mkt ahead 13th jan 2010...

it was said tuesday or wednesday one should be cautious of profit booking. exactly that's what happened.

particularly aban which reached our tgt 1530 and same day(tuesday) reacted and came under heavy profit booking which may continue till next monday or tuesday. downside lvl/support is placed at 1360/1325 if 1430 doesn't hold.

whereas nifty still remained in its near term downtrend and was not able to cross its eod resistance lvls and led to further profit booking even on good iip data and infosys results!

however support of 5160 is near and bulls may like to protect it on closing basis. downtrend in nifty may continue till friday.

major supports for medium term uptrend are just below 5000.

nifty_pe..valuation perspective...

for valuation study purpose i have divided my old and updated nifty pe chart into 4 valuation zones:

C: cheap valuations
F: fair valuations
R: rich valuations
E: expensive/euphoric valuations.

so as the reader can see we are currently in the R zone(pe 23.43).

above the grey tline upto 28.47 there will be euphoria and mkt gets too expensive.

with the current eps without any upgrades but simply on huge liquidity nifty could possibly rise to 6377(i.e) near previous lifetime high). that would be euphoric and would be prone to danger to further upmove or subject to sharp correction.

to keep it rising but still in F to R range, good results, earnings growth and earnings upgrades are necessary.

-abhay r somkuwar.

mkt ahead 11th jan 2010...

as expected nifty has broken above 5183 and reached the first tgt 5300 as given in previous posts. expected small profit booking did come in on last thursday and friday as given in my 6th jan post earlier.

nifty may well achieve the next tgt 5388/5400 in the near term. but crossing that in near term would be a bit difficult as profit booking may arise. short term support 4928, short to medium term tgt if once 5428 is crossed would be 5545/5580. over intermediate to long term 4538, if held closing basis consistently, then a much larger tgt can be possible.

since nifty may face some resistance near 5400 one should a bit cautious, some profit booking possible after tuesday or wednesday.

nifty intraday to near term trend is down. intraday resis 5250/5283, would be near term bullish above this.


aban performed very well, it has moved up 15 odd percent from its cmp of 1284 to 1517 since the bullish near term view was given last monday here, achieving all the near term targets.

revising the near to short term tgts now to 1530 and 1680, support 1320. i had given an investment buy on dips in this counter on diwali for medium to intermediate term, the tgts for that are 2250(couple of months) and 4200(upto a year) if the stock and the overall mkt trend remains strong and up. some profit booking may well come along the way.


for more short term stock related views or asking queries visit my other blog http://eyesonthecash.blogspot.com(link provided on top of the page under "positional cash fno" section).