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***all analysis are based on self chart study only, actual trading gains may vary.
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    Monday, April 25, 2011

    mkt ahead...24th apr 2011...

    since mcx gold has exceeded our intermediate to long term tgt of 22000 and no signs of profit booking. now raising the tgts to 22800 and 23800 and for very long term remains at 27500 or so. medium term support 21000 and sl below 20800.

    rangebound trade in nifty(although its in sideways down short term) between 5730 and 5950. near term trade accordingly. fresh positional longs only above(with sl 5940) or shorts only below(with sl 5800) this range for medium term although its in a medium term uptrend since mid-feb of this year.

    5 comments:

    Sujatha said...

    Hi abhay

    how r u and family??

    Due to hectic domestic work , exams, now holidays not able to post often but visiting :)

    gold/silver - It's mind blowing + worrying factor for middle class. Do you think it's manipulated one?? anything may happen at any time for downside? but as per chart u hv clearly mentioned "no profit booking yet" If silver correction comes means, will the gold follow?? If v r in bull market then where it will end and when will the bear market starts? before that "i will get ready" for coming to commodity now sticking with nifty + options.

    thanks n advance and regards.

    abhay r somkuwar said...

    hi Sujatha, yes iam good how are you?

    in commodities and stock markets its usually the case, the third or the last leg of the rally is so powerful that they fly at breathtaking speed beyong imagination. and it is also a fact that they come down again with similar speed that people can't get out. thats why we see that in bear periods a lot of big(and small) funds/brokerage houses go bust and cease to then exist because they get carried away with their trades and refuse to accept that someday it would move in opposite direction too i.e euphoria and bull mkts end on euphoria. so an end is definitely there and it is prudent to book profits regularly. as u can see these are multi year cycles and on gold etc i have marked 5th primary and cyclical waves which are final ones but still the internal waves are yet to complete. if the revised tgts do not reach then anytime large profit booking or bearish periods start then one can exit and still carry home decent profits. factors acc to me such as, the US dollar has weakened a lot and coupled with very low interest rates there, the money is buying into etfs of gold and commodities, so many new funds now, this liquidity is constantly coming into them. it is seen that lot of the commodities fall or rise together so correction can be together( right now copper is not participating in this rally). so we can enjoy as long as the party is there and if we are participating then we should be getting out of the part before the music(and esp) the lights are out:)

    regards.

    Sujatha said...

    thanks abhay for brief reply. i saved it. it's a lesson also for me. taking a break.

    will join with mkt by next week :)

    regards

    Sujatha said...

    Hi Abhay

    Waited for your "new post" lost patience, hence posting.

    pls. post your views. thanks in advance.

    regards

    abhay r somkuwar said...

    sujatha hi!
    as i was about to post today on 'nifty mkt ahead...' i saw ur message...thnx views been updated.

    kindly watch twitter feeds also for near term trading views/strategies on nifty.

    regards.

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