08th sep 2007 update on my elliot wave count

so as per my expectation the subwave iii-(i) most possibly terminated at 4547.75 and iii-(ii) has opened down. this can go down upto 4339.35 or 4210.60 after which upward wave iii-(iii) will open up targeting atleast 4884.90(max 5222.05) or 4756.15(max 5093) depending upon the degree of correction of of iii-(ii).

so it is advised to buy attractive stocks on declines in the current downmove.

at present iam ruling out 4000 or even 4100 following the given wave structure, as need arises the stucture will have to be changed for changed scenario as of now it is kept intact by me.

calls for yday zooming, no sl were hit

litl futures(given buy above 299) today closed 305.85 remain long with tsl of 298 t1 311 t2 316
rel futures(given buy above 830) today closed 865.50 remain long with tsl of 853 t1 870 t2 881
shipping corp(given buy above 196) futures closed 203.70 remain long with tsl 195 t1 209 t2 213

litl high was 309.95 so returns are Rs.9307, closing basis returns Rs. 5822.
rel high was 869.90 so returns are 21945, closing basis returns Rs. 19525.
shipping corp high was 207.70 so returns are Rs18200, closing basis returns Rs.12320.

all these in just 2 days of trading.
there were atleast 1-2 opportunities during the day to buy at the recommended price on 5th sep 2007.

all calls rocking.

my elliot wave count

updated upto the 6th of sep 2007

the 3rd major of the 5th primary wave is on.

counts:
primary cycle:
wave I: 920-2014.65
wave II: 2014.65-1292,20
wave II:1292.20-3774.15
wave IV:3774.15-2595.65
wave V:2595.65-???

inside primary wave V:
major cycle:
wave 1:2595.65-4245.30
wave 2:4245.30-3554.50
wave 3:3554.50-???

inside major cycle 3:
wave i:3554.50-4647.95
wave ii:4647.95-4002.20
wave iii:4002.20-???

do not remain short in the mkt as we are in the major 3rd (impulse) wave of primary 5th wave. The target for primary 5th wave i had calculated and posted on http://www.moneycontrol.com/ one year ago, the primary 5th wave should have terminated either at 4367 or near 5461. The target for major cycle 3 is coming to atleast 5200.

mkt had earlier reacted and come down after touching near 4367, just 4 points short.

the tgt for the upmove of the major wave 3-i, i have been posting on vfmdirect messageboard, which i had calculated at 4672. As u can see the 3-i wave actually terminated nearby at 4647.95 just 22 points short.

currently i think most probably we are near to complete V-5-3-iii-(i) and V-5-3-iii-(ii) will open down, confirmation awaited (see chart).

confirmation of wave iii (and also sub-wave iii-(iii)) is crossing the top of 4647.95.

Hence, any dips in wave 3 will be a buying opportunity.

major wave 3-ii termination point is also given in my nifty weekly chart at 4000 exactly on the supporting blue trendline.

5th sep 2007

today i predicted nifty high(4502-03), low(near 4465) and close(4480(+-3)) perfectly on http://www.vfmdirect.com/ shoutbox as many times earlier too.

mkt is likely to consolidate further in coming days, 4400 is imp and should be held but if broken i see the support coming up at 4325.

futures trading lvls for 5th sep 2007
lanco infratech buy above 299 for t1 303 t2 308 s1 297 sl 290
reliance energy buy above 830 for t1 852 t2 861 sl 815
shipping corp buy above 196 for t1 203 t2 210 sl 186.

nifty negative divergences

sign of a big correction in the making?

negative divergence seen in nifty weekly charts both on macd and rsi indicators since april 2006.

negative divergence seen only on rsi on nifty monthly charts since may 2006.

nifty weekly technicals

just have a look at the nifty weekly chart. red and pink lines are resistance lines and green and blue lines are acting as support lines. it is very clear that earlier, the shorting opportunities were available on break on downside from these lines and shorts covered on the strong blue support line at bottom(approx 4000) and nifty bounced on short covering and some buying there. now it is above the green line(approx 4230) and upmove is now resisted by the pink resistance line which comes in the region of 4525-4534 in the coming week. If the pink line is also taken off then the red line provides resistance above 4600. chartically, the support can be provided at/near 4300(not shown) and also by the green line. a nice short strangle strategy can be worked out here.