market ahead...10th feb 2011...

lots of damage done on the charts and they have turned very bearish perhaps a bearish phase is getting started although nifty is trading near trendchannel support 5200 now(should not consistently close below 5150 to prevent continued downmove toward 4700-4800).

any bullishness on charts presently will be above 5900 which is far away.

short to medium term investors can use any such bounce from lower lvls to trade long, if any close above 5373/5389 this friday, bias will be positive.

strategy/outlook for intermediate(6 months to 1 year) and long term(1 year or more) investors use any pullback over next 3-6 weeks to exit all delivery positions at better prices. use pullback which is possible initially to 5550 and then upto 5850 etc.  if during any such pullback over 2 months it trades above say 5900 then do not exit.
 
if any bullishness/buying opportunity comes at any time or lvls for such delivery positions/investors then it will be updated here.

***these are my views only, pls read the disclaimer above.

mkt ahead...09th feb 2011...

clearly nifty has entered bearish intermediate cycle. no good buying has taken place and selling has still not subsided. the 5350-5400 crucial support zone was broken on eod charts and nifty just managed to close above 5300 where some small supports do exist. but a lot of damage seen on charts which can possibly make the slide continue toward 5200 in current downmove.

if the reader can recall, many days ago i had observed that if nifty starts trading below the rising trendchannel and also below 5690, then it will be approaching its lower end at somewhere near 5200 from where a pullback can occur.

positive news is right now it is in oversold territory and so good chance of that bounce happening in a couple of days, which might be used by medium to long term players to further sell again or exit.

in next couple of days closing above 5390/5400 will be better for upward movement of the nifty. if the resistance of 5562(which was given as sl for positional short players) is somehow taken out, then movement till 5750-5800 can take place. if such exit at higher lvl again takes place without showing bullishness on charts, then there is a danger of testing 4700-4800 zone over the medium to intermediate term, which is a very important support zone for maintaining the long term tgts on upside.

existing positional traders who were short can think of booking/covering shorts near to 5200 if that lvl comes, and suggested to keep tsl near 5450 with sl 5562.

posting again the rising trendchannel chart of nifty for the benefit of the blog reader:

mkt ahead...nifty 03rd feb 2011...

as written in so many posts nifty finally reached almost near our much expected 5350-5400 lvl. there was no support by mutual funds or fiis near the 5700-5800 where some people might have wrongly advised others to invest thus making them further lose money in the 300-400 points downslide.

so will the 5350-5400 will be the bottom? right now on daily charts it is oversold and trading below 200dsma.  it is important to understand that at the moment it is only an crucial 'speculated support', any such bottom can be confirmed only sometimes later when some upward bias sets up for short term. it is most important also that 4750-4800 is below which the long term charts(and hence the very long term investors) turn bearish. so as long as that is held our long term tgts, though delayed, would be in place. positive news is the nifty50 share earnings have been continuously upgraded till now. and the nifty50  is mid-way near 20 times earnings.

nifty trading strategy:

intraday players can keep sl 5400 spot and trade long for 5465/5538, if 5400 breaks short for 5388/5350.

existing positional short nifty players can keep a sl of 5562 spot and ride some more downside if nifty slips below 5400, reverse position to go long above 5562 closing basis above which trend can change to short term bullish with short term tgt 5800.

as given before also 5850-5900 remains a strong resistance to the upside.

mkt ahead...28th jan 2011...

nifty spot is getting near to our downtrend sloping channel lower lvl of about 5505 which may act as temporary support, the downside as earlier mentioned is still bearish atleast till 5350-5400 since the resistance at 5900 was not crossed(refer previous posts).

follow up on intraday trading lvls...

three trades were possible last week on our accurate intraday to near term trading lvls given on 18th jan 2011 morning, as shown in the above nifty chart.

mkt ahead...18th jan 2011...

nifty spot(for traders)

short to medium term:
resistance lvls: 5880/5945/6140
support lvls   : 5350-5400/5530

near term:
resistance: 5834/5874
support: 5620/5560

for today:
resistance: 5735
support: 5620/5580

medium term view: if the nifty fails to go and sustain above 5900, then a probable movement till 5350-5400 would be there where there may be good chances of buying support by financial institutions and mutual funds.

mkt ahead...trend channels...14th jan 2011...

if nifty stops following the earlier uptrend channel, a 'possible' down trend channel i have drawn that might come into play if nifty comes down below 5690.

a bounce off it below 5600 if that comes, would confirm nifty to be following it.

supports and resistances as provided by the trend channels lines.

imp note: if the nifty closes above 5750-5760 today, then it also stays out/above of the uptrend trend channel and keeps chances of pullback continuing.

mkt ahead...11th jan 2011...

nifty is again testing upper end of our trendchannel.

mkt ahead...10th jan 2010...

a sharp profit booking in leading stocks and shorting in last few trading session saw nifty coming down below 5900.

nifty is moving toward oversold lvls on daily charts. weekly bearish engulfing candle signifies further movement in direction and nature of next couple of candle/s.

current resistance roughly 6020, short term support 5840. any durable bounce from 5800 lvls may see rangebound movement of nifty for a period of time(short term).

quarterly result season will be starting from next week in which stock specific movement can be seen.

fii dii equity figures for jan 2011...

on nse:

happy new year 2011...

wishing a happy, healthy, rocking and gainful new year 2011 to all...!!!...

follow up on trend channel chart...

see how for the second time we had a bounce from my earlier drawn nifty trendchannel supports(marked with circles), yet again a pullback of more than 300 points!!!...

merry christmas!!!...

merry christmas and a very happy & prosperous new year to all the readers,friends and followers of valuetrading.blogspot.com!!!!!

morning sayings...

mark faber to other investors,"if you cannot swallow even a 30% correction, don't even bother to get up and out of your bed in the morning"...