one year completed for correction...

exactly today one year ago the multi-year bull run of 5 years got halted and today the rampant bears who mercilessly hammered the indian stock market and eroded portfolios of individuals as well as large mkt participants to dirt lvls, completes its one year in office.

this period has been very much disturbing globally for businesses with scams, bankrupty, historic collapses, economies going into recession and now job losses and slow to negative growths seem to hinder a bullish scenario for a long period of time.

a 3 year bear market phase cannot be ruled out, the sharpest decline has occurred and occurring in its first year, so the remaining one or two years of this bear market could at best be sideways if not down.

just as a long term top is formed at extremely high valuations and runaway technicals, stock markets usually find their feet at historically cheapest valuations. this is around 8-9 on p/e basis on indian stock markets which comes to around 1800-2000 lvls on nifty.

first week of feb 2009 end will be 13 months, a fibonacci number from last year bull mkt high, or 55 weeks which is also a fibonacci number. so perhaps the first downleg of the bear mkt should end by then. after which it may pullback upto 50%-61.8% of the entire correction 6357-2000(assumed), that gives figure of 4179-4700, this may happen over next one year or more. it will be just the bear mkt rally after which again market may come down, how much we don't know. the bear will not loosen its grip easily. at the moment it looks impossible but lets see how it unfolds.

my view on gold, crude, nifty and us mkts.

nymex crude

on nymex crude so far my view has been very accurate. when it had crossed $100/bbl i had said we should be expecting $150/bbl and when it went around there i had said on shoutbox of vfm forum and elsewhere that it may correct to $108/bbl, when it slipped more i had posted on blog giving a channel support as $90/bbl, where it bounced off so well that went upto $130/bbl and came down to break $90/bbl next time.

earlier 2-3 months back i had asked shorting near $65/bbl to friends on vfm forum and on blog with tgts of $49/bbl and $38/bbl, recently asking to cover shorts in crude near $37/bbl proved correct again, and crude can now be seen bouncing back to $48/bbl, may get resisted near $49/bbl-$50/bbl, but if crossed closing basis above $50/bbl its likely to head toward $64/bbl with some resistance near $54/bbl. thereafter we will see if it turns bullish or not, some further upper side tgts i do have in mind if it changes its trend to bullishness.


gold

gold is very volatile and difficult to trade and my view might also be wrong on this. i feel that currently gold is in short to intermediate term uptrend from $681. trend is still up and on weekly chart also macd has made bullish crossover so shorts should be avoided, but on daily chart there are signs of some profit booking to come near $900-$950 region. it seems like a counter corrective upward rally to me in gold which in ew counts looks like b wave of larger flat corrective. so although gold is on upmove i would not suggest fresh longs now for safe players. shorters can only short if the macd turns bearish. my strategy is patiently wait for gold to come down to buy, it may take a long time to come down, some tgts earlier i had given were $540/$330 on long term in next one year or so. if it does so, then a very good opportunity might come for long term investors to buy on those dips, will have to be patient enough to wait.


nifty

as i have been regularly posting ew charts on nifty on blog, it can be seen that nifty is still in wave C-4 of second corrective of double combination ABC-X-ABC.

C-4 has been assumed developing as a flat corrective of which two waves A and B are over and third wave C is going on as an impulse with tgts 3113(done)/3257/3490.

after all the 5 subwaves of C of C-4 flat are over, then downwave C-5 will begin with earlier given tgts 2200/2000/1670 etc.

here again as pointed out earlier, the lower support trendline on eod charts is important on closing basis for continuation of intermediate uptrend.


dow jones and s&p500 (US)

both the dow jones and s&p500 are undergoing 4th wave correction and awaiting the 5th downwave. if the present upmove continues, dow jones industrials can head to 9570/10257 and s&p500 to 955/1000, earlier though those tgts were on the radar, it did'nt quite appear these indices could reach the lvls mentioned.


(disclaimer: pls read disclaimer given above)