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    Friday, March 27, 2009

    my thoughts on nifty ew scenario...

    friends, it is now still difficult to give the exact wave counts as nifty has rapidly turned up from 2600 lvls.

    lets recall whats been said till now in summarised form,
    1. it was said that perhaps C-5 down was running on brk below one of the earlier upwardly support tlines.
    2. it was said that either 3rd pullback or an overlapping 4th within the C-5.
    3. that since jan 2009, a 3 wave corrective structure is visible in the downmoves and upmoves.

    now very imp, all along the nifty movement, the validation 2500 lvl was not broken closing basis for confirmation of this C-5 running(therefore chance of C-4th running or any other wave counts is still there), therefore all along C-5 running was maintained as a 'tentative'(subject to change) wave count.
    nifty is still moving sideways in the same range of 2500-3200, signifying the earlier structure may not have been complete, else it would have run away too far too fast away from it(from neo theory), to start a fresh move.

    iam not in favor of posting alternative counts at one time since many possibilities can be there for every move but it would land the reader in lot of confusion, we have to think and choose the most suitable one to elliott theory. again its requested not to use ew to trade derivatives on nifty or stocks, the view on internal waves can go wrong sometimes.

    as some friends on vfmdirect forum were aware of some upward tgts like 3240/3490 etc getting revised by me earlier, but i had not explained the reasons for the same tgts revision, this was made due to the internal 3 wave structure in the sideways(flat)C-4th wave that made me think on the same, so this option of nifty going above 3100 toward 3240 etc was always open as 2500 lvl was not breached, so till now its not much surprising for nifty to climb up again to the higher lvls.

    4 comments:

    nishant said...

    Dear Abhay,

    i really apriciate yr work on PE chart its really useful for long term. and it give us accurate judgment.

    do u have any tool like this for intraday or positional call

    thanks and regards,

    nsihant

    abhay r somkuwar said...

    dear nishant, pe or valuation method is suitable for stocks and mkt to find if they are cheap or overvalued, as such it is used by long term investors and funds, for trading purposes our price charts with regular indicators and tlines gives best results.

    regards,
    abhay r somkuwar.

    nishant said...

    dear abhay can u give me some indicator for daily or positional call

    abhay r somkuwar said...

    nishant for positional, the no stress indicator is one by kpl sir(u may ask someone from vfm for metastock formula for same), else follow drwaing trendlines on charts for positional. else according to mkt condition the use of macd,rsi,stochs and tline, adx helps.

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