market ahead...10th feb 2011...

lots of damage done on the charts and they have turned very bearish perhaps a bearish phase is getting started although nifty is trading near trendchannel support 5200 now(should not consistently close below 5150 to prevent continued downmove toward 4700-4800).

any bullishness on charts presently will be above 5900 which is far away.

short to medium term investors can use any such bounce from lower lvls to trade long, if any close above 5373/5389 this friday, bias will be positive.

strategy/outlook for intermediate(6 months to 1 year) and long term(1 year or more) investors use any pullback over next 3-6 weeks to exit all delivery positions at better prices. use pullback which is possible initially to 5550 and then upto 5850 etc.  if during any such pullback over 2 months it trades above say 5900 then do not exit.
 
if any bullishness/buying opportunity comes at any time or lvls for such delivery positions/investors then it will be updated here.

***these are my views only, pls read the disclaimer above.

mkt ahead...09th feb 2011...

clearly nifty has entered bearish intermediate cycle. no good buying has taken place and selling has still not subsided. the 5350-5400 crucial support zone was broken on eod charts and nifty just managed to close above 5300 where some small supports do exist. but a lot of damage seen on charts which can possibly make the slide continue toward 5200 in current downmove.

if the reader can recall, many days ago i had observed that if nifty starts trading below the rising trendchannel and also below 5690, then it will be approaching its lower end at somewhere near 5200 from where a pullback can occur.

positive news is right now it is in oversold territory and so good chance of that bounce happening in a couple of days, which might be used by medium to long term players to further sell again or exit.

in next couple of days closing above 5390/5400 will be better for upward movement of the nifty. if the resistance of 5562(which was given as sl for positional short players) is somehow taken out, then movement till 5750-5800 can take place. if such exit at higher lvl again takes place without showing bullishness on charts, then there is a danger of testing 4700-4800 zone over the medium to intermediate term, which is a very important support zone for maintaining the long term tgts on upside.

existing positional traders who were short can think of booking/covering shorts near to 5200 if that lvl comes, and suggested to keep tsl near 5450 with sl 5562.

posting again the rising trendchannel chart of nifty for the benefit of the blog reader: