nifty for friday, 19th oct 2007...

medium term trend is broken by a small margin today by nifty and such a situation is bearish however a couple of closings in the red will confirm this. but bounce on good news is possible.

immediate resistances 5429/5453/5525.
supports 5269/5107/5000/4930/4530

fiis were net sellers in cash again today to the order of Rs.1130 crores and diis bought in very small amounts in cash(provisional figures).

in f&o segment high turnover of Rs.110563.83 crores was recorded. fiis sold net Rs.4221.90 crores. it is known that the fiis have a very large impact upon the direction of indian stock mkts. nifty future traded at a huge 32 point discount to spot adjusted at close and at one time was as high as 151 points, an indication of large amount of shorts being built up in nifty futures.

further update on my ew count...

yday i had assumed wave v to start from the low of 5107.30 . this is still in reckoning as long as the low of 5107.30 is not broken in coming days and upward rally begins.

however, i have an alternative wave count looking at todays movement.

in this i have assumed wave iv has not ended and is currently undergoing a complex flat type of correction. as such, the downside is only upto 5100 to 5045 according to it.

latest update on my ew count...

i would say i made a perfect ew count. refer nifty ew chart below. today the wave iv made low of 5107.30 down 600 points from recent high of 5708.35. i had projected a downmove of about nearly 700 points earlier.

i assume wave v has now started from 5107.30 with a tgt of 6200. but for confirmation it has to cross and close above 5708.35.

positional shorts should not be initiated at this stage, buy on dips is a better strategy in view of the above wave count observation..

nifty and sensex both are very near to the upper end of the rising channel on their respective charts.

nifty if closes at present lvl will break very short term trendline support, the next trendline support comes near 5375.

downside lvls are 5650-5500-5438-5400-5261-5210-5085.

bulls eye...

as mentioned earlier, my technical lvl was 5680/5682, and nifty made a high today exactly at this lvl.

a long white bullish candle with nearly no shadows is formed.

tomorrows nifty support is at 5590/5525/5344.
if 5682 is taken out on the upside, then the next resistance is at 5727/5771/5800.

buy tcs call option strike 1100 or 1200 for 50% gain in 2-3 days. or tcs fut buy at cmp or above 1077 for tgt1 1090 tgt2 1105 sl 1074.

buy indiacem 320 strike call option near cmp.

5600 is taken out, the next lvl to watch is 5680 where some profit booking can come in, after that 5771 is not far away.

nifty for monday...

a bearish engulfing candle was formed on friday closing but its not a reversal pattern as yet. strong short term trendline support is at 5300. though the rsi is showing some -ve divergence, it is also testing its support trendline and these is a chance of it bouncing back.