mkt ahead 23rd nov 2009...

lets first have a look again at my nifty p/e chart with the circle marked providing resistance to the upmove(profit booking line).



from the last two posts,

Monday, November 9, 2009:

"to establish a stronger uptrend, the nifty has to move and stay above 4854-4864, if that happens then chances of touching 4937/5030 could be there, since the us dollar index is still supportive of some more of the rally in the global equity mkts continuing."

Monday, November 16, 2009:

"if nifty stays sideways to up for a some more days then a firmer uptrend may get established.

a few closings above 5030 if supported by global mkts, the nifty would be again more bullish to reach the previous high of 5182, if any profit booking comes and gets limited to 4880/4860."

nothing more to add, the profit booking/whipsaw did come and got limited above 4880/4860, also the tsl for longs as always was excellent enough to protect the positions.

nifty is losing momemtum but seems moving toward 5182 in the current upmove, once small resistances 5080/5110.50 are crossed, if the global scenario remains stable. thereafter tgts of 5250/5300/5388/5500 etc would be still open as long as the medium to intermediate trend remains up and any profit booking gets limited to 4880, iam not expecting anything more on the upper side beyond that. for monday the tsl for short term positional longs to be raised to 4990 closing basis.

nifty spot eod chart:

nifty needs to remain at least sideways or up, lets say above 4880, for a bullish crossover again of 20 dma and 50 dma, macd already had made a bullish crossover earlier.


fii's been net sellers in cash last couple of trading sessions/days.

16th nov 2009...

4854-4864 was crossed on first day and held thereafter we saw nifty getting to the first tgt, and second tgt 5030 nearly done.

if nifty stays sideways to up for a some more days then a firmer uptrend may get established.

a few closings above 5030 if supported by global mkts, the nifty would be again more bullish to reach the previous high of 5182, if any profit booking comes and gets limited to 4880/4860.

for today positional longs can raise the tsl to 4840.

all prices are on closing basis.

mkt ahead 09th nov 2009...

earlier the nifty bounce came off from exactly near 4540 which was sl lvl on range brkout that was on my radar and thankfully not broken on downside and got supported else it would have gone toward 4400 etc. allright, so the near term and near to short term trend are up but still nifty is not out of the woods as the macd and other indicators are still in negative territory. one can have a tsl such as 4740 and 4720 respectively for the longs, since chances of whipsaw are not ruled out.



nifty is still trading below the 20dma which is currently 4931 which may act as resis. to establish a stronger uptrend, the nifty has to move and stay above 4854-4864, if that happens then chances of touching 4937/5030 could be there, since the us dollar index is still supportive of some more of the rally in the global equity mkts continuing.

mkt ahead 03rd nov 2009...

back from the inauguration of beautiful and huge jungle and hill resort of one of the relatives located on mstate-mp border during the weekend. didn't get much time to update the blog.

well this is yet again a shortened week in our stock mkt.

the short/medium trend decider lvl of 4900(with 5000 tsl) given earlier got convincingly broken on the downside, setting that trend downward. sharp selling by the fiis and shorting has led nifty not holding to the lvls of 4740/4790 too and still its weak upto 4580 in the near term. in the short to medium term the downside has opened upto 4360/4400. this doesn't mean that it really has to go and test those lvls. we had gone into small reversal on equity and usd in the short term but not any major one, so the major upside tgts are still intact in the intermediate term as long as the big supports 4350 and 3900 are held. weekly resis is 4872 which needs to be crossed for near term uptrend. fiis and dii net positive cash figures to the tune of Rs. 500 odd crores each however were quite encouraging.

refer to reliance swing chart given earlier posts, it is trading quite near to the lvls of 1928/1866 marked on the chart, where it may find some good support.

all lvls mentioned are on closing basis.

nifty ahead...in for a bounce?

nifty eod(daily) chart.

nifty approaching near rsi and price support/reaction lines as shown on chart.

if these are held then a bounce can be expected say from 4786 or 4764/4790 upward(support lines on price chart), after which it has to overcome the short term falling tline(not shown) to move up.

the rsi support line is quite significant as it marks the major bottoms on nifty price chart formed in march and july 2009.

some welcome nse website new features...

live market map(on the lines of moneycontrol market map):

basic tame lite charting tool(intraday/eod):

another useful feature is the stock quotes page which remembers the last 4-5 tickers that were entered before.

then there are these market tracker, fxtracker and interest rate futures and derivatives option chains and many pages with tonnes of useful exchange daily mkt data and info for further processing and daily analysis.

mkt ahead...

nifty closed at 4997.05 slightly below 5000 lvl but above the support tline. staying above closing 5054 will be better as the trendline from march low gets broken below that. however as pointed out earlier 4900 is a strong support for maintaining the short to medium term uptrend and should not be broken else further bearishness will come upto 4740/4790. my ew tgt 5142 already done. other technical tgts are 5250/5300/5388/5545 which nifty will try to achieve if the major supports on nifty chart are held in the medium to intermediate term. however in the near term nifty looks rangebound in 4900-5100 and a small bounce from 4945 lvl is quite possible.

three charts of a perfect reliance swing trade...

9th sept 2009 chart: 17th sep 2009 chart:

as can be seen, reliance spot price reacted on given support line and tgt/s whose calculation was also given, accurately reached as shown by thick blue ovals on the chart.

diwali special stocks to watch and invest...

apart from all the stocks to watch recomm given in last few months, many of which are already giving good returns, here's some of my stock picks for medium to intermediate term.

buy on dips for atleast 20-30% returns***.

aban offshore,
larsen and toubro,
bgrenergy,
ivrclinfra,
idbi,
nagajuna const,
orchid chemicals,
powergrid,
cesc,
relcapital.

many banking stocks like andhra bank and realty stocks like dlf and hdil, oil stocks like essaroil and ongc, some it stocks like hcl-insys, metal stocks like hindalco, ster, sail, engg like laxmimachines and it education stocks like niitltd etc may continue to move up if money flow into mkt and stocks continues.

(***not for immediate gains, for those traders/investors with patience, and only if mkt supports, suggested to have a decent stoploss, pls read disclaimer given above)

दीपावली की हार्दिक शुभकामनाएं !!!!!

यह दीपावली आपके जीवन को खुशी, धन, तथा सुख एवं समृद्धि से जगमगा दें !

प्रदुषण कम फैलाएं और सेहतमंद दिवाली मनाएं !

दिवाली की ढेरों बधाइयाँ !

शुभ दीपावली २००९ !

16th oct 2009...

as given in 12th oct 2009 post nifty bounced from the support tline, reacted intraday from first resis line and then did a brkout from both the resis lines. it was also clearly mentioned that short term will be bullish above 5025 close and nifty thereafter reached upto intraday high of 5152, which was also our tgt as per ew analysis on eod charts.

the us dollar index still continues its downward journey which is helping the rally in global mkts.

positional longs are intact since 4630 and 4900 acted as safe and imp sl. presently sl for short term positional longs is 5000.

intraday trading lvls: in intraday it was weak yday and if mkt is not able to sustain above 5120 then can test supports at 5077/5065, lvls below which are 5040 and 5012. above 5120 it can go to 5152 brking above which can go upto 5200/5250 in near term.

poll results...

the dow jones poll on the blog is closed. this is ur(reader's) final opinion about what u feel how the movement in the dow jones is likely to be from hereon. remember i had asked for very long term dow movements here and not short term movements. i had not voted on this poll since i had given my opinion(case II, suprisingly its the one attracting least attention:)). thanks to everyone who participated, it helps to get some idea of how the readers view the global scenario.

case V: dow will not go down below march 2009 lows and will not go beyond 2007 high(40% respondents in favour).

case I: march 2009 lows are final and 2007 high will be taken out(18% respondents in favour).

case IV: dow will go down below march 2009 lows, get supported on/above trendline support, move up but not cross 2007 high(15% respondents in favour).

case II: dow will go below march 2009 lows but get supported on lower trendlines and move up above 2007 high(12% respondents in favour).

case III: dow will go down below march 2009 lows and go down below trendline support(12% respondents in favour).

closing the blog is a difficult decision for me. the main objective of utility of technical analysis in judging the market has been met with a very good success. hence intially, from 20th of october 2009 i won't be able to update the blog on a regular basis, say once every two weeks. some features like the calculators will be disabled since the site where they are hosted will be going down.

thanks.

mkt ahead...

as said earlier nifty is already in a near to short term profit booking downtrend but had not broken any imp support lvl. sustaining a close above 5025-5030 can set that trend to up again.

however 4900 is key lvl which has acted as a very good support, a brk on closing of which chance of nifty sliding another 100 odd points.

nifty closed below thursday low so a bit weak. however it also closed very near/above the support tline from march lows. hence might give a small bounce, to be resisted by falling resis lines on upperside near 5000 and 5040.


on hourly chart its moving in a triangle-like pattern. one may either play swing within the triangle or wait for brkout/brkdown.

safe sl for short term posi longs 4900, tsl for intermediate term 4860 closing basis, if the index remains rangebound profitable/tradeable stock specific moves can occur due to the result season going on.

some imp indices comparison...

comments given on the chart.