural long term bear mkt(recession) whereas for nifty and sensex may best not break those lvls as growth going forward it supports view of staying in long term bull mkt.

if the next 1-2 years pan out as expected in bear mkt in stock mkts then gold it is undergoing correction 550 looks possible in a few years if not held maybe 400 max then upmove as per kondratiev bullish cycle. on nymex crude, 38 the lvl where it did a bullish brkout 5 years ago looks a possibility if 49-50 not held(all in $ prices above).

pls note these tgts/lvls are speculative in nature and are as per my analysis on ew.

channel magic!

further ew moves...

yday i said "now on nifty we should watch the fibo ret(2862/2746/2631) of this upmove from 2253-3240. if not held then previous low will be likely to be tested."

during the day nifty slid upto 2860 and bounced to 3005 then again came down below 2900.

now if 2860 is broken these downside lvls will come.


C-4, C-5 or big B, so what wave we are in right now?

C-5 will be confirmed closing below 2631, for now its both options big B and C-4 for us. if big B is correct(which is doubtful) then rally up over recent highs from any of the above given lvls, if C-4 is correct(our present bias) then nifty will get into a rangebound movement after hitting above lvls for few days before breaking down. in C-4 scenario upper limit will be probably 3100.

mkt the next move...

yday the upmove got resisted exactly on my resistance line earlier marked on sensex monthly chart previously posted here.

now on nifty we should watch the fibo ret(2862/2746/2631) of this upmove from 2253-3240. if not held then previous low will be likely to be tested.

elliott wave chart and market view.

nifty ew tentative wave counts chart.

we already discussed the previous low being significant pricewise (C=1.618xA) and timewise(time equal to A leg). so nifty may well have made the low or will make in coming days if above ew chart is correct. with other techniques like lowest p/e etc it was proved beyond doubt about the correctness of the tgt.

if last leg of C i.e C-5 is pending, that can terminate near the previous low, then every big dip from hereon gives a great buying opportunity to investors to pick their favourite stocks(like bluechips ril,sbin,lt etc) at very attractive p/e, p/b valuations in this month.

even if all the downwaves of big wave A are over by any chance and big wave B started as some friends are suggesting, even then the mkt remains buy on dips, and since bear mkts last longer than 2-3 years it makes sense to either sell the averaged holdings near completion of big upmove B in first half of next year or hold with a long term term view.

nifty view...

there is a bullish breakaway gap 2920-2964 on nifty spot that can be sl for positional longs, if trades below the lower end of gap for sometime, it may turn bearish.

update on my ew...

i have my wave counts but sometimes its best not to disclose and follow the next move of mkt to show direction, i am expecting a good downmove after nifty achieving the tgt of 2880-2921, a bigger upmove now will call for a slight change in the wave labelling, so far none of the counts have been changed.

if my wave analysis is correct by any chance, then a lot of time is still there for bottoming out. on the other hand pricewise i.e larger C tgt 2209 and minm timewise nifty has already made a significant low at 2253.

has the market bottomed out?

has the market bottomed out? what's the road ahead.

ydays pullback was encouraging which came after a long wait, expecting it to last upto 2880.

i feel the bottoming out process is now going on, there will be retesting of 1800-2000 and nifty will get rangebound in a larger range like 2000-3350 in next few days with volatility but such moves will be tradeable, i guess it will take some 10-12 sessions within which we should have a bottom for this year in place, after which it will begin its upward journey till the onset of summer next year.

happy deepavali...

wishing a very happy diwali and a prosperous new year to all!

update on my ew...

todays intraday recovery from bottom might give some possibility for intermediate bounces, wave counts not possible to give at this point.

if todays low 2253 is held then a sizeable bounce to 2640 to 2880 cannot be ruled out.

C wave tgt was 2209(almost done near today's low) i.e., 1.618 times wave A, waves do overshoot by some amount.

there are some strong supports expected near 1800-2000 region as given in nifty monthly charts.

long term charts for nifty, sensex and dow jones...

dow jones monthly chart.



sensex monthly chart.



nifty monthly chart.

intermediate bounces will be resisted by upper falling resistance trendlines.



abhay r somkuwar.

how low can it get...

bear mkt is in full swing and seems like final capitulation is coming in.

how low can the index go to?

putting a number is very difficult to such a downside as lvls come and go and mkt falls further down.

the trend is strongly down and it makes no sense to go long or buy stocks immediately for investment even though they appear too cheap, let the mkts settle down and make a bottom and show real signs of moving up, even if one invests at these lvls will have to wait for long time 1-2 years for next bull mkt to start.

we had already discussed the worst case scenario.

but lets see how bad it can get.

elliott wave theory says bear mkts typically end near top of the first wave of previous bull mkt.

that lvl comes to 2014 on nifty and 6250 on sensex.

previous bear mkts had a drop of 60-65% from the previous bull mkt highs.

that means current one might correct to between 2221 to 2540.

since jan the nifty moved in fashion 6357-4448-5300-3790-4650-2700, every rise was approx 50% of drop and each big drop was approx 30% from its recent high, e.g 6357-6357x0.30=6357-1907=4450,5300-5300x0.30=3710, so drop from 4650 was expected upto 3255 but nifty continues to fall giving indication this may end up 50-60% or so which is 1860-2325.

my p/e chart had p/e data only for low of 10.84, bear mkts had earlier traded at a low p/e 9-10, current eps gives such a lvl 2300 unless the earnings take a hit.

its not necessary mkt will go down there, but who knows?

just as it is difficult to call mkt tops so are the bottoms. bull mkts end on euphoria and bear mkts end when pessimism is at its peak.

update on my ew analysis..

looking at the ew chart of nifty, the pullback upto 3648 seems like C-3-(4), it was tentatively marked so on given ew chart, it also falls within the given time period till mid of this week as stated in last weeks ew post.

in all probability, on weak global cues nifty will open gap down and hence C-3-(5) will progress which will create more positive divergence on rsi, at the end of C-3-(5), our tradeable bounce i.e., C-4 will begin.

likely tgt for current short term downtrend i.e., C-3-(5) is coming at 2870(tentative).

our nifty bottom poll ends today, most readers/visitors of this blog were aware that mkt hasn't formed the bottom yet.

***ew analysis is speculative in nature, readers advised to follow own discretion.

play it both ways...

fun intended!:)

the rising wedge...

so after the falling wedge on eod charts, today it was the turn of the sort of rising wedge on intraday charts of nifty.

congrats to anyone who traded it bcoz the perfect tgt was reached near previous nifty low near 3050.

the falling wedge and my ew chart...

here's the much discussed falling wedge now developing on nifty chart, the volumes are declining and positive divergence showing on rsi indicator. it needs a bullish breakout with volume above the wedge upper tline, the upper tgt after a break out will be upto 3600. this if happens will probably mean our C-3-(4) and C-3-(5) completed and C-4 will be on with already given tgt that matches very well.

but a close with volume below recent low of 3047 and further will negate this. and the wedge/triangle then i will perhaps mark just as C-3-(4), as it fits in time reqd for its completion, with further waves C-3-(5) etc to follow thereafter.

pls refer to my ew chart posted earlier for reference.

so it seems the movement of nifty in next couple of days will be interesting and will provide the direction to trade.

fresh nifty pe chart...

peta(pun not intended) chart analysis is something unique to my blog as described by many friends trading and analyzing mkts.

immediate support lvl by fibo seen near 12.62 p/e equivalent to 2950 on nifty. upperside if re-enters channel it will be likely to be resisted by the upper trend channel lines currently near 14 and 18 p/e respectively.

max projected downside if remains below trend channel is about 10 p/e or 2340 on nifty(its not necessary that it will get there).

the subprime mortgage crisis...

(source:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_mortgage_crisis)

and the global economic fallout arising out of the financial crisis...

so are we heading to hyperinflation, deflation, recession or stagflation?

an interesting link with some views on this.

my ew chart...

my elliott wave analysis chart.

the expected downmove did take place as shown with given tgts.

iam yet to mark C-3-(4) and C-3-(5) completion.

now it is quite possible that nifty may hold todays low i.e., 3100 and trade within 3100 and 3650 till mid of next week, which will be an indication of complex corrective C-3-(4) going on.

on the other hand break of 3198 on closing basis with further downmoves will give indication of C-3-(5).

after C-3-(5) completes, a good tradeable bounce will occur i.e., C-4 which may go upto 3500-3600 etc followed by C-5 that will test the lows formed or even go to lower lvls(tgts yet to be calculated), are pending. all this will still take number of days and weeks.

this will complete the big A structure.

nifty view...

nifty moved as per expectation on upside as well as selling pressure again came in, as given in my 11th oct's post. i hope the readers were benefitted.

now the recent low 3199 is under threat of being broken on downside today or coming days.

after this immediate downmove completion a tradeable bounce will take place and finally a test of 2997 or lower iam expectiong in coming days/weeks, this view has also been mentioned in my previous posts.

this is my roadmap which will still take some more time for the bottom for this year to be formed.

market in coming days...

i had mentioned about some intermediate bounces in this downmove currently on.

if friday's low i.e 3199 is held then nifty can bounce upto a tgt of 3570 in coming days where it might face selling pressure again.

5 year comparative returns on some global indices...

our mkt fallen so much from jan 2008 top, but still looks better after comparing with other global indices on a five year time frame.

update on ew analysis...

i admit of marking completion of C-3-(3) on 8th oct 2008 without confirming same, but from todays downmove it still seems to be going on, so will mark only when it bottoms out, any inconvenience caused due to this to the readers is unintentional and is regretted.

okay so if our wave labelling is correct, then in coming days two volatile but tradeable bounces and two declines(one small one big each respectively) are expected before wave C and bigger wave A completes.

the long term picture...

to me the decline in mkt from jan 2008 uptil now appears like wave 2 of third impulse of super cycle started from 1980. the supercycle wave one lasted for 12 years, corrective wave two of supercycle lasted for 11 years and the current supercycle wave three therefore should go on for atleast 12 years or more from 2003 onwards. the trendline support for sensex on this degree wave count on my charts is around 6100 presently and will keep shifting up.

as suggested by our friend praveen shamain, i agree that the downmove from jan 2008 would take shape as one large wave A.

these waves that i labelled as ABC-X-ABC will be reduced to W-X-Y and finally as big A which will complete in this year 2008 somewhere near yday's low or 2997, after which 50% or 61.8% retracement of this big A(might be about 5075 on nifty if current bottom is 2997) takes form of big upward wave B in the first half of next year followed by big wave C terminating closer to 2000. therefore it makes sense to average investment holdings at bottom that we get/got near 2997 now(2997 because it is fibo 61.8% of total bull run from 920 to 6357) i.e C-5 or big A and sell them near big B completion. i expect a simple big zigzag ABC corrective. time period less than 2 years is not allowable for big ABC to complete. of course all this is speculative in nature but lets see if it comes true, some magnitudes and/or structures if change will have to be taken care of as the waves proceed.

abhay r somkuwar.

happy dussehra

wishing a happy dussehra to all the friends, well-wishers, ta followers, learners and visitors of this blog.

update on my ew analysis...

so far no waves counts have been changed in my clear cut analysis.

C is running fast downward. today C-3-(3) is completed at 3331 with C-3-(3)-v being an extended wave. for today the nifty channel lvl on downside was 3307(see today's nifty and sensex channel post). it is to be noted that today's low 3331 was exact fibo lvl on my charts.

the C-3-(4) which started up from 3331 has a tgt of 3700 in coming days.

in my ew analysis nifty has to go further down, after C-3-(4) completes, C-3-(5) will open down, followed by C-4 up and C-5 down where the C wave structure will complete.

since further downwaves are still to go on, the probable tgts will be given later.

nifty and sensex channels...

watch for supports on channel lower tline.

nifty/sensex lvls for today...

trend bearish.

nifty lowerside 3720,3743, upperside 3865,3910

sensex lowerside 12078,12300, upperside 12631,12730.

things to be noted...

while i have given various lvls on the downside for nifty arrived at by various techniques it is only for academic purposes.

predicting the exact targets or picking the mkt bottom or top is difficult, more so in a bear phase. hence for someone who is following the markets as a trader or as an investor, it is best to follow the prevailing trend(which is pointing down currently) and not worry too much about the actual targets.

nifty yearly trend channel...

trend channel study on nifty yearly gives a tgt of 3090. previous yearly lows may act as intermediate support lvls.

nifty worst case scenario...

after the bail out package and indo-us nuclear deal is passed by the senate some analysts have been talking of bear mkt getting over and fresh bull run has started. but on technical charts the bearish scenario has'nt changed at all it still remains a bear mkt rally with sell on rise. the worst case scenario does'nt take into account short term rallies or bullishness. till we don't see any indications of a medium to long term uptrend developing on charts, we consider the bear phase to go on pricewise and timewise.

we will consider some techniques in case bear mkt goes on and hits lows.

nifty worst case tgts:

1)fibo:

taking 61.8% retracement of bull run 920 to 6357, the tgt according to fibo is 2997.

2)elliott wave:

after the impulse structure, "generally, a corrective wave will take the market to the area of the 4th wave of one lesser degree...especially when the corrective wave itself is a 4th wave. In other cases, the market will often find support at the top of wave 1 of one lesser degree." this sentence gives clue of the likely tgt of the ongoing correction.

the tgt according to this is either (somewhere between 3774 to 2595) or finally 2014.

3)p/e chart:

lowest ever mkt p/e was 10.84, accordingly the final lvl comes to 2522.


timewise correction:

as pointed out earlier it took slightly more than 5 years(from year 2003 to 2008-09) for the bull run to complete, so timewise atleast a period of 2 years from jan 2008 onwards is ideal for correction before next bull run starts. during the deep correction nifty will slide to lows and then consolidate. in sideways correction it may move up but will be resisted by the yearly trend channel.


abhay r somkuwar.

nifty and sensex view...

so indeed its the C-3-(3) running and going down furiously, supports on downward sloping trend channel on my charts is near 11000 on sensex and below 3500 on nifty. 1000 dma is also near 3500 on charts. lets see if this this gives some support to nifty. of course, this could be intermediate lvls if bear mkt has to last for longer period of time.

update on my ew analysis...

nifty has broken the imp 3990 lvl and closed below it, expecting bounce in a day or two, a pullback only upto 4117 means C-3-(3)-i running, while if goes above 4117 upto 4300 etc means C-3-(2) still going on. whichever the case nifty will come back to test 3790 and head to 3500 etc in this our preferred view which is described earlier.

market analysis...

the current big support for nifty on the p/e chart is 3500 about 15 times current eps where it should bounce in near term(although roughly 3250-3550 i prefer acc to ew etc), below that in long term will probably go to 2700 etc acc to p/e chart, pls note these are not tgt lvls but support lvls if nifty goes down there(pls refer to charts previously posted on this blog). p/b currently also not near to the lvls where normally market bounces off but is trending down means there was currently no case for great amount of bullishness(the price/macd chart posted many days ago had warned about the downmove from 4650 to 3800 much earlier).

i have been using p/e charts with good amount of success since this blog started, infact the 6400 top( perhaps i had posted a thread/post reg this on vfm/my blog before jan 2008) acc to peak p/e was predicted(nifty topped at 6357!), p/e expansion/contraction also worked well on charts and all these can be used for investment deci i guess alongwith ew and tradional ta.

after 5 years of bull run, a period upto 2 years of sideways/down mkt is but natural, when the bear mkt is over(is not in a hurry to do so presently and for good it should not) we'll know for sure from ta and start investing again till then trading(in nifty in small lots only intra etc) to be done if ppl must, else may sit on sidelines and enter only when correction gets over for great value buying(picking the exact bottom will be a difficult task).


going up or down.

ew view:

this is the grey area/million dollar question, are we going up(i.e fresh upmove) or down(correction resuming) from here. so far nothing has changed in my earlier view that i was holding about 3500 or more etc.

view 1) is C over at 3799. so if all 5 downwaves of C are over then, either an x up followed by correction(will be difficult to anlyse this situation) or a fresh upmove which will have uptrend after ret upto 4110-3990. so if this is correct not much downside will be left below 4000.

view 2) C-1 to C-4 are over and C-5 begins: though at glance it looks like that but structurally all conditions for this are not satisfied.

view 3) first downwave(which was large) of C i.e C-3-(1) over at 3799(iam biased toward this for reasons like p/e etc explained earlier here).

acc to this, 4268 the 0.618 ret of 4558-3779(wave C-3-(2)) and slightly more which is normal and expected and within acceptable limit, is over and probably C-3-(3)-i started down from there. so after this a small bounce will be there and it will again slide fast after that below 3990 and 3790 etc. the max lvl on upside for C-3-(2) earlier was 4268-4377, any bounce should not exceed this range i feel for this view to be correct.

if this view is correct then C-3-(1) was very large and final tgt will also be deep i would settle for 3250-3550(exact target not calculated). a break of 3790 on closing basis is needed for confirmation of C-3-(3) running.

so from above, it looks like the lvls 3790 and 3990 become kind of deciding factor for further moves.

the final target whatever and whenever it comes doesn't matter much to a long term investor since even now valuations are attractive, but whenever that happens and mkt bottoms out finally and starts fresh upmove should not be missed as an investment opportunity.

the charts will indicate this.

mkt view...

nifty has done the 61.8% ret of 3799-4558, on strong us mkt close on friday next resis is 4377 where some selling might emerge.

nifty p/e chart supports...

nifty approx likely projected supports.

nifty outlook and tgt achievements...

so the expected 3799 came so fast in opening trade itself marking our C-3-(1) and expected C-3-(2) started from there with tgt of 4082/4140 , will face big resistance above that to 4200-4250 after which if not crossed further selling will emerge to threaten 3799 lvls(C-3-(3)). my preferred tgt lvl for downmove for nifty is 3550 although in the long run i expect it to slide further below it since bullish signs are yet to emerge.

apart from nifty, my nymex crude view also came correct as i said it will bottom near $90/bbl(refer post on this below) as well as gold near $735-750/oz(refer gold chart post earlier on blog).

sensex and nifty...

for today
proj sensex low 12862
proj nifty low 3882.

C-3-(1)-v about to begin downwards today after which C-3-(2) up will begin.

update on my ew analysis...

nifty chart with labelling of the minor elliott waves inside the ongoing assumed zig zag correction leg C of ABC-X-ABC.

the broader wave counts and tgts for this correction was already given earlier in this post on 31st august 2008 http://valuetrading.blogspot.com/2008/08/my-latest-ew-update.html.

nifty supports and resistances...

nifty trading strategy...

nifty trading strategy for today and coming days:

initiate and book longs today near 4360-85(nf 4378-4406) region and exit longs upto 4412(nf 4434), coming days one may short near high with sl 4438(nf 4458) for tgt 4200-4240 spot.

update on my ew:

nifty is in C-3-(1)-iii-(iv) currently C-3-(1)-iii-(v) most likely to end near 4266/4227 then C-3-(1)-iii-(iv) to open up upto 4360 then C-3-(1)-iii-(v) down from there to 4240 to complete C-3-(1)-iii structure.

***analysis based on ew for academic purpose, trade at own risk.

triangle on nifty...

yesterday on vfmdirect forum i had advised friends to trade only on breakout/breakdown from this descending triangle(base 4418). on request posting the chart here. downside lvls as mentioned in my nifty lvls post below may be used.

nymex crude chart...

nymex crude looks closer to bottoming out above $90/bbl on my chart above, a bounce on the blue line near yesterday's lvl cannot be ruled out immediately.

nifty lvls...

spot nifty lvls 4550-4500-4419-4383-4352-4328.

approaching the sensex resistance...

sensex faces strong resistance near circled area marked on trend channel and imp fibo lvls(refer chart). yday nifty went above its 4500 resis area only to close below it afterwards.

coming day's view on mkt...

nifty played near 4325-62 area today which is 38.2%-50% ret of its rise 4203-4521, so a bounce here upto 4400 is possible further bullishness above it upto 4470, on the contrary breaking below 4325 it can head toward a test of 4200 recent low. on a positional closing basis its important that 4159 should hold mkt becomes much bearish below it.

latest nifty p/e chart...

coming support is the circled area near/below 15 p/e approx 3550 on nifty.

rangebound markets...

presently 4200 to 4470 is the nifty range in which trading is taking place or i may like to call it a neutral zone below which bears will be active and bulls above it upto 4770 etc. hence positional traders can trade on breakout/down from the zone with proper sl.

my latest ew update...

one of the greatest advantages of using elliott wave analysis is prediction of market direction and its likely behaviour much earlier for taking medium to long term investing/trading decisions. the flip side is due to its complicated nature one cannot be very sure if its the right count or analysis one is making and if it is terribly wrong then one can also lose a lot if proper exit lvls are not kept.

so anyone reading this ew analysis is requested to do own study and maintain own discretion.

i had expressed some doubt on B completion and opening of C down of second zigzag ABC in ABC-X-ABC formation after january 2008 in dire straits.

now looking at the degrees of waves present within the 3790-4650(4637) upmove, it does look like B is over and C is on, if this is so then recent high 4650(4637) will be the intermediate peak in short term and rally now to be used to exit long positions.

internal structure within wave C:

sub-wave C-1 has ended at 4203.55 with internal waves i,ii,iii,iv,v shown as in above chart,

C-2 upmove is on with tgt 4370-4472(a striking similarity to the tgts according to my previous post http://valuetrading.blogspot.com/2008/08/magic-of-channels-trendlines-and-moving.html,

then C-3 will open down with a tgt 3770(taking 2 end as 4472),

then C-4 up from 3770 takes it to 4040,

then last sub-wave of C i.e C-5 opens down to tgt 3550-3606, again a striking similarity with tgts achieved by my techno-fundamentals i.e p/e chart http://valuetrading.blogspot.com/2008/08/nifty-pe-chart.html.

(note: even if iam wrong in considering C is going and making projections on the downsides and by chance if B is still on, even then its limit is 4770 since B in a zigzag will not exceed 61.8% ret of A, a move above that now will call for a change in my current ew counts and will change the larger outlook on market, till then just enjoy reading)

-abhay r somkuwar.

magic of channels, trendlines and moving averages...

indicative supports and resistances on nifty chart.

if overcomes immediate resistance near 4367/98 will next face major resistance near 4470, major support currently near 4160(from spot nifty chart above).

nifty the triangle trading...

hourly chart
R1 4310 R2 4345(on triangle sides) S1 4283 S2 4250.

gold weekly chart supports and resistances...

in dire straits...

i have been discussing ABC-X-ABC type complex correction since after jan crash and given the counts on charts earlier.

Now the B of second corrective ABC seems over at 4650(having already done more than 50% retracement of A), if not then nifty must move up from here up to defy end of B and signify end of B-c-2 today and rise toward 4700 odd lvls to complete its earlier tgt else presumably B has ended and the dreaded big 5 wave C has begun.

also note the blue circles(crossovers on macd-signal) and green circles(crossovers 20-50 emas) that look ominous at this point.

sensex chart...

sensex chart, going forward sensex will be facing strong resistance on upper line of trend channel, 400 dma, and two very important fibo lvls all converging at the same place!!!

strategy: booking profits and initiating hedged shorts near these lvls when sensex reacts and comes down from there, fresh longs only above the circled area if sensex stays above the resistance area for a few days.

nifty p/e chart...

possible projected strong support seen on blue line near 15 p/e on the chart if nifty comes down. the corresponding value on spot comes to around 3550.