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past short term calls follow-up/performance***(stocks to watch)

date,stock,reco price,high,% gain at high

***all analysis are based on self chart study only, actual trading gains may vary.

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    Saturday, September 22, 2007

    its bulls eye again...

    please refer to my technical lvls given on 19th sep 2007 for nifty, what the last lvl says??? click here



    thats the high(4855.70) made on 21st sep by nifty.

    once again right on target.

    nifty current upside target...

    nifty current upside capped near 4896.

    update on my ew count...

    the wave(ii) has ended at 4482 and (iii) is in progress and is in rapid rise since it broke from top of (i), there is no change in my previous wave structure( read here and here

    Friday, September 21, 2007

    feedback on my calls

    its 1:30 pm now and mkt is still trading.

    these calls were given yday evening.

    HUGE profits for someone having bought my rpl futures call, given to buy at 140 where it stayed for long time today in morning, now it is 157, a whopping profit of rs. 56950/- on just one lot of rpl for those bought.

    even rpl 145 strike option call went up from rs.1.50 in morning to rs.14 premium now.

    tatapower fut also went upto 785.

    gail fut earlier had reached t1 at 334.35.

    two days ago i mentioned about dlf 700 strike call option which yesterday went from 20 to 75 in just one day from the time it was given on vfm forum.

    all technical content on this blog other than news and nasdaq quotes are analysed and posted by myself only.

    comments are welcome.

    Thursday, September 20, 2007

    intraday calls for today

    on my charts, the dow jones has resistance near 14000, nifty has resistance near 4800 and sensex has resistance near 16550.

    tatapower buy above cmp for t1 790 t2 799 sl 770
    rpl buy above cmp for t1 142 t2 145 sl 137.50
    gail sell below cmp for t1 334 t2 329 sl 344

    trade in direction of mkt near the previous closing price or sl.

    my simple translation(summary) of vivek patil's EW technical analysis

    vivek patil has mixed his earlier views and many alternate scenarios hence it appears jumbled up, but lets see the summary only, i have tried to simplify as much as possible and keep any mistakes in understanding to a minimum.

    so first of all let us consider the big picture of this wave analysis, this would make things a bit simpler.
    as we all know in a bull phase the upward waves are impulsive in nature consisting of 3 upward and 2 downward correctives, the pattern completes with corrective phase of 2 downward and one upward wave giving a 5+3 combination.

    so the bigger picture starts somewhere before 1984 when first super cycle wave 1 began, the third super cycle wave started in 1983 upward with a time period of 11.5 years to complete in 1994 and in 1995 the corrective wave 4th super cycle wave developed and completed in 2005. he has mentioned various fibonacci ratios on the waves magnitudes and their sub waves to support the given structure. he also says the 4th super cycle wave had a combination of flat+extracting triangle+running triangle formation inside its pattern formation.

    the 5th wave
    He says therefore we are in the 5th super cycle wave now starting from 2005 beginning from 7656. the 5th super cycle degree wave has target of 20000 and beyond and time period he now gives it as 3 to 5 years from october 2005(i.e. betwen year 2008-2010) for the completion of this 5th wave.
    as stated above regarding presence of running triangle inside the 4th super cycle degree wave, beacuse of this the 5th super cycle degree wave will get the needed thrust needed to achieve the target of 20000 and perhaps more.

    the 5th wave scenarios

    scenario 1)

    5th super cycle degree wave to end at 13300:bearish scenario.
    magnitude of the first of the 5th super cycle should be not more than 13300 or a ratio of 0.618 to that of the 3rd super cycle wave, considering the 3rd super cycle wave wave as the extended wave because the 3rd super cycle degree wave is exactly 2.681 times the first super cycle degree wave.

    scenario 2)

    5th super cycle degree wave to go beyond 13300: alternate to the above bearish scenario.

    he has mentioned an alternative bearish scenario for the 5th wave different from above in which the 5th wave assumes a diametric formation in the form of a running bow-tie diametric formation beginning 2003 having a complex structure of 7 legs from 'a' to 'g', various fibonacci ratios have proved the relationship between various legs of the diametric in terms of magnitudes and time taken for completion.

    the target for leg 'g' within the diametric is 18000 plus(when it equals 'a') and last week's sensex high of 15868 the 'g' leg has become exactly 0.618 times to the 'a' leg of the diametric on weekly chart on the log scale.
    1st of the 5th super super cycle degree wave may develop as zig zag instead of a diametric formation. he also says that this 1st within the fifth could also form as a large x .

    so far the sensex stays above 13300, the bullishness will remain.

    hence 13300 is a crucial wave-count decider between the bearish scenario and the alternate bearish scenario.


    he has termed the fall from 15868 as double combination of flat plus running triangle which should test gap of 14584-14964. The fall ended as vertical followed by sudden stop and reverse at 13779 which he terms as waterfall effect.

    He says we are into running triangle and correction may get over above 80% retracement of total fall(15485) else the correction continues. But he also says the legs of the running triangle may not end at 14485 and sensex may rally further up.

    He says we are moving into narrow channel after completion of waterfall effect, fridays high has touched upper line of this channel.

    He says a movement beyond 15069 confirms bottom of 13779 may not be tested again.

    He says the total fall ending 13779 has a corrective(3 wave) structure and not impulsive(5 wave structure).

    he says earlier 12315 is yearly sensex support.

    he says 13300 is good for maintaining long term bullish wave structure.

    he says sensex must remain above 17000 this year end so that bullish possibilities of 20000+ remain open in coming years else sideways correction.

    he says 18000 is achievable this year.


    regarding fibonacci time clusters:

    earlier regarding fibonacci time clusters he says august month period was close to some fibonacci time clusters, means a lot of fibonacci based time periods on monthly chart were forming that month and when such a phenomenon occurs it is followed by a major event, such as a long lasting correction.

    (following is the latest development i.e update)

    the jinx:

    acc to him, since last october beginning from 12316 there is an interesting pattern on sensex chart, a rise of nearly 2000 points followed by deep correction. This has already happened 4 times and the current rally from 13779 to 15824 is 2045 points which could be the 5th time occurrance. This phenomenon is what he had called as a jinx and had said maybe this time also sensex would top out around these levels.

    last week:

    weekly close was flat and sensex had tested low of 15350 during the week which now becomes crucial level for the 2000 point phenomenon to happen or not. if 15350 is broken then support are 15069 and 14570. Below this some panic will set in. when this correction gets over, another 2000 point phenomenon may be possible.
    he says last week the 30 minute sensex chart showed development of a triangle pattern and a breakout from the triangular pattern had target equal to the height of the triangle, then there was a correction which is testing the apex or corner of the triangular pattern(as friday's low point).

    Wednesday, September 19, 2007

    upside target levels for stocks

    short to medium term upside trading targets (all spot prices)

    nifty 4648/4674/4701/4746/4823/4856
    sensex 16212/16231/16278/16403/16437/16657/16908/17114/17160
    reliance 2076/85/2105/2113/2160/2267/2283
    sbin 1708/1734/1752/1763/1823/1886/1937
    l&t 2650/2663/2680/2700/2713/2719/2758/2805/2831/2870
    rel 937/972/985/1003
    relcapital 1517/1561
    rnrl 52/54/55.40/56.60/57.40
    hdfc 2250/2294/2285/2328/2347/2356
    tatasteel 725/732/738/746/752/762/766/788
    sail 175/177/179.50/181.30/186.20/187/188.50
    dlf 730/748/796/817/984
    rpl 136.50/140/143
    rcom 573/577/580/585/592/597/608/613/620/635
    rnrl 52/54/55.30/56.60/57.40
    ifci 81/85/86/88.30/90/93/94
    idbi 141/142/144.50/147.50/150.80/153.83/158.80
    idfc 138.90/141.60/143.70/145/146.40/147.40/149.60
    petronet 75/76/82/86

    stocks and their trends(31st dec. update)

    my fundamental targets for fy 2008 (last update oct 2007)

    my technical trading targets 2007

    intra/closing spot lvls for day and positional trading...

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