nifty smr chart...

my smr charts calculated and posted for mkt.

latest nifty smr chart.


nifty smr chart jan-aug 2008.


smr is smart money ratio, an indicator suggested by economictimes research. it is nothing but a contrarion indicator to price action. troughs mark the tops and peaks mark the mkt bottoms, intermediate and long term.

it is supposed to signal mkt reversals as marked by vertical blue lines in above charts.

having said that, i find it quite difficult to predict next peaks and troughs on smr values by common ta methods, will need some researching/modifications to get some clues. however, at present, a value above 100 or near 20 on smr could signal a possible potential reversal to happen.

i have scaled down smr and nifty spot values for display on same chart.

mkt outlook...

ril resis was 1250(spot) and ongc at 879(recent highs), a couple of days ago ril moved up yday on low vol and ongc went down on high vol, so was expecting they may face resis at mentioned lvls.

ril fut chart, one could have easily taken a long near/below 1150 with a sl and carried, yday was a brkout closing and macd crossover but vol remained low, chart marked with square resis zone, impact of high and low vol on stock movement in past is clearly seen.

ongc shows high vol on downside and less on green closing, macd and other indicators are also bearish, quite weak as compared to reliance.



nifty chart, day before yday price brkout took place and upmove continued yday also but unable to take out 2868 and 2900 looks like a profit booking lvl going forward.

28 jan 2009...

fibo lvls on upperside 2776/2790/2820/2850/2868(swing high).
supp 2733/2685.

short term nifty range 2680-2900.

27 jan 2009...

nifty spot : 2621/2636/2660/2700/2725/2741.

nifty futures: 2603/2614/2635/2668/2688/2700.

bias is positive, but still in intermediate downtrend.

events: rbi third quarteryly review of its monetary policy.

some chart observations...

nifty spot chart.

nifty futures chart.

nifty chart shows although price is downtrending and bearish on macd, it shows positive rsi divergence and falling on low volumes now but getting resisted by the falling trendline(a falling wedge-type pattern).

so a bounce is due and any short term upmove, if comes, may get resisted by the previous support trendline and converging moving averages which are currently near 2875. immediate downside may be limited near 2600. nifty support is 2525.

trading lvls for today...

nifty slipped in late trade yday below the very imp support lvl of 2700 giving a scare to traders but on closing basis stayed above 2700, as such also due to bullish closing of US mkt could give cheer atleast during first half trading session today.

trading lvls
nifty(spot): 2631/2654/2690/2748/2785/2807.
nifty(fut): 2622/2640/2668/2714/2744/2762.

nifty futures chart...

वही चॅनल और ट्रेंड लाइन का मज़ा !
:)

pullback continues..

from 2700 nifty is witnessing a pullback which may go upto 2872/2925/2980 if supported by global mkts. so far volumes have been lower on the downmove, the pullback is also is on low volumes/short covering.

there are indications of 5th downwave running due to brk of eod trendline earlier, but this confirms only below 2500. in such case the second sub-wave of 5th downwave should not exceed 3042 and get resisted by the previous eod support trendlines. if its just a pullback, then it would offer great shorting opportunity on positional basis.

mkt has to be observed closely in coming days, any weakness will be an invitation to sell, 2700 holds the support currently.

support tline test...

the support tline is being tested, lets see if it holds or not in coming days, if brks on closing basis then 2500 may come as next lvl on downside.

chart magic(cont'd)...

nifty bounced again yday from the support lines on the chart earlier given, how effective it proved again!!!

weak US and asian mkts can have effect on upmove but if nifty spot stays above 2822 the pullback may continue upto 2884/2910/2950.

its magic again...

as the reader might recall, months ago i had posted channels and fan on nifty chart indicating resistance and support zones which is still providing amazing results on the chart.



re-posting the same chart again here. u've gotta admit its really magical, isn't it.

mkt view...

so over the weekend mkt behaved on expected lines. crude reacted from near $50/bbl and came down and yet to become bullish, it seems to be now moving in an short term expanding triangle whose lower support line is around $30/bbl, profit booking also took place in gold which was also mentioned, and nifty also took support near the very important lvl of 2812.

US mkts fell on friday which may have impact on nifty on opening, its in short term downtrend, eod trendline should be held on closing basis for intermediate uptrend to continue. if breaks then may come down to upto 2500.

one year completed for correction...

exactly today one year ago the multi-year bull run of 5 years got halted and today the rampant bears who mercilessly hammered the indian stock market and eroded portfolios of individuals as well as large mkt participants to dirt lvls, completes its one year in office.

this period has been very much disturbing globally for businesses with scams, bankrupty, historic collapses, economies going into recession and now job losses and slow to negative growths seem to hinder a bullish scenario for a long period of time.

a 3 year bear market phase cannot be ruled out, the sharpest decline has occurred and occurring in its first year, so the remaining one or two years of this bear market could at best be sideways if not down.

just as a long term top is formed at extremely high valuations and runaway technicals, stock markets usually find their feet at historically cheapest valuations. this is around 8-9 on p/e basis on indian stock markets which comes to around 1800-2000 lvls on nifty.

first week of feb 2009 end will be 13 months, a fibonacci number from last year bull mkt high, or 55 weeks which is also a fibonacci number. so perhaps the first downleg of the bear mkt should end by then. after which it may pullback upto 50%-61.8% of the entire correction 6357-2000(assumed), that gives figure of 4179-4700, this may happen over next one year or more. it will be just the bear mkt rally after which again market may come down, how much we don't know. the bear will not loosen its grip easily. at the moment it looks impossible but lets see how it unfolds.

my view on gold, crude, nifty and us mkts.

nymex crude

on nymex crude so far my view has been very accurate. when it had crossed $100/bbl i had said we should be expecting $150/bbl and when it went around there i had said on shoutbox of vfm forum and elsewhere that it may correct to $108/bbl, when it slipped more i had posted on blog giving a channel support as $90/bbl, where it bounced off so well that went upto $130/bbl and came down to break $90/bbl next time.

earlier 2-3 months back i had asked shorting near $65/bbl to friends on vfm forum and on blog with tgts of $49/bbl and $38/bbl, recently asking to cover shorts in crude near $37/bbl proved correct again, and crude can now be seen bouncing back to $48/bbl, may get resisted near $49/bbl-$50/bbl, but if crossed closing basis above $50/bbl its likely to head toward $64/bbl with some resistance near $54/bbl. thereafter we will see if it turns bullish or not, some further upper side tgts i do have in mind if it changes its trend to bullishness.


gold

gold is very volatile and difficult to trade and my view might also be wrong on this. i feel that currently gold is in short to intermediate term uptrend from $681. trend is still up and on weekly chart also macd has made bullish crossover so shorts should be avoided, but on daily chart there are signs of some profit booking to come near $900-$950 region. it seems like a counter corrective upward rally to me in gold which in ew counts looks like b wave of larger flat corrective. so although gold is on upmove i would not suggest fresh longs now for safe players. shorters can only short if the macd turns bearish. my strategy is patiently wait for gold to come down to buy, it may take a long time to come down, some tgts earlier i had given were $540/$330 on long term in next one year or so. if it does so, then a very good opportunity might come for long term investors to buy on those dips, will have to be patient enough to wait.


nifty

as i have been regularly posting ew charts on nifty on blog, it can be seen that nifty is still in wave C-4 of second corrective of double combination ABC-X-ABC.

C-4 has been assumed developing as a flat corrective of which two waves A and B are over and third wave C is going on as an impulse with tgts 3113(done)/3257/3490.

after all the 5 subwaves of C of C-4 flat are over, then downwave C-5 will begin with earlier given tgts 2200/2000/1670 etc.

here again as pointed out earlier, the lower support trendline on eod charts is important on closing basis for continuation of intermediate uptrend.


dow jones and s&p500 (US)

both the dow jones and s&p500 are undergoing 4th wave correction and awaiting the 5th downwave. if the present upmove continues, dow jones industrials can head to 9570/10257 and s&p500 to 955/1000, earlier though those tgts were on the radar, it did'nt quite appear these indices could reach the lvls mentioned.


(disclaimer: pls read disclaimer given above)