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past short term calls follow-up/performance***(stocks to watch)

date,stock,reco price,high,% gain at high

***all analysis are based on self chart study only, actual trading gains may vary.
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    Friday, June 5, 2009

    the nifty p/e graph and price chart...

    my old nifty p/e graph reposted with some additions:


    since last time(april end) have seen some earnings upgrades of about 4.5% being happening for nifty50 stocks.

    as said earlier 22-23 times eps is a region where i expect some reaction to come, since its where bear mkt peaks(bear mkt longs exit) and bull mkts intermediate tops have occured(bull mkt profit booking).

    that lvl comes to around 4820 and 5040 on nifty, tentative tgts, as per valuations and mkt expectations till further changes happen on this front. while fibonacci 61.8%ret to p/e gives 4761 lvl.


    nifty eod price chart:


    nifty facing resis below 4600, but it is doing good by maintaining above 4509.40. as long it stays above this or 4500 on closing basis there's chance of moving to the big resis of 4650.

    medium to intermediate term supports are as shown on the chart above. near term supports are 4400-4440.

    slowly mkt is shifting into overbought though not heavily overbought region. stocks are also going into high valuations. so one must be cautious at higher lvls of the range, while uptrend is still strong and intact, so as long as the support tline is held the dips will be bought by money on the sidelines.

    3 comments:

    Anonymous said...

    dear abhay bhai!

    thanx for prompt action. the reason for my request was I was heavily stuck in MF and ULIPs last year and I HAD to reinvest in ULIP bcoz of lockin period in Feb this year. In hindsight that was a good decision and now iam in positive territory and I want to save my capital.I know I cannot time my trades to catch the top. So I intend to get out of MFs and switch to debt in ULIPS. I may miss out on a few hundred points but if there is a correction, I dont want the pain I went through last time.

    heartfelt thanx to the most 'helpful' person I know.
    vijayakrishna

    cdmoorthy said...

    Dear Abhay, Wonderful. I learned something new from you here. that is PB / div yield positions for long term investing. The thing is i never paid any interest on these two so far, but the chart and comments opens a new wider gate for me move around.

    Thanks in deed and best regards

    CDMoorthy
    Chennai

    abhay r somkuwar said...

    many thanks dear vijaybhai and cdm sir, when in doubt it does give a fundamentally clearer mkt picture, helpful in deciding on one's invstmt particularly when mkt is near bottom or peaks. one big advantage of this p/e,p/b and div yield is we know when the mkt becomes very expensive and very cheap and take appropriate steps.

    regards,
    abhay r somkuwar.

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