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very long term chart of gold...

the projested tgts/lvls are speculative, do not take positions as they may be risky for you.

(refer ew chart and views posted on 06th dec 2009 http://valuetrading.blogspot.com/2009/12/my-gold-ew-chart.html)

these are not comex but london exch gold rates in $/oz, so some difference will be there. there is a small resistance near 1380.

from elliott wave point of view, at a glance looks like sub-wave ((v)) of (v) of iii of the 5th impulse wave from the low of year 2001 is going on. after which iv down and v up remain. iv can result in minor correction just near/below $1200/oz. v can go up to a tgt lvl 1452-62.

very long term tgts are about $1800-1850/oz after a good amount of correction below $1000/oz i.e after 5-v completes near 1450 etc.

on mcx my short to medium term tgt was about Rs 19250 and 20000/10gms, it made high about 20028and currently facing resistance on one of the trendlines from high of may 2009. if gold still rallies up and only when takes that lvl as well as the trendline out then can rally to roughly 22000. minor support currently is at 19250 and strong support for gold is at 17500.

mkt ahead...nifty 04th nov 2010

on monday, after the huge gap up opening and and maintaining the gains through the day it was suspected that perhaps nifty might again challenge the breakout level 6152, coming up after making a low of 5937 on last friday.

yday's gap up and breakout close has taken it further away from a possibility of movement to the prev expected 5800 lvl on downside. the trading volumes were not quite satisfactory. however there are imp resistances on dow near 11300 and on nifty slightly above 5200. so, if its just a bounce or fresh rally difficult to say at the moment.

there was also a falling wedge type pattern on nifty eod charts which was broken out from on monday. if correct then it has min lower tgt 6243 and min upper tgt of 6340, somewhere near the lifetime high. its a buy on dips for short term but the sl is quite deep from here.

we are still in the euphoria zone and till now no major surprises on earnings front, so only a slight increase upgrade on nifty eps can be seen, which has slightly lowered the rapidly rising valuations, but still in that overexpensive zone.

as we know that liquidity pumping in the euphoric situations can take the mkt to much higher levels than anticipated, so whenever the lifetime high of year 2008 is broken on large volumes, the long term tgts can be as high as 6700/7000 .i.e 10% higher.