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past short term calls follow-up/performance***(stocks to watch)

date,stock,reco price,high,% gain at high

***all analysis are based on self chart study only, actual trading gains may vary.
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    Thursday, August 27, 2009

    market medium term roadmap...

    s&p500(us) eod chart with negative divergences and support trendlines:


    dow jones eod chart with negative divergences and support trendlines:


    sensex weekly chart with negative divergence and support trendline:


    nifty weekly chart with negative divergence and support trendline:


    strong uptrend on s&p500(us) and dow jones eod charts.

    uptrend also is on nifty and sensex charts.

    but profit booking or correction is warranted in short to medium term to mentioned lvls/lines.

    but given negative divergences appearing on all the above charts, if the trendlines are broken on downside if profit booking comes in, then the lvls upto which they may come down are also marked on the charts.


    so given the above and from intraday ew counts, the medium term roadmap scenario to me looks like this. nifty may move in a fashion like correcting to 4500/4550 from 4700 odd and then moving up to around 4900 etc in the next series. similar can also be inferred from options data. 22 p/e also comes around 4900 tgt where it becomes expensive for a bear mkt rally. if nifty does a weekly brkout on upperside then tgts will be higher but i won't consider till that happens.

    lets see how it goes, but any dip to support trendline holding would be a buying opportunity.

    5 comments:

    Sujatha said...

    Thanks a ton...for your charts and commentry..

    Hm.. speculative 4700 reached today..

    Your countdown starts???

    Regards

    renu said...

    hi,

    you said that mkt would go around 4900 in next series n this could br inferred by option data, could you please tell how through option data you infer that nifty could go upto 4900.
    thanks

    abhay r somkuwar said...

    thanks for the compliments.

    sujatha

    "Hm.. speculative 4700 reached today.."

    iam a good guesser?:)

    "Your countdown starts???"

    not unless some key lvls gets broken on downside as mentioned.

    renu

    "could you please tell how through option data you infer that nifty could go upto 4900"

    currently sep 4900 and 5000 strike calls showing highest oi, nifty may face resistance at those lvls.

    regards.

    Sujatha said...

    I am good guesser :) - lolz sirji..

    SGX closed low it seems. 4900/5000calls highest OI - OK sir, nifty will resist there, but without any correction??

    No -ve divergences is working out since a week.

    Expecting an unexpected from market..

    Regards
    PS : Think u r the one person sleeping in early morning and woke up in morning too :)

    abhay r somkuwar said...

    sujatha,
    now its the opposite, iam sleeping like a log:)

    -ve div are warning signs of any profit booking in a strong uptrend and not actual/immediate shorting signals.

    regards.

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