coming day's view on mkt...

nifty played near 4325-62 area today which is 38.2%-50% ret of its rise 4203-4521, so a bounce here upto 4400 is possible further bullishness above it upto 4470, on the contrary breaking below 4325 it can head toward a test of 4200 recent low. on a positional closing basis its important that 4159 should hold mkt becomes much bearish below it.

latest nifty p/e chart...

coming support is the circled area near/below 15 p/e approx 3550 on nifty.

rangebound markets...

presently 4200 to 4470 is the nifty range in which trading is taking place or i may like to call it a neutral zone below which bears will be active and bulls above it upto 4770 etc. hence positional traders can trade on breakout/down from the zone with proper sl.

my latest ew update...

one of the greatest advantages of using elliott wave analysis is prediction of market direction and its likely behaviour much earlier for taking medium to long term investing/trading decisions. the flip side is due to its complicated nature one cannot be very sure if its the right count or analysis one is making and if it is terribly wrong then one can also lose a lot if proper exit lvls are not kept.

so anyone reading this ew analysis is requested to do own study and maintain own discretion.

i had expressed some doubt on B completion and opening of C down of second zigzag ABC in ABC-X-ABC formation after january 2008 in dire straits.

now looking at the degrees of waves present within the 3790-4650(4637) upmove, it does look like B is over and C is on, if this is so then recent high 4650(4637) will be the intermediate peak in short term and rally now to be used to exit long positions.

internal structure within wave C:

sub-wave C-1 has ended at 4203.55 with internal waves i,ii,iii,iv,v shown as in above chart,

C-2 upmove is on with tgt 4370-4472(a striking similarity to the tgts according to my previous post http://valuetrading.blogspot.com/2008/08/magic-of-channels-trendlines-and-moving.html,

then C-3 will open down with a tgt 3770(taking 2 end as 4472),

then C-4 up from 3770 takes it to 4040,

then last sub-wave of C i.e C-5 opens down to tgt 3550-3606, again a striking similarity with tgts achieved by my techno-fundamentals i.e p/e chart http://valuetrading.blogspot.com/2008/08/nifty-pe-chart.html.

(note: even if iam wrong in considering C is going and making projections on the downsides and by chance if B is still on, even then its limit is 4770 since B in a zigzag will not exceed 61.8% ret of A, a move above that now will call for a change in my current ew counts and will change the larger outlook on market, till then just enjoy reading)

-abhay r somkuwar.

magic of channels, trendlines and moving averages...

indicative supports and resistances on nifty chart.

if overcomes immediate resistance near 4367/98 will next face major resistance near 4470, major support currently near 4160(from spot nifty chart above).