mkt ahead...18th feb 2010...

allright so we got the bounce and also this 100 point movement i was writing about after crossing the mentioned zone earlier and baby bulls took nifty to 4930. hope the readers might have benefitted to some extent. many times analyzing the mkt is bit easier than actually writing and explaining the views here, like this time, and i may go completely wrong in my views/opinion on mkt too, however let me try to explain.

what i feel is that some more move upto 4980 may be left. if any profit booking comes and gets limited to 4780-4830 then the move to 4980-5015-5070 may be possible in the near to short term. but again 4951 will be crucial and at higher end selling may again start.

actually the selling in early feb was far more than needed/anticipated and the lack of volumes on follow up bounce/pullback hints that more selling might be left in the short term till 4650/4450 after this pullback gets over. if such a scenario occurs and nifty then is unable to quickly pullback up over the imp 4590-4650 area, then it may actually become quite bearish and nifty may try to move to 4250 lvls in the medium term.

however this bearish view will get negated to some extent(not fully) if the nifty continues its upward journey and starts closing above the mentioned 4983-5015 lvls with an increase in the trading volumes. like e.g., yday's volumes were better with a bullish macd-signal crossover, but a short term uptrend is yet to be established above 4951.

one has to be cautious and trade carefully in coming days. mkt movement will have to be closely watched and accordingly i will try to give more updates in coming days as per my view, if at all necessary.

-abhay r somkuwar.

(discl: pls read the disclaimer above)