nifty lvls...

2485, 2454, 2375 to be watched on the downside on nifty spot if opens weak today on bearish global cues.

view on mkt...

while iam expecting some upmove toward 2900-3000 in couple of days, it should be used by traders for positional shorting with prev highs as sl, as according to the bias as posted earlier, nifty is weak and would drift further down. for investors slowly some accumulation may be done on any such big dips.

nifty chart...

at the moment nifty seems like following the downward sloping channel, but if weakness persists and the channel as well as the fibo lvl 2630 also breaks without giving a bounce, then next lvl to watch is 2546.

my projected wave 4 scenario...

internal waves within our preferred wave 4 bias discussed earlier.

as one can see, i have sub-divided wave 4 into A(3 wave zig-zag), ongoing B(3 wave flat). therefore wave 4 also becomes a flat. wave C after B can become truncated if support area(above 2631) is respected.

support and resistance areas are also marked by ellipses.

dotted arrows showing the speculated projected directions of mkt movement for monday and afterwards.

update: ongoing B above structure changed to 3 wave zig-zag from flat, others remain same as given earlier.

***only for academic purposes.

some significant lvls/tgts...

crucial lvls to be held on s&p500 us(768),dow(7200-7400),nifty(1800-2000),sensex(6100) as given in earlier posts.

above are 5 year lows for s&p 500(us), 10 year lows for dow, previous bull mkt brkout as well as very long term trendline support lvls for nifty and sensex.

below those lvls danger of s&p 500(us) and dow to slip in structural long term bear mkt(recession) whereas for nifty and sensex may best not break those lvls as growth going forward it supports view of staying in long term bull mkt.

if the next 1-2 years pan out as expected in bear mkt in stock mkts then gold it is undergoing correction 550 looks possible in a few years if not held maybe 400 max then upmove as per kondratiev bullish cycle. on nymex crude, 38 the lvl where it did a bullish brkout 5 years ago looks a possibility if 49-50 not held(all in $ prices above).

pls note these tgts/lvls are speculative in nature and are as per my analysis on ew.

channel magic!

further ew moves...

yday i said "now on nifty we should watch the fibo ret(2862/2746/2631) of this upmove from 2253-3240. if not held then previous low will be likely to be tested."

during the day nifty slid upto 2860 and bounced to 3005 then again came down below 2900.

now if 2860 is broken these downside lvls will come.


C-4, C-5 or big B, so what wave we are in right now?

C-5 will be confirmed closing below 2631, for now its both options big B and C-4 for us. if big B is correct(which is doubtful) then rally up over recent highs from any of the above given lvls, if C-4 is correct(our present bias) then nifty will get into a rangebound movement after hitting above lvls for few days before breaking down. in C-4 scenario upper limit will be probably 3100.

mkt the next move...

yday the upmove got resisted exactly on my resistance line earlier marked on sensex monthly chart previously posted here.

now on nifty we should watch the fibo ret(2862/2746/2631) of this upmove from 2253-3240. if not held then previous low will be likely to be tested.

elliott wave chart and market view.

nifty ew tentative wave counts chart.

we already discussed the previous low being significant pricewise (C=1.618xA) and timewise(time equal to A leg). so nifty may well have made the low or will make in coming days if above ew chart is correct. with other techniques like lowest p/e etc it was proved beyond doubt about the correctness of the tgt.

if last leg of C i.e C-5 is pending, that can terminate near the previous low, then every big dip from hereon gives a great buying opportunity to investors to pick their favourite stocks(like bluechips ril,sbin,lt etc) at very attractive p/e, p/b valuations in this month.

even if all the downwaves of big wave A are over by any chance and big wave B started as some friends are suggesting, even then the mkt remains buy on dips, and since bear mkts last longer than 2-3 years it makes sense to either sell the averaged holdings near completion of big upmove B in first half of next year or hold with a long term term view.

nifty view...

there is a bullish breakaway gap 2920-2964 on nifty spot that can be sl for positional longs, if trades below the lower end of gap for sometime, it may turn bearish.

update on my ew...

i have my wave counts but sometimes its best not to disclose and follow the next move of mkt to show direction, i am expecting a good downmove after nifty achieving the tgt of 2880-2921, a bigger upmove now will call for a slight change in the wave labelling, so far none of the counts have been changed.

if my wave analysis is correct by any chance, then a lot of time is still there for bottoming out. on the other hand pricewise i.e larger C tgt 2209 and minm timewise nifty has already made a significant low at 2253.

has the market bottomed out?

has the market bottomed out? what's the road ahead.

ydays pullback was encouraging which came after a long wait, expecting it to last upto 2880.

i feel the bottoming out process is now going on, there will be retesting of 1800-2000 and nifty will get rangebound in a larger range like 2000-3350 in next few days with volatility but such moves will be tradeable, i guess it will take some 10-12 sessions within which we should have a bottom for this year in place, after which it will begin its upward journey till the onset of summer next year.

happy deepavali...

wishing a very happy diwali and a prosperous new year to all!

update on my ew...

todays intraday recovery from bottom might give some possibility for intermediate bounces, wave counts not possible to give at this point.

if todays low 2253 is held then a sizeable bounce to 2640 to 2880 cannot be ruled out.

C wave tgt was 2209(almost done near today's low) i.e., 1.618 times wave A, waves do overshoot by some amount.

there are some strong supports expected near 1800-2000 region as given in nifty monthly charts.