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    Thursday, October 9, 2008

    happy dussehra

    wishing a happy dussehra to all the friends, well-wishers, ta followers, learners and visitors of this blog.

    Posted by abhay r somkuwar at 8:54 AM

    3 comments:

    Praveen Vishnu Shamain said...

    Dear Mr. Abhay,

    Happy Dussehra to you too.

    May Goddess Durga bless you and each of your family members, on this auspicious day.

    Congratulations for correctly predicting this market movements in the last 6 months.

    I have a question on your previous EW update.

    - Do you consider the ongoing C (of which C-4 & C-5 are yet to be completed) wave structure, a part of Big A or the end of bear market ?

    My small time analysis and reading of various articles suggest me that we are currently in Big A, which is very near to its end.

    Big B should ideally retrace 50% to 61.8% of the fall from January '08. Big B should end by calendar year 2008.

    Finally, Big C, which can fail, or form a double bottom with Big A or extend, going into first half of next year.

    Just wanted to know your bigger time frame (say 1 year) views. because, I value them.

    Thanks in advance.

    With Regards,

    October 9, 2008 at 1:22 PM
    abhay r somkuwar said...

    dear praveen,

    yes i agree with u.

    the down waves from jan that i labelled as ABC-X-ABC will be reduced to W-X-Y and finally as big A which will complete in this year 2008 somewhere near yday's low or 2997, after which 50% or 61.8% retracement of this big A(might be about 5075 on nifty if current bottom is 2997) takes form of big upward wave B in the first half of next year(many analysts will probably confuse this with fresh bull run but we will distinguish it by a corrective structure) followed by big wave C terminating closer to 2000. therefore it makes sense to average investment holdings at bottom that we get/got near 2997 now(2997 because it is fibo 61.8% of total bull run from 920 to 6357) i.e C-5 or big A and sell them near big B completion. i expect a simple big zigzag ABC corrective. time period less than 2 years is not allowable for big ABC to complete. of course all this is speculative in nature but lets see if it comes true, some magnitudes and/or structures if change will have to be taken care of as the waves proceed.

    regards.

    abhay r somkuwar.

    October 9, 2008 at 9:13 PM
    Praveen Vishnu Shamain said...

    Thanks for the prompt reply, Abhay.

    With Regards,

    October 10, 2008 at 11:24 AM

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