things to be noted...

while i have given various lvls on the downside for nifty arrived at by various techniques it is only for academic purposes.

predicting the exact targets or picking the mkt bottom or top is difficult, more so in a bear phase. hence for someone who is following the markets as a trader or as an investor, it is best to follow the prevailing trend(which is pointing down currently) and not worry too much about the actual targets.

nifty yearly trend channel...

trend channel study on nifty yearly gives a tgt of 3090. previous yearly lows may act as intermediate support lvls.

nifty worst case scenario...

after the bail out package and indo-us nuclear deal is passed by the senate some analysts have been talking of bear mkt getting over and fresh bull run has started. but on technical charts the bearish scenario has'nt changed at all it still remains a bear mkt rally with sell on rise. the worst case scenario does'nt take into account short term rallies or bullishness. till we don't see any indications of a medium to long term uptrend developing on charts, we consider the bear phase to go on pricewise and timewise.

we will consider some techniques in case bear mkt goes on and hits lows.

nifty worst case tgts:

1)fibo:

taking 61.8% retracement of bull run 920 to 6357, the tgt according to fibo is 2997.

2)elliott wave:

after the impulse structure, "generally, a corrective wave will take the market to the area of the 4th wave of one lesser degree...especially when the corrective wave itself is a 4th wave. In other cases, the market will often find support at the top of wave 1 of one lesser degree." this sentence gives clue of the likely tgt of the ongoing correction.

the tgt according to this is either (somewhere between 3774 to 2595) or finally 2014.

3)p/e chart:

lowest ever mkt p/e was 10.84, accordingly the final lvl comes to 2522.


timewise correction:

as pointed out earlier it took slightly more than 5 years(from year 2003 to 2008-09) for the bull run to complete, so timewise atleast a period of 2 years from jan 2008 onwards is ideal for correction before next bull run starts. during the deep correction nifty will slide to lows and then consolidate. in sideways correction it may move up but will be resisted by the yearly trend channel.


abhay r somkuwar.

nifty and sensex view...

so indeed its the C-3-(3) running and going down furiously, supports on downward sloping trend channel on my charts is near 11000 on sensex and below 3500 on nifty. 1000 dma is also near 3500 on charts. lets see if this this gives some support to nifty. of course, this could be intermediate lvls if bear mkt has to last for longer period of time.

update on my ew analysis...

nifty has broken the imp 3990 lvl and closed below it, expecting bounce in a day or two, a pullback only upto 4117 means C-3-(3)-i running, while if goes above 4117 upto 4300 etc means C-3-(2) still going on. whichever the case nifty will come back to test 3790 and head to 3500 etc in this our preferred view which is described earlier.