market medium term roadmap...

s&p500(us) eod chart with negative divergences and support trendlines:


dow jones eod chart with negative divergences and support trendlines:


sensex weekly chart with negative divergence and support trendline:


nifty weekly chart with negative divergence and support trendline:


strong uptrend on s&p500(us) and dow jones eod charts.

uptrend also is on nifty and sensex charts.

but profit booking or correction is warranted in short to medium term to mentioned lvls/lines.

but given negative divergences appearing on all the above charts, if the trendlines are broken on downside if profit booking comes in, then the lvls upto which they may come down are also marked on the charts.


so given the above and from intraday ew counts, the medium term roadmap scenario to me looks like this. nifty may move in a fashion like correcting to 4500/4550 from 4700 odd and then moving up to around 4900 etc in the next series. similar can also be inferred from options data. 22 p/e also comes around 4900 tgt where it becomes expensive for a bear mkt rally. if nifty does a weekly brkout on upperside then tgts will be higher but i won't consider till that happens.

lets see how it goes, but any dip to support trendline holding would be a buying opportunity.

exit closing lvls for nifty...

nifty is in uptrend so pls be with the trend, looks headed toward 4700 or previous top 4731.

exit only when,
weekly closes below 4350.
daily closes below 4465.

intraday ew chart suggests still in intraday uptrend with momentum falling so caution advised for longs as price moves up towards tgt will start getting weak below 4580.

(posted today morning 09:30 am)

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(update afternoon 02:00 pm)

intraday currently looks like 5-iv under progress and last wave 5-v remains.

after that profit booking may come, and initially gets intraday bearish if comes below 4532 and stays then can become weak and come down upto 4580.

below which its into correction mode to 4500.

nifty intraday ew(update)...

3-iv and 3-v progressed on expected lines after yday 1.30 pm.

while on the charts its not weak but due to asian mkts trading with negative bias the opening may bring it down and open the expected a flat type 4th wave tgting 4595 (at most 4558 if only stays below that for sometime).

thereafter we may expect a bounce to yday high or more in a couple of days.

why i said my ew counts are speculative because iam projecting a scenario that may or may not unfold, but likely as per my study.

(posted today morning 09:22 am)

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3:15 pm update(closing bell):

excellent again. from ew views/counts nifty scenario unfolded and has moved exactly as per expectations opening down and reacting from the given lows, looks like the fifth wave is on, now caution advised at higher lvls.

exit lvl will be given in the next post.

tentative nifty intraday ew chart...

my tentative nifty spot counts till 1:30 pm on 24th aug 2009, do not trade on this as the counts are speculative.

mkt ahead 24th aug 2009...

as mentioned nifty opened weak on friday and took support again near the imp 4400 lvl to bounce back and reached our given tline resis lvl of 4538, good intraday trading opportunity.

on eod charts its still rangebound in a falling wedge shaped consolidation pattern. supports 4423 and 4348. brkout point on upperside for monday 24th aug 2009 is 4520, crossing 4538 a minor resistance is at 4558 and major ones at 4600 and 4620.

if confirmed and decisive closing basis brkout takes place from upper or lower limits(4520/4348) then tgts from this consolidation may be of magnitudes 215/266/360 points.


here's another angle: brkout from ascending triangle on intraday nifty chart.



mkt likely to open in the green.