mkt ahead 14th aug 2009...

sometimes actual trading(intraday or eod watching chart/price) is much simpler than putting a view or analysis of the likely mkt movement and lvls of support/resis on a day-to-day basis.

it was given in view on 7th aug 2009 and 12th aug 2009 posts that medium term uptrend was still on till 4380 was not broken on closing basis and some bounce can be expected if its held.

thats exactly what happened. intraday support came near 4360(an earlier support lvl) and the imp 4380-4388 held again nicely eod basis resulting in a sharp tradeable and profitable bounce in last two days and short term trend has also turned up above 4510.

nifty has retraced more than 61.8% of fall from 4732, so the next lvl to watch is 4644(76.4% ret) and resis line near 4672-4675.

but if profit booking takes place from here then it may come down to 4516/4500. closing below 4510 makes it a bit weak in short term.


the falling dollar for the third straight day is helping equity and commodities mkt rally up.

mcx:

copper has moved up strongly and reached our tgt of 300 odd given when it traded near 267 lvl(pls refer july 24th 2009 and july 30 2009 posts).
3500 proving to be big resistance for crude and 15000 for gold, till these are not crossed, a bigger bullish move is not expected.

12th august 2009...

intraday positive divergence on nifty chart with holding the imp supports near 4400 resulted in an intraday bounce, perfectly playing in between previously given fibo lvls 4397 and 4510. nifty gets further bearish if closes below 4380-4388. so far its in a medium term uptrend above that lvl, but the short term downtrend is still on. so no case of any fresh positional longs as of now.

profit booking is also happening in dow jones and s&p 500 and many global indices/commodities.

as earlier marked on charts they had completed 38.2% ret of their big fall and profit booking was due.

although still in uptrend these US and other imp indices have to be closely watched from now on for any bearishness/signs of reversal as the dollar index seems to be headed higher.

nfty futures chart...