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past short term calls follow-up/performance***(stocks to watch)

date,stock,reco price,high,% gain at high

***all analysis are based on self chart study only, actual trading gains may vary.

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    Sunday, January 27, 2008

    nifty fundamental valuations...

    the fundamentally life time high valuations were cautioned since many months.

    on 8th jan, after touching the peak p/e mkts did make a big crash.

    anything above max p/e would have been a bubble i.e euphoric run. technically mkt should spend lot of time at lower side(consolidate) without breaking the low.

    any possible upmove now above 6357 can be justfied in next financial year after couple of months, after factoring in next year earnings

    lets have a look at min(13 p/e) and max(28.50 p/e) valuations(historic).


    nifty (min): 225*13(times)=2925.
    nifty(max): 225*28.50(times)=6412.50.


    expected averaged earnings growth of nifty50 stocks=15%
    projected eps=225*(1+15/100)=258.

    these figures of nifty(min) and nifty(max) also agree strikingly with technical tgts in case of bear and bull mkts.

    by abhay r somkuwar.

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