allright so we got the bounce and also this 100 point movement i was writing about after crossing the mentioned zone earlier and baby bulls took nifty to 4930. hope the readers might have benefitted to some extent. many times analyzing the mkt is bit easier than actually writing and explaining the views here, like this time, and i may go completely wrong in my views/opinion on mkt too, however let me try to explain.
what i feel is that some more move upto 4980 may be left. if any profit booking comes and gets limited to 4780-4830 then the move to 4980-5015-5070 may be possible in the near to short term. but again 4951 will be crucial and at higher end selling may again start.
actually the selling in early feb was far more than needed/anticipated and the lack of volumes on follow up bounce/pullback hints that more selling might be left in the short term till 4650/4450 after this pullback gets over. if such a scenario occurs and nifty then is unable to quickly pullback up over the imp 4590-4650 area, then it may actually become quite bearish and nifty may try to move to 4250 lvls in the medium term.
however this bearish view will get negated to some extent(not fully) if the nifty continues its upward journey and starts closing above the mentioned 4983-5015 lvls with an increase in the trading volumes. like e.g., yday's volumes were better with a bullish macd-signal crossover, but a short term uptrend is yet to be established above 4951.
one has to be cautious and trade carefully in coming days. mkt movement will have to be closely watched and accordingly i will try to give more updates in coming days as per my view, if at all necessary.
-abhay r somkuwar.
(discl: pls read the disclaimer above)
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Thursday, February 18, 2010
mkt ahead...18th feb 2010...
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14 comments:
Thank you Abhay..
Especially for the last para.. :)
Have a good day.
Regards
hi sujatha,
thanks again:)
hi abhay,
in the link from your blog i found charts related to investor
are they related to indian markets?
the link is
http://niftylivechart.blogspot.com/2008/08/interactive-wisdomtree-india-earnings.html
regards
rajamani
rajamaniji, surely its related to indian stock mkt and seems its an india targeted etf fund product, u may get more info here http://www.wisdomtree.com/index.asp?target=r6s5/s70q-qr6nvy5.n52?r6svq=IE
regards,
abhay r somkuwar.
Hm... 4830 achieved...and 7d EMA is 4832...If it protected here, again 4951 possible?
Will nifty resist here? or any further downside expected?
Regards
Initiated long @ 4820 level.. what's my SL now 4780??? or shall i hold the long.. it's March. Any suggestion?
Thanks in advance.
Regards
its a risky chance you've taken although i feel move to 4950 and more is possible if it holds the mentioned zone on closing basis...4780 would be a tight closing basis sl, ideally prev low 4675 closing basis as sl.
why i said 'risky chance' above bcoz the nifty has not yet established a durable/sustainable short term uptrend.
Thank you very much for your reply. Very sorry for the late reply...(power problem)
Yes, I did a mistake...(risky) in a hurry.. i thought nifty may close near last week's high or close level.. it did... but i squared off early with 10 points gain :( Narrow escape and out of position now.
Atleast i can spend the weekend without tension :)
Happy week end.
Regards
PS : 1. See Nifty again protected your 4830 level :) will go again up?? It is so obedient to you than me :P
2. Your post timing is early morning... again busy???
hi sujatha, yeah seems nifty is being very kind to me:) yes on 18th slept very late, thought it was imp to post the views before going to sleep:)
well, an overnite option hedge can help in positional, just only for protection against next day's gap-up/gap-down opening, then closing the losing position.
regards,
abhay r somkuwar.
hi abhay
view the link
http://www.market-harmonics.com/free-charts/sentiment/investors_intelligence.htm
hi rajamaniji,
from the charts link u've given...looks like the bears are gaining territory.
Abhay... joined today in twitter... so that, will u not post here??
Thanks and regards
hi sujatha, the latest tweets will be automatically updated here what's posted in twitter.
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