stock to watch-ispat industries ltd...

update on my ew analysis...

for internal structure wise of 4th(i.e A-B-C) together the time was about 20 days, but for V-4th flat corrective the time for completion is between 16-32 days and so far it has been correcting for 19 days.

as has been written earlier about this 4th wave, both A and B have completed and C is now going on, both A and B were zigzags internally containing 3 sub-waves a,b,c each.


about the C sub-waves:

as has been written earlier, the pattern for correction of C can be downward or sideways but the structure will most probably contain 5 sub-waves in a shape of ending diagonal(triangular) or impulsive, the 3rd sub-wave of C is now going on. if the C is an ED, then each next sub-waves 3,4,5 will be smaller and smaller than its earlier sub-wave but in case of impulsive structure 3 is likely to be the largest of the subwaves and hence if the C correction turns out to be impulsive then only a big fall nearing 5030 can be expected and not the given tgts. at the moment we are watching for earlier tgts and structure. the picture will get clearer going forward.

total magnitude/tgts have already been given in earlier updates on ew, though the actuals may vary.

disclaimer: no ew softwares have ever been used for this analysis, iam doing it only by manual calculations/estimation.

stock to watch: ceat

breakout from rectangle pattern.

update on my ew analysis...

total time estimated initially for flat corrective wave V4 completion was 16 days.
B had retraced exactly 95% of wave A.
C wave probable tgt was 5321 and today it came near it correction maybe mostly complete, the correction if it is still pending, then the next probable max tgts on downside would be 5263/5147/5117.

this is according to ew theory.

latest update on my ew analysis...

earlier i had assumed wave 4 of V as a flat corrective and everything going as per my prediction so far hence haven't changed the wave counts.

currently the larger C of 4th downwave is proceeding. wave A and wave B both were zigzags and C could be an impulsive structure or an ending diagonal and as such would be diffult to trade and picture will be clearer as it progresses hence general trend is to be followed. the C could terminate closer to previous low of A.

i estimate the time for completion of this correction in coming 3-8 days.

my ew analysis chart...

none of the counts/magnitudes being changed since last time, posting just the updated chart.

sensex and nifty yearly charts...

sensex and nifty yearly(all spot prices) charts with projections of future lvls.

nifty range 5600-6000 and 5800 should be cl sl for spot nifty.

today and in coming days also it may not be possible to cross and close above 6000.

stock to watch in coming days ifci.tgt 127 cl sl 75, petronet above 117 tgt 132/147 sl 108 all cl basis.

other stocks are grasim, drreddy and lichsgfin.

update on my ew analysis...

depending on mkt behaviour, some wave counts/magnitudes may be modified going forward, when necessary.

sensex yearly chart...

sensex yearly chart, this year it should atleast close somewhere near/above 17000, next year low on the lower end of the channel on the chart is somewhere near 17000 for a tgt of more of than 28000 on upper end of the channel.

mkt saw a phenomenal run in rpl and rnrl stocks in the last few days. but what will be their blow out rally targets???

***if rpl closes consistently above 270 lvl it can go is 390.
***if rnrl closes consistently above 152 lvl it can go is 227.

***this is academic and not an invitation to buy.

latest on my ew analysis...its a bulls eye again...

previous posts

http://valuetrading.blogspot.com/2007/10/latest-update-on-my-ew-analysis.html

summary: the projected wave counts from that day onward were given as 5771-5071-6223-5044-6700

in the above post, i had given the wave iii-(iii) tgt as 5771 and actually it did go to 5736.

then it was given that wave iii-(iv) will go down 700 points i.e. 5071 and it actually went down to 5070.90!!!.

again it was given that wave iii-(v) will go up from there with a tgt of 6223 and so far it has achieved a high of 5976.

my above ew analysis has been extremely accurate till now, lets watch for further wave developments.

sensex weekly channels and running triangle. upper blue and black lines to offer resistance going forward. lower green lines to offer support in case lower support black line is breached on closing basis.

nifty and sensex major trendlines...

for sensex, the support is near 14100 for this month and 14600 for next month on the trendline(its not a channel).both the charts are on log scale.

for nifty, the support is near 4100 this month and 4200 next month on the lower trendline.

just add one more vertical line for the december month in the sensex monthly chart above and hurray the upper tgt for 2007 comes exactly as 20000!!!

hence, i have drawn the above chart and trendlines correctly.