after a breakout from the upward sloping channel, nifty is in fresh momentum and rising with superspeed. a new market top or an intermediate top near 10050 is about to form in days to few months as valuations are getting stretched. but money is still coming in from dii's and earnings are getting upgraded so maybe still time. so tighten your seat belts. enjoy the ride and try to book out of the markets near targets. iam upgrading my long term target on nifty from 10500 earlier to 11200 with long term support near 8400.

playing with channels

 

nifty daily chart channels trading.

nifty strategy for short term

UP assembly elections are over and exits polls are due to come today evening and results on 11th march 2017. Nifty is rangebound since last few days as such in no trade zone. As such the strategy in f&o could be taking position in the direction of breakout above 8990 or breakdown below 8860. Any such breakout/down then ensures atleast 120-140 points movement or more in that direction.

looks like a bottom is made or will be made near 7850-7900 for short term, may use any dips toward it to buy into the market, resistance exists near 8400-8450.

time to trade buy into major dips metals gold, silver, platinum with a two three month perspective.

monthwise fii and dii flows

nifty now where from here

last time I said 8300 is a strong support. that was true as long as broad expectations from local and global scenario. but we had two major unexpected and unforeseen negative scenarios developing for the market from second week of November. that is, Trump winning US Presidential elections and demonetization of Rs 500 and Rs 1000 denomination currency here in India, this singularly and together could lead to slowdown in our economy to which market reacted accordingly and broke the support level. bottoming out will take few more weeks and probably levels upto 7650-7950 can act as supports.

this is interesting, a salute to dr raghuram rajan

the rajan rally

as per previous post a downside support zone was marked in dotted rectangle and a movement upto 6350 was expected possible, after which I could not update market views.

nifty found base near 6900 and saw a major recovery to 8800.

there is bullishness on long term charts.

current view is support around 8300, max downside around 8000 i.e 6% from here.

long term upside is as given before i.e around 10500 i.e 22% from current nifty level.

therefore risk-reward ratio is still very good for long term investors buy on correction or market dips.

the possible nifty support zone

nifty can possibly take support near 6350 although testing of 5900-6000 not ruled out.

update on ew

since nifty spot has gone above 8100 and stayed, the previous ew count third wave down has been negated and 5th wave down deemed to have completed.
 but any breach below 8050 prev wave count valid with modified downside tgts.

my latest nifty ew counts 06th sep 2015

nifty futures chart

nifty futures.

eod price chart.

maybe moving in an expansion diagonal in a bull market.

current resistance zone, as marked by rectangle, and the supports and resistances offered and formed by the two trendlines as shown on the chart.

crude oil long term chart

monthly crude oil futures chart

 

 

crude oil broke below 95$/bbl and continued a sharp downmove.

 

crude oil futures may be approaching levels between 30-40$/bbl.

 

after bottoming out there a pull back expected.

 

mkt outlook 21st jan 2015

as said nifty reacted around resistance levels(refer previous posts) last time and came down and tested support levels, bounced from there and again came back to 8700-8800 levels now.

longer term support/sl for nifty 7850.

resistance around 8800.

if nifty stays above 8800-8850, expecting more upmove and the next resistance around 9250-9300 in the intermediate to long term.

short term support expected near 8600.