with lowering of CRR had an overwhelming response on mkt with money flowing in, in Jan and Feb 2012 we saw it gaining almost 1100 points from the lows of about 4550. this also led to breakout on long term charts above the crucial 5200 lvls and imp lvl that was also a resis on falling weekly trendline from the top of 6338. thereafter bad news from govt side policy indecisions mild budget etc has led to profit booking from fiis and diis alternately and created a confusing trading environment on day to day or even short to medium basis.
eventhough RBI has recently reduced repo rate by unexpected 50 basis points mkt was not enthused in its response, instead we saw hammering of the bank stocks.
April month is ending today it is imp for nifty to save the crucial 5159 monthly breakdown lvl at the same time to gain atleast 12-13 more points today to close month above 5222. since the trading range is getting narrower and narrower some breakout/ breakdown can happen soon, for it to happen on upperside(in current uptrend) it is good for it to give a brkout above 5267 May end which will bring momentum in the mkt and new investment for longer term. new Banking laws amendments, fuel policy reforms, steps toward reducing current account deficit. fiscal consolidation, full clarity on GAAR etc(till 8th May), fall in inflation, further RBI interest rate reduction and better quarterly results will hold the key on positive side.
