further ew moves...

yday i said "now on nifty we should watch the fibo ret(2862/2746/2631) of this upmove from 2253-3240. if not held then previous low will be likely to be tested."

during the day nifty slid upto 2860 and bounced to 3005 then again came down below 2900.

now if 2860 is broken these downside lvls will come.


C-4, C-5 or big B, so what wave we are in right now?

C-5 will be confirmed closing below 2631, for now its both options big B and C-4 for us. if big B is correct(which is doubtful) then rally up over recent highs from any of the above given lvls, if C-4 is correct(our present bias) then nifty will get into a rangebound movement after hitting above lvls for few days before breaking down. in C-4 scenario upper limit will be probably 3100.

mkt the next move...

yday the upmove got resisted exactly on my resistance line earlier marked on sensex monthly chart previously posted here.

now on nifty we should watch the fibo ret(2862/2746/2631) of this upmove from 2253-3240. if not held then previous low will be likely to be tested.

elliott wave chart and market view.

nifty ew tentative wave counts chart.

we already discussed the previous low being significant pricewise (C=1.618xA) and timewise(time equal to A leg). so nifty may well have made the low or will make in coming days if above ew chart is correct. with other techniques like lowest p/e etc it was proved beyond doubt about the correctness of the tgt.

if last leg of C i.e C-5 is pending, that can terminate near the previous low, then every big dip from hereon gives a great buying opportunity to investors to pick their favourite stocks(like bluechips ril,sbin,lt etc) at very attractive p/e, p/b valuations in this month.

even if all the downwaves of big wave A are over by any chance and big wave B started as some friends are suggesting, even then the mkt remains buy on dips, and since bear mkts last longer than 2-3 years it makes sense to either sell the averaged holdings near completion of big upmove B in first half of next year or hold with a long term term view.

nifty view...

there is a bullish breakaway gap 2920-2964 on nifty spot that can be sl for positional longs, if trades below the lower end of gap for sometime, it may turn bearish.

update on my ew...

i have my wave counts but sometimes its best not to disclose and follow the next move of mkt to show direction, i am expecting a good downmove after nifty achieving the tgt of 2880-2921, a bigger upmove now will call for a slight change in the wave labelling, so far none of the counts have been changed.

if my wave analysis is correct by any chance, then a lot of time is still there for bottoming out. on the other hand pricewise i.e larger C tgt 2209 and minm timewise nifty has already made a significant low at 2253.