mkt next...

positional longs yday were intact as nifty managed to close above our tsl 3589 spot.

tomorrow and monday being imp days and today being last trading day for the week, the mkt may become bit edgy hence one can either book these longs at higher lvls or keep holding with support 3530 with sl below 3496. a trader wanting to initiate fresh position should wait for a decisive brkout/brkdown(refer previous post) from wedge and/or congestion zone.

nifty rising wedge and negative div...

since early april 2009, nifty is moving in a rising wedge pattern(bearish), marked with green oval, with volumes declining and negative divergences appearing on indicators. macd is still below signal but holding the trendline, caution tsl exit 3589 for longs. also again a small congestion marked by blue oval is developing on charts, nifty will brkout from this in a couple of trading sessions and provide direction. one can trade accordingly in the direction of brkout/brkdown.

13th may 2009...

trendline support near 3535 was perfectly held and a nice bounce from there no trader would have missed the rally, it was mainly possible due to big fii buying from the afternoon. even reliance has done another brkout closing. nifty spot tsl now is 3560.

12th may 2009...

(chart courtesy:www.icharts.in)

nifty spot eod chart.

macd again showing bearish crossover after yday's downmove. the difference between this and last time a few days ago is it comes after large negative divergence on macd and rsi etc. such moves in jan 2009 had led to a downtrend.

the factors in favor of uptrend continuation are low volume on decline and holding the trendline support mentioned earlier.

strategy is buy/hold if the eod tline support is held closing basis else exit from longs if closes below it with good volumes.

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nifty ahead...

profit booking is coming near congestion brkout tgt zone 3662-3738 as well as imp fibo ret lvls 3734-3820 as shown on the nifty chart above. 3800 is a strong resis too since it offered very good support when nifty was falling. not surprising some mkt players and fiis turned small net sellers in cash and f&o on last friday taking some profits off the table. positional longs have a tsl on trendline and congestion brkout support near 3500 which is clearly seen on the chart.