one year completed for correction...

exactly today one year ago the multi-year bull run of 5 years got halted and today the rampant bears who mercilessly hammered the indian stock market and eroded portfolios of individuals as well as large mkt participants to dirt lvls, completes its one year in office.

this period has been very much disturbing globally for businesses with scams, bankrupty, historic collapses, economies going into recession and now job losses and slow to negative growths seem to hinder a bullish scenario for a long period of time.

a 3 year bear market phase cannot be ruled out, the sharpest decline has occurred and occurring in its first year, so the remaining one or two years of this bear market could at best be sideways if not down.

just as a long term top is formed at extremely high valuations and runaway technicals, stock markets usually find their feet at historically cheapest valuations. this is around 8-9 on p/e basis on indian stock markets which comes to around 1800-2000 lvls on nifty.

first week of feb 2009 end will be 13 months, a fibonacci number from last year bull mkt high, or 55 weeks which is also a fibonacci number. so perhaps the first downleg of the bear mkt should end by then. after which it may pullback upto 50%-61.8% of the entire correction 6357-2000(assumed), that gives figure of 4179-4700, this may happen over next one year or more. it will be just the bear mkt rally after which again market may come down, how much we don't know. the bear will not loosen its grip easily. at the moment it looks impossible but lets see how it unfolds.