mkt ahead...another major tgt on crude achieved...08th apr 2011...

in yesterday's trade international crude oil(wti) achieved my 2nd major(long term) target of $110-112/bbl. more later.

mkt ahead...commodities 07th apr 2011...

one of the major long term tgts of mine on gold was $1452/1462 per ounce which was successfully completed on yesterday.

would post an update on some commodities outlook in coming days.

mkt ahead...nifty 04th april 2011...

well the nifty has hit the upper end of the rising trend channel. some sort of reaction may be expected from 5900-5950 range, trade cautiously on longs with positional stoplosses.

it was a sideways 'inside day' trading on last friday. resis to brkout 5875 sl on downside 5778 in the immediate near term on cl basis.

all the sectors showing just pullbacks from their previous medium to intermediate term bearish downtrend. except the IT sector which had undergone just a profit booking and is still continuing its bullish upmove.

the nifty50 p/e graph:

by using the valuations on current earnings of nifty50 stocks,

the intermediate term supports shown by the thin blue horizontal lines comes to about 5270/5190 and then near 4850 on the nifty.

nifty presently around 22 p/e which had offered large resistance to upmoves as well as pullbacks in downtrends on many many earlier ocassions.
the intermediate term resistance zone as shown by the gray rectangle that offered resistance between year 2009-2010 comes to 6050 and above lvls.

previous nifty forecasted movement and tgt lvls till now(and afterward)...

mkt ahead...nifty 20th mar 2011...

after crossing 5500, each day the nifty is rising without any halt and buying seen in select large and mid cap stocks, and yet no all round buying in the mkt. right now it has approached very crucial lvls from where either it can turn down on profit booking or breakout on longer term charts.

pls refer to my posts 10th feb earlier and later ones. i had clearly stated that any (fresh) bullishness in nifty will come above 5900, bottom will be near 5200 and on bounce exit for investors and trading long for short to medium term positional players upto 5550 and 5800 lvls for a better price. how many of the readers believed in what i had said?

nifty has followed the same path as was forecasted and reached to 5800 today.

referring to the above chart it is seen 5800 and 5900(current week falling tline resistance near 5950 looks difficult to cross)  are strong resistances to this pullback rally and above 5900-5950 range only if it stays consistently and for a longer time period, then a change of view of sell on rally to buy on dips may take place, but as of now i still tend to stick and maintain my views on the mkt.

at any point if it looks like the longer term trend is changing to bullish or an attractive mkt to buy is emerging then i would update it here.

mkt ahead...nifty 29th mar 2011...

the given nifty spot chart is self explanatory.

i had given a hint in last post that one can go long/hold long above 5490-5500 closing for about 200+ point upmove.

but nifty was extremely bullish on last friday and opened above 5500 lvl, stayed up and nearly hit the above tgt of 5664.

large net cash buying by fiis can be seen on last friday.

earlier the nifty had already broken above the falling short term trend channel as shown which had upper tgt 5664. infact in just a couple of trading sessions atleast 3 or more important brkouts have occured. now staying above previous high of 5600 it has the potential to go toward medium term resistance of 5800.  if the bullishness remains and nifty sustains higher lvls then 8-10% move in midcaps and 5-8% in large caps cannot be ruled out.

but there are strong resistances like 200dsma at 5688 and 100dsma currently near 5750. the resistance zone is also shown on the chart. as such one should be careful here on the positional long trades and book profits/exit on any sign of weakness or reversal from this zone.

mkt ahead...nifty 25th mar 2011...

so after giving a scary downmove on unexpected and unfortunate japanese calamity, nifty showed resilience and keenness to stay afloat and maybe head a bit higher. but as pointed out many times, it is an exit on rally kind of market for intermediate and long term investors to get a better price on the rise.

i had mentioned downmove till 11th march but the quake/tsunami effect had made mkt low 2 days after that. i had also mentioned it may stay buoyant till 2nd week of april but its more like a sideways movement and needs to go over the resistance of 5562-5600 zone.

but again nifty has started rising in the last couple of sessions. but a more positive bias may develop if today the nifty can manage to close above 5490-5500, then for the next one or two weeks perspective longs may be held or initiated with 5400 as support and a deep positional stop loss of about 5340.

a 150-200 point move is possible above 5500 if the resistances are crossed.

mkt ahead...nifty view 09th mar 2011..

we are witnessing a rangebound but sharp intraday movement of nifty.

on daily charts yesterday the 5492-5525 gap was filled. i expect the eod short term sideways-down movement to continue until this friday, after which it might begin to rise.

again repeating, nifty has to close and stay above the 5562-5600 zone to move upwards.

the medium term pullback/buoyancy in nifty iam expecting to remain upto the second week of april 2011, toward the earlier mentioned tgt lvls and at the most the upper trendline channel resistance.

mkt ahead...crude oil(follow up)...

wti crude first tgt given 105 done, heading up to next given tgts 110/112 and 120(all in $/bbl).

mcx crude oil positional call/view given on twitter 2-3 days ago "mcx crudeoil current series fut closing above 4616-4620, tgt roughly 4940 and 5100, support below 4400 sl 3800 closing basis".

mkt ahead...03rd mar 2011...

i have been maintaining view that we will have pullbacks upto 5550 and 5800 and intermediate to long term investors should use this opportunity to exit their delivery holdings at a much better price at those lvls.

accordingly we had movement till 5550 and more upto 5600 in short term and need consistent closings above those so nifty can head upto that channel upper resistance near 5800 as shown in above spot nifty chart.

dii fii net cash figures:

in the futures segment looks like net short covering in nifty futures of about 2500 contracts(net buy Rs.1104 crores) and in stock futures of about 5000(net buy Rs.472 crores) contracts by the fii's in yday's trading session. put writing at 5400 and 5500 strikes and call option buying of 5700 and 5800 strikes is also seen.

so the combined cash buying by both dii's and largely by fiii's coupled with short covering saw nifty suddenly gaining about 3.5% in yesterday's trading session.

mkt ahead...crudeoil...

long time back i had maintained that the rally in international(wti, nymex etc) crude was just a pullback of previous fall from $150/bbl lvls.

http://valuetrading.blogspot.com/2011/02/mkt-aheadrevisiting-my-views-on-crude.html

but the sudden upmove of last many days on the charts on the back of global events suggests a fresh bullishness might be there in crude and might remain at elevated lvls with slight profit bookings in between, as such the tgt $105-$110(112)/bbl now being revised upward to $120/bbl (with a support near $85/bbl) in intermediate term till further update on this.

mkt ahead...25th feb 2011...

it was said nifty has entered into bearish intermediate cycle and likely to move toward 4800 in medium to intermediate term and to exit delivery positions on pullback to 5500 and 5800.

the 5550-5600 bounce is done, but a larger pullback after consolidation near 5400 was expected after budget. but yday's sudden selling broke the nifty below imp 5380 lvl again, as such it might again test the uptrend channel lower side. at this point it is not very clear at what lvl it will find strong buying support.

therefore long positions should not be initiated unless it shows a short term bullishness on eod charts.

due to volatility and sudden swings, intraday trading should best be avoided unless one is very quick and maintains strict stoplosses and carries small positions.

mkt ahead...revisiting my views on crude...

posted again on 5th dec 2010 and staying firm on my long term views on international crude price likely movement and tgts which has been always very very accurate.

here it goes for those who missed reading(http://valuetrading.blogspot.com/2010/12/follow-up-on-my-crude-long-term-tgts.html):
"follow-up on my crude long term tgts...


on stock market forums readers may be aware of the accuracy of my outlook on crude.

2.5-3 yrs ago on chats and discussion forum/s i had given major tgt 100 and after crossing that straightaway major long term tgt of 150 and no more when even most of the big international fund houses and brokerages and others were predicting 200+ dollars per bbl. accordingly we had reaction from near 148. after which my tgts on downside was 100 initially. on breaking 100 the tgt was revised to fresh one at 70 and when that was also reached i gave a final bottom for crude at 34(some people interested in crude futures and followed the technical forum had actually covered their shorts there). crude bottomed near 35 and then started its pullback.

this year too(early 2010) elsewhere on the blog my major tgts were 90 and 105-110 and 70 as a good support lvl. i had also said so far it was only a pullback of the big downmove that we had in the second half of year 2008.

we've seen somewhere just near/below crude taking support and then slowly moving up.

we now have a breakout on the upperside on crude after almost seven months. my tgt of 90 is done and near to 92 some minor profit booking might be possible. if it rallies up and crosses 110 in intermediate to long term then a relook at revising the long term tgts again will have to be done."

accordingly crude reacted from 92.5-93 and underwent minor correction (85) as given in my views.

now crude has crossed above 93 and moving up whatever maybe the news, it was projected long time back by me, chances are probably the long term tgts could be achieved if this bullishness continues in coming months.
(views based on technicals and ew theory)

mkt ahead...21st feb 2011...

nifty pulled back above 5550 and moved to 5600 but a swift slide in second half on friday brought it toward 5450 lvl.

at the moment seems like quick profit booking. if 5375 is held on closing basis then it can remain range bound for some days and then again may try to move toward 5600 odd lvls.

5800 and above it faces resistance again on its upmove in medium term.

the follow up on my earlier views on nifty is as given in chart below: