mkt ahead 14th aug 2009...

sometimes actual trading(intraday or eod watching chart/price) is much simpler than putting a view or analysis of the likely mkt movement and lvls of support/resis on a day-to-day basis.

it was given in view on 7th aug 2009 and 12th aug 2009 posts that medium term uptrend was still on till 4380 was not broken on closing basis and some bounce can be expected if its held.

thats exactly what happened. intraday support came near 4360(an earlier support lvl) and the imp 4380-4388 held again nicely eod basis resulting in a sharp tradeable and profitable bounce in last two days and short term trend has also turned up above 4510.

nifty has retraced more than 61.8% of fall from 4732, so the next lvl to watch is 4644(76.4% ret) and resis line near 4672-4675.

but if profit booking takes place from here then it may come down to 4516/4500. closing below 4510 makes it a bit weak in short term.


the falling dollar for the third straight day is helping equity and commodities mkt rally up.

mcx:

copper has moved up strongly and reached our tgt of 300 odd given when it traded near 267 lvl(pls refer july 24th 2009 and july 30 2009 posts).
3500 proving to be big resistance for crude and 15000 for gold, till these are not crossed, a bigger bullish move is not expected.

12th august 2009...

intraday positive divergence on nifty chart with holding the imp supports near 4400 resulted in an intraday bounce, perfectly playing in between previously given fibo lvls 4397 and 4510. nifty gets further bearish if closes below 4380-4388. so far its in a medium term uptrend above that lvl, but the short term downtrend is still on. so no case of any fresh positional longs as of now.

profit booking is also happening in dow jones and s&p 500 and many global indices/commodities.

as earlier marked on charts they had completed 38.2% ret of their big fall and profit booking was due.

although still in uptrend these US and other imp indices have to be closely watched from now on for any bearishness/signs of reversal as the dollar index seems to be headed higher.

nfty futures chart...

07th aug 2009...

posting the nifty spot support resistance chart again after 23rd and 28th july 2009. caution was advised in the 4th aug 2009 post also.

nifty rsi and price brks on short term downside after encountering supply near 4700. shorting opportunity after brk below 4660 and 4630. yday's closing is a bit weak, if continues downmove say below 4570, the next lvl where support can come is between 4380-4480. these can be seen from the chart above.

dow jones and snp500(us)...

s&p500(us) and dow jones fibonacci retracements and near term resistances weekly charts:

market ahead...

finally 4700 and more done in style with a breakout closing. so where is nifty headed to now. technically many tgts you may be reading from various people e.g., 4800/4850/4950/5100/5300/5500 and neither will they give any logical or technical explanation for the same:)

as previously put we are entering a cautious zone for investors 4650-4700 to wherever it goes. on p/e basis around 4900-4950 it becomes expensive if this is bear mkt rally, even if its a bull mkt upmove that is a good profit booking lvl.



nifty spot chart showing negative divergence. also, the breakout has been on low volumes. currently rsi facing resis on the line shown which was marked in previous posts. in my view better way to ride the upward momentum is by following a good trailing stop.

(chart courtesy: www.icharts.in)

some updates...

nifty closes above crucial 4600 and 4693 is on cards.

quick update on commodities(follow up short term view):
mcx crude: mcx crude reversed again into short term bullishness, closing above say 3350 can extend gains upto 3500. nymex crude is already looking bullish after brkout toward 73-74 lvls.
gold: gold showing some signs of recovery, but confirmation of short term uptrend closing above resis of $959/oz, if brkout happens can rub the bullishness on domestic prices.
copper: no better commodity than copper which is maintaining its strong uptrend, 265 held very well and bounced off.

nifty intraday chart...

nifty intraday, opening gaps and fibo retracements as supports.

31st july 2009...

4480(which was our positional longs sl) worked very well again, intraday bounce near to it(4474) saw nifty climbing back about 100 points. closings above 4510(76.4% ret of entire downmove) was also good. currently the brkout/resistance lvl is 4600 closing basis on daily chart above which previous high is possible as mentioned earlier. one can maintain given sl for longs.

update on equity and commodities...

as nifty is trading below the support tline(rsi and price in prev post) it gave a shorting opportunity in intraday below 4530-40. but did well by closing above 4510. for short term positional longs the sl/exit is below 4480 spot cl basis. below which if continues to trade weak, it can come down to 4397/4300 where it may reverse, as seen from the chart. close below 4380 it becomes bearish.

mcx(short term view only):
gold: short term weak, profit booking and exit lvl as mentioned earlier.
crude: moved upto 3325, exit on some pullback as closed below sl 3110 yday.
copper: currently profit booking is happening, can exit longs if continues closing below 265 lvl.

28th july 2009...

intraday lvls 4450/4484/4510/4527/4540/4596.

nifty still facing resis on rsi and price on lines mentioned earlier and as shown on the chart above.

positional longs can be carried with cl sl of 4390.

there would be a brkout/brkdown once nifty closes above(4614)/below(4540) the tlines.

new fibonacci calculator added...

newly modified fibonacci lvls calculator has been added today(right hand side bar of the blog), it replaces the old one with all the important extra retracement lvls as an enhancement feature.

short to medium term outlook on commodities and equity mkts...

on p/e basis nifty starts getting expensive on valuations 4900 onwards and caution advised for investors above 4650-4700 onwards.

4480 is imp closing lvl for nifty, if closes above it for the week then upside upto 4694 is possible in short term. positional longs sl is 4306. positive opening is expected.


mcx:

gold:
gold still in bull mkt with bullish short term but approached strong resis lvl.

for a couple of months the gold activity has been limited within 14400-15000 price band. resis 14994-15000, current support is 14870, one may book partial profits and keep a cl sl of 14750 for rest of the longs and wait for a brkout above 15000 cl basis with tgt 15600.

crude:
crude is in a short term pullback in a medium term downtrend from 3500 in an intermediate uptrend from 2880 now touching near 62.8% ret lvl 3264. tgt 3325/3353/3500, support 3130, cl sl 3110.

copper:
copper had bottomed out in dec 2008-jan 2009 and entered in bull mkt since may 2009, it is still highly bullish but approached a resistance lvl 270, as such some partial profits may be booked and rest of the longs can be carried with cl sl 257 for higher tgts of 300 odd once 270 is taken out cl basis.

disclaimer: all general discl and as stated above in the disclaimer box.

23rd july 2009...

nifty eod managed to close above 4397. at the moment it looks like yesterdays sharp selloff on the back of net cash selling by diis and fiis futures shorting a movement till 38.2% ret lvl 4313 is possible if slides below yday low. nifty may become slightly bearish if today closes below 4280(sl cl).