market in coming days...

i had mentioned about some intermediate bounces in this downmove currently on.

if friday's low i.e 3199 is held then nifty can bounce upto a tgt of 3570 in coming days where it might face selling pressure again.

5 year comparative returns on some global indices...

our mkt fallen so much from jan 2008 top, but still looks better after comparing with other global indices on a five year time frame.

update on ew analysis...

i admit of marking completion of C-3-(3) on 8th oct 2008 without confirming same, but from todays downmove it still seems to be going on, so will mark only when it bottoms out, any inconvenience caused due to this to the readers is unintentional and is regretted.

okay so if our wave labelling is correct, then in coming days two volatile but tradeable bounces and two declines(one small one big each respectively) are expected before wave C and bigger wave A completes.

the long term picture...

to me the decline in mkt from jan 2008 uptil now appears like wave 2 of third impulse of super cycle started from 1980. the supercycle wave one lasted for 12 years, corrective wave two of supercycle lasted for 11 years and the current supercycle wave three therefore should go on for atleast 12 years or more from 2003 onwards. the trendline support for sensex on this degree wave count on my charts is around 6100 presently and will keep shifting up.

as suggested by our friend praveen shamain, i agree that the downmove from jan 2008 would take shape as one large wave A.

these waves that i labelled as ABC-X-ABC will be reduced to W-X-Y and finally as big A which will complete in this year 2008 somewhere near yday's low or 2997, after which 50% or 61.8% retracement of this big A(might be about 5075 on nifty if current bottom is 2997) takes form of big upward wave B in the first half of next year followed by big wave C terminating closer to 2000. therefore it makes sense to average investment holdings at bottom that we get/got near 2997 now(2997 because it is fibo 61.8% of total bull run from 920 to 6357) i.e C-5 or big A and sell them near big B completion. i expect a simple big zigzag ABC corrective. time period less than 2 years is not allowable for big ABC to complete. of course all this is speculative in nature but lets see if it comes true, some magnitudes and/or structures if change will have to be taken care of as the waves proceed.

abhay r somkuwar.

happy dussehra

wishing a happy dussehra to all the friends, well-wishers, ta followers, learners and visitors of this blog.

update on my ew analysis...

so far no waves counts have been changed in my clear cut analysis.

C is running fast downward. today C-3-(3) is completed at 3331 with C-3-(3)-v being an extended wave. for today the nifty channel lvl on downside was 3307(see today's nifty and sensex channel post). it is to be noted that today's low 3331 was exact fibo lvl on my charts.

the C-3-(4) which started up from 3331 has a tgt of 3700 in coming days.

in my ew analysis nifty has to go further down, after C-3-(4) completes, C-3-(5) will open down, followed by C-4 up and C-5 down where the C wave structure will complete.

since further downwaves are still to go on, the probable tgts will be given later.

nifty and sensex channels...

watch for supports on channel lower tline.

nifty/sensex lvls for today...

trend bearish.

nifty lowerside 3720,3743, upperside 3865,3910

sensex lowerside 12078,12300, upperside 12631,12730.