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    Thursday, September 18, 2008

    nifty outlook and tgt achievements...

    so the expected 3799 came so fast in opening trade itself marking our C-3-(1) and expected C-3-(2) started from there with tgt of 4082/4140 , will face big resistance above that to 4200-4250 after which if not crossed further selling will emerge to threaten 3799 lvls(C-3-(3)). my preferred tgt lvl for downmove for nifty is 3550 although in the long run i expect it to slide further below it since bullish signs are yet to emerge.

    apart from nifty, my nymex crude view also came correct as i said it will bottom near $90/bbl(refer post on this below) as well as gold near $735-750/oz(refer gold chart post earlier on blog).

    Posted by abhay r somkuwar at 8:35 AM

    4 comments:

    Anonymous said...

    Dear Abhay,
    Excellent prediction. Just like you said. Nifty Crude and gold bounced exactly from your levels.
    Keep your good work
    Can you once again post your PE analysis.
    regards
    Ranga

    September 19, 2008 at 6:45 AM
    abhay r somkuwar said...

    yes ranga sir, will update shortly, on ew we have to see this 4250 closely as i took bearish wave count in which 3rd wave of C to begin after this upmove whereas another school of thought says all 5 downwaves of C over, so lets C(see),lolz.

    thanks,
    regards.
    abhay r somkuwar.

    September 19, 2008 at 9:43 AM
    Sandeep said...

    Hi Abhay..excellent work sir..Nifty kind of honoured your levels. I was expecting 3840 levels on the spot based on what ever little i know of EW..but this bullish setup has left me confused and trapped as well..am short and the developments are not favouring my positions at all..i had assumed that this was the end of C3 and using the Alteration theory i was not expecting the C4 to retrace more than 38.2%..

    You mentioned in your reply above that all 5 waves of C may be over..are you referring to C or 5 waves of C3 by any chance..coz if its C then we are in for a fresh upmove which would be targeting much higher levels..Would appreciate if you can throw some light of this C

    Cheers!!

    Sandeep

    September 20, 2008 at 11:20 AM
    abhay r somkuwar said...

    okay sandeep, see a C ret of max 76.2%(i.e C-3-(2) or second wave of our bearish scenario alternative one) iam looking at which comes to 4377 on spot nifty which should not be crossed/closed above, at the same time expecting 3 waves only at max if its a bounce, if by chance 5 waves in C-3-(2) upmove, then that becomes impulse of second alternative(i.e fresh bullish wave count if C assumed ended all five waves at 3799),if 3 wave presently connecting x wave is there then it will complicate the matter. right now both options are open with my bias toward the first whose tgt pending 3250-3550.

    regards.

    September 20, 2008 at 11:44 AM

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