i am guiding and discussing intraday movement on nifty spot with fellow boarders on vfmdirect forum using live yahoo and other charts/techniques.

this is how i traded and asked to keep tsl lvls for friday as given in live chart for friday. hope readers find it useful. its pity that i booked out early and missed last brkout rally above tgt2. but had asked to keep raising tsl till 4393 spot where it got triggered giving handsome 100 odd points since 4285 for anyone who followed.

no ifs no buts no flashy s/w or techniques no costly setups no confusions but simple price following with traditional techniques(see chart).

regards.
abhay r somkuwar

using yahoo finance live chart for intraday trading...

i have illustrated with comments one of my possible strategy marked on yahoo nifty spot chart of today for intraday, it is one of several possible ways one can use to analyze and possibly trade the indices/stocks. there could be sophisticated and more accurate but costly methods/techniques available for intraday trading but this is using simple cost effective and readily available source i.e yahoo finance charts. above strategy would have fetched approx. about 75 points in spot.

abhay r somkuwar.

nifty p/e chart...

nifty currently trading at a p/e of 18.25 quite close to average p/e of 17.86 and mean p/e of 19.65 and also near to support trendline, at 15/16 p/e it becomes attractively valued and anything below that will be cheaper.

nifty long term moving averages and supports to look out for...

sensex chart...

in nifty, the current bounce is expected to last atleast upto 4675-4725, closings above that it is likely to give more momentum on upsides.

lvls to look out for...

today 13th june 2008(all spot lvls):
hold nifty longs 4445 sl closing basis.
hold reliance longs 2185 sl closing basis.

sensex chart...

dow positive rsi divergence...

positive div developing on dow rsi as shown in above dow chart is a good news for pullback rally to happen.

nymex light crude oil futures chart...

most active nymex light crude oil july futures chart.

a record brkout high price near 138 on last friday led to US stock mkt crash on friday which will have a bearish sentimental impact on coming monday on asian stock mkts.

nifty technical view...

as u must be aware with my analysis on this blog, on the daily chart i was viewing correction after 6357 as zigzag(3 waves) then connecting x-wave upward(chart given earlier as roadmap for nifty, 3 waves) and then probably a flat. so any Vth monthly upmove has to correspond with daily waves upmoves. it was also said in that chart of mine that x can move max upto 5630 only, any movements above 5630 to be considered as bigger wave B(after first abc zigzag) of a larger flat wave.

on the monthly chart nifty spot slipped marginally on close last month below its long term support trendline. but scenario this month looks very bad since it is continuosly trading below both the 0-I and II-IV trendlines. the big resistance offered by II-IV trendline is around 5000 for this month, 5000 is also imp as it is 50% retracement of 3554-6357 and 38.2% retracement of 2595-6357.

long time back i had given wave counts on my monthly elliott wave chart and current correction was shown as ivth wave progressing in triangular fashion after which terminal impulse Vth monthly may begin. current downmove on nifty seems to be last wave of that triangle trendline which stands near 4500 for this month. as such any closings below 4448(jan low) is not acceptable for a probable monthly Vth upmove to begin. any closing below 4445-4448 will be very bearish and will point to 4280 and 4002.

if multi year bull run starting 920 on monthly charts is assumed to be over at 6357 then 4280(38.2% ret), 3638(50% ret) and 2995(61.8% ret) are the imp lvls on the downside. long time back i had mentioned that is is essential that 4245 should not be broken during downmove after january so that terminal impulse Vth monthly cannot be a failure, so far it was protected and had opened the opportunity for non failure of the Vth monthly.

recently nifty could not close above 5280 and on last friday saw addition of huge options call writing at strike lvl of 4700 when it traded below 4625, now what is very interesting here is both the lvls 5280 and 4625 are respectively 38.2% and 61.8% retracements of my montly V-iii. therefore closings below 4625 is also very bad.

because of the rangebound nature of the market after the big crash since jan 2008 its been a terrible time for both the investors(who may have lost a fortune) as well as traders. too much volatilty in narrow range is not good for even short term traders/investors. after bad financial news(subprime etc losses abroad) currently high inflation rate is a big drag on economies worldwide is playing on the minds of big funds as well as investors keeping mkt at lower levels on fears.

but all things are cyclical in nature as well as mkt, one day it has to end somewhere, till then it will go on its natural course.

-abhay r somkuwar.

further update on my ew...

earlier i had pointed out downmove upto 4775-4800 and a lower lvl also acceptable before fresh upmove begins. the lvl i was looking for was 4546-4551 from where this upmove might begin based on terminal wave counts magnitude limit. any fall on closing basis below this(90% ret) will call for a change in this view else its valid.

if today and tomorrow ns maintains closings at or above 4650 then one can take/carry a short term long position with appropriate sl.

ew target nears...

so as given since a long time about nifty moving up to 5100-5175 then a fall to 4800 -4900 is coming true afterall, this is yet again just one of the many success stories of my ew analysis which i have been providing for free since this blog was started.

a happy moment for me and a happy trading time to all readers and followers of this blog.

nifty view...

i always post my views with charts to let people understand what happened technically and what may happen, this is for those who don't believe TA/charts works at all in mkt.

so coming to the point, see how nifty again took support on the blue trendline today. this situation alongwith positive div intraday on indicators makes it a candidate for bounce which can last upto 5088-5114(falling dotted blue resis line) if global mkts are supportive. closing above that it will be bullish.

on the other hand if slides below todays low nifty can lose 50 points more below that.

ew update:

so as given earlier 5175 proved too much for nifty and it led to profit booking as expected(see previous posts). of course since long time all the downmove from 5298 i was viewing as a three leg correction, acc to that view of mine currently we are in third leg a tentative tgt could be about 4785-4900 if blue channel line gets broken in coming days. lets see.