mkt ahead...25th feb 2011...

it was said nifty has entered into bearish intermediate cycle and likely to move toward 4800 in medium to intermediate term and to exit delivery positions on pullback to 5500 and 5800.

the 5550-5600 bounce is done, but a larger pullback after consolidation near 5400 was expected after budget. but yday's sudden selling broke the nifty below imp 5380 lvl again, as such it might again test the uptrend channel lower side. at this point it is not very clear at what lvl it will find strong buying support.

therefore long positions should not be initiated unless it shows a short term bullishness on eod charts.

due to volatility and sudden swings, intraday trading should best be avoided unless one is very quick and maintains strict stoplosses and carries small positions.

mkt ahead...revisiting my views on crude...

posted again on 5th dec 2010 and staying firm on my long term views on international crude price likely movement and tgts which has been always very very accurate.

here it goes for those who missed reading(http://valuetrading.blogspot.com/2010/12/follow-up-on-my-crude-long-term-tgts.html):
"follow-up on my crude long term tgts...


on stock market forums readers may be aware of the accuracy of my outlook on crude.

2.5-3 yrs ago on chats and discussion forum/s i had given major tgt 100 and after crossing that straightaway major long term tgt of 150 and no more when even most of the big international fund houses and brokerages and others were predicting 200+ dollars per bbl. accordingly we had reaction from near 148. after which my tgts on downside was 100 initially. on breaking 100 the tgt was revised to fresh one at 70 and when that was also reached i gave a final bottom for crude at 34(some people interested in crude futures and followed the technical forum had actually covered their shorts there). crude bottomed near 35 and then started its pullback.

this year too(early 2010) elsewhere on the blog my major tgts were 90 and 105-110 and 70 as a good support lvl. i had also said so far it was only a pullback of the big downmove that we had in the second half of year 2008.

we've seen somewhere just near/below crude taking support and then slowly moving up.

we now have a breakout on the upperside on crude after almost seven months. my tgt of 90 is done and near to 92 some minor profit booking might be possible. if it rallies up and crosses 110 in intermediate to long term then a relook at revising the long term tgts again will have to be done."

accordingly crude reacted from 92.5-93 and underwent minor correction (85) as given in my views.

now crude has crossed above 93 and moving up whatever maybe the news, it was projected long time back by me, chances are probably the long term tgts could be achieved if this bullishness continues in coming months.
(views based on technicals and ew theory)

mkt ahead...21st feb 2011...

nifty pulled back above 5550 and moved to 5600 but a swift slide in second half on friday brought it toward 5450 lvl.

at the moment seems like quick profit booking. if 5375 is held on closing basis then it can remain range bound for some days and then again may try to move toward 5600 odd lvls.

5800 and above it faces resistance again on its upmove in medium term.

the follow up on my earlier views on nifty is as given in chart below: