nymex light crude oil futures chart...

most active nymex light crude oil july futures chart.

a record brkout high price near 138 on last friday led to US stock mkt crash on friday which will have a bearish sentimental impact on coming monday on asian stock mkts.

nifty technical view...

as u must be aware with my analysis on this blog, on the daily chart i was viewing correction after 6357 as zigzag(3 waves) then connecting x-wave upward(chart given earlier as roadmap for nifty, 3 waves) and then probably a flat. so any Vth monthly upmove has to correspond with daily waves upmoves. it was also said in that chart of mine that x can move max upto 5630 only, any movements above 5630 to be considered as bigger wave B(after first abc zigzag) of a larger flat wave.

on the monthly chart nifty spot slipped marginally on close last month below its long term support trendline. but scenario this month looks very bad since it is continuosly trading below both the 0-I and II-IV trendlines. the big resistance offered by II-IV trendline is around 5000 for this month, 5000 is also imp as it is 50% retracement of 3554-6357 and 38.2% retracement of 2595-6357.

long time back i had given wave counts on my monthly elliott wave chart and current correction was shown as ivth wave progressing in triangular fashion after which terminal impulse Vth monthly may begin. current downmove on nifty seems to be last wave of that triangle trendline which stands near 4500 for this month. as such any closings below 4448(jan low) is not acceptable for a probable monthly Vth upmove to begin. any closing below 4445-4448 will be very bearish and will point to 4280 and 4002.

if multi year bull run starting 920 on monthly charts is assumed to be over at 6357 then 4280(38.2% ret), 3638(50% ret) and 2995(61.8% ret) are the imp lvls on the downside. long time back i had mentioned that is is essential that 4245 should not be broken during downmove after january so that terminal impulse Vth monthly cannot be a failure, so far it was protected and had opened the opportunity for non failure of the Vth monthly.

recently nifty could not close above 5280 and on last friday saw addition of huge options call writing at strike lvl of 4700 when it traded below 4625, now what is very interesting here is both the lvls 5280 and 4625 are respectively 38.2% and 61.8% retracements of my montly V-iii. therefore closings below 4625 is also very bad.

because of the rangebound nature of the market after the big crash since jan 2008 its been a terrible time for both the investors(who may have lost a fortune) as well as traders. too much volatilty in narrow range is not good for even short term traders/investors. after bad financial news(subprime etc losses abroad) currently high inflation rate is a big drag on economies worldwide is playing on the minds of big funds as well as investors keeping mkt at lower levels on fears.

but all things are cyclical in nature as well as mkt, one day it has to end somewhere, till then it will go on its natural course.

-abhay r somkuwar.

further update on my ew...

earlier i had pointed out downmove upto 4775-4800 and a lower lvl also acceptable before fresh upmove begins. the lvl i was looking for was 4546-4551 from where this upmove might begin based on terminal wave counts magnitude limit. any fall on closing basis below this(90% ret) will call for a change in this view else its valid.

if today and tomorrow ns maintains closings at or above 4650 then one can take/carry a short term long position with appropriate sl.