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past short term calls follow-up/performance***(stocks to watch)

date,stock,reco price,high,% gain at high

***all analysis are based on self chart study only, actual trading gains may vary.

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    Friday, March 27, 2009

    my thoughts on nifty ew scenario...

    friends, it is now still difficult to give the exact wave counts as nifty has rapidly turned up from 2600 lvls.

    lets recall whats been said till now in summarised form,
    1. it was said that perhaps C-5 down was running on brk below one of the earlier upwardly support tlines.
    2. it was said that either 3rd pullback or an overlapping 4th within the C-5.
    3. that since jan 2009, a 3 wave corrective structure is visible in the downmoves and upmoves.

    now very imp, all along the nifty movement, the validation 2500 lvl was not broken closing basis for confirmation of this C-5 running(therefore chance of C-4th running or any other wave counts is still there), therefore all along C-5 running was maintained as a 'tentative'(subject to change) wave count.
    nifty is still moving sideways in the same range of 2500-3200, signifying the earlier structure may not have been complete, else it would have run away too far too fast away from it(from neo theory), to start a fresh move.

    iam not in favor of posting alternative counts at one time since many possibilities can be there for every move but it would land the reader in lot of confusion, we have to think and choose the most suitable one to elliott theory. again its requested not to use ew to trade derivatives on nifty or stocks, the view on internal waves can go wrong sometimes.

    as some friends on vfmdirect forum were aware of some upward tgts like 3240/3490 etc getting revised by me earlier, but i had not explained the reasons for the same tgts revision, this was made due to the internal 3 wave structure in the sideways(flat)C-4th wave that made me think on the same, so this option of nifty going above 3100 toward 3240 etc was always open as 2500 lvl was not breached, so till now its not much surprising for nifty to climb up again to the higher lvls.

    27 march 2009...

    strong resistances 3147/3240, tline support 2930 upwards as shown on chart.
    channel brkout tgt 2807+(3147-2742)=2807+(405)=3212.

    resistance tline is also shown in second nifty chart, resis lvl as of today is around 3253 lvl.

    Tuesday, March 24, 2009

    24 march 2009...

    overseas and domestic investors speculated the Obama administration’s plan to rid banks of toxic assets will spur the growth and stock mkts globally witnessed a huge rally. earlier reported job loss claims had also fallen, whether some turnaround is happening or just a relief rally extending.

    technically huge positive div on indicators on s&p and dow are working for the rally. and yday as the support trendline on nifty did'nt brk, and asian and other mkts were strongly positive, this pushed the momentum of nifty and stocks further, so instead of profit booking near channel top, a big brkout occurred out of the short term trading range, nse eod data shows buying in cash(prov.) by both fii and dii and huge 10% short covering in nifty futures current series, 2868 taken out effortlessly once 2836 crossed, how much more to go next lvls are 2970/2989/3020 etc but best is to align with the uptrend and keep some suitable tsl for booking profits and a sl for existing long positions such as 2day low. discl:i traded profitably in banks stocks in cash in this upmove from 2600.

    Sunday, March 22, 2009

    22 march 2009...

    ew view: as mentioned many times, all along from 3147 nifty is exhibiting corrective 3 wave structure in each leg up and down, so currently it might well be in first of overlapping 4th(to be followed by 2 more sub-waves) wave of 5th terminal impulse, difficult to say. if this structure turns out right then the 5th will finish well above oct lows. but if its in 5-(3)-ii, then can challenge oct lows. but nifty still has'nt broken the 2500 lvl for confirmation of the 5th impulse.

    tech view: the upward momentum was building up but 2800-2830 zone acted as strong resistance and 2868 was also not reached. last couple of days, nifty went into trading within 2836-2752 range(inside days) waiting for brkout/brkdown, but the factors such as break of upward tline for the current upmove, facing resistance near upper tline and possibly weak world mkts might set it into short term profit booking mode upto lvls mentioned on the nifty chart, if the short term range is broken on lower side.

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