mkt ahead...

trend is sideways. weekly resistance to overcome sideways trading range is 5291 which nifty attempted yday but couln't cross above.

near term support 5160. trendline lvl support for short term 4968 and above.

mkt ahead 13th jan 2010...

it was said tuesday or wednesday one should be cautious of profit booking. exactly that's what happened.

particularly aban which reached our tgt 1530 and same day(tuesday) reacted and came under heavy profit booking which may continue till next monday or tuesday. downside lvl/support is placed at 1360/1325 if 1430 doesn't hold.

whereas nifty still remained in its near term downtrend and was not able to cross its eod resistance lvls and led to further profit booking even on good iip data and infosys results!

however support of 5160 is near and bulls may like to protect it on closing basis. downtrend in nifty may continue till friday.

major supports for medium term uptrend are just below 5000.

nifty_pe..valuation perspective...

for valuation study purpose i have divided my old and updated nifty pe chart into 4 valuation zones:

C: cheap valuations
F: fair valuations
R: rich valuations
E: expensive/euphoric valuations.

so as the reader can see we are currently in the R zone(pe 23.43).

above the grey tline upto 28.47 there will be euphoria and mkt gets too expensive.

with the current eps without any upgrades but simply on huge liquidity nifty could possibly rise to 6377(i.e) near previous lifetime high). that would be euphoric and would be prone to danger to further upmove or subject to sharp correction.

to keep it rising but still in F to R range, good results, earnings growth and earnings upgrades are necessary.

-abhay r somkuwar.

mkt ahead 11th jan 2010...

as expected nifty has broken above 5183 and reached the first tgt 5300 as given in previous posts. expected small profit booking did come in on last thursday and friday as given in my 6th jan post earlier.

nifty may well achieve the next tgt 5388/5400 in the near term. but crossing that in near term would be a bit difficult as profit booking may arise. short term support 4928, short to medium term tgt if once 5428 is crossed would be 5545/5580. over intermediate to long term 4538, if held closing basis consistently, then a much larger tgt can be possible.

since nifty may face some resistance near 5400 one should a bit cautious, some profit booking possible after tuesday or wednesday.

nifty intraday to near term trend is down. intraday resis 5250/5283, would be near term bullish above this.


aban performed very well, it has moved up 15 odd percent from its cmp of 1284 to 1517 since the bullish near term view was given last monday here, achieving all the near term targets.

revising the near to short term tgts now to 1530 and 1680, support 1320. i had given an investment buy on dips in this counter on diwali for medium to intermediate term, the tgts for that are 2250(couple of months) and 4200(upto a year) if the stock and the overall mkt trend remains strong and up. some profit booking may well come along the way.


for more short term stock related views or asking queries visit my other blog http://eyesonthecash.blogspot.com(link provided on top of the page under "positional cash fno" section).

mkt ahead 06th jan 2010...

aban very accurately reached our both near term tgts mentioned in previous post (refer day before yday high 1345 and yday's high 1375), :)

a further movement till 1395-1403 may be possible in near term.

much larger upside gets opened up if starts closing consistently above 1448, which will depend on the state of the overall mkt and stock specific profit booking etc.

nifty is reaching imp resis lvls of 5300 etc hence some caution, possibly thursday or friday, but no such bearishness is there currently.

mkt ahead 04th jan 2010...

welcome into the new year 2010!!!

welcome to the new trade timings as well starting 9.00 a.m from today.

after bouncing on last tuesday nifty continued its upward journey and achieved brkout closing above the imp 5182/5183 lvl(refer previous posts).

nifty has also moved to its intraday tgt 5220/5230, it has intraday support near 5160, there is currently no intraday bearishness but if the mkt undergoes intraday profit booking on monday and breaks below 5160 can move down upto 5130/5080.

on positional basis, staying above 5183 nifty has a chance to move initially to 5300/5388, above which in medium to intermediate term can tgt to 5545/5580. short term support 4943.

over intermediate to long term 4538, if held closing basis consistently, then a much larger tgt can be possible(lvl i won't mention right now).

aban could be headed to 1345-1375 if current short term upmove continues.

at any time if investors need to exit the mkt i would mention here or on the other blog http://eyesonthecash.blogspot.com. i have also added a delivery based stocks query box there for investors.

29th dec 2009...

back after a long weekend.

mkt doing its bit to move up towards the 5182 mark. but is that enough. its still in that range 4800-5200 and needs to break above that convincingly.

many resistances are lying up on the upperside like 5250/5300/5545 etc which it will have to overcome. couple of strong closes above 5183 will be better, there is some possibility on the short term daily charts to achieve this.

nifty spot support 4920 sl 4850.

merry christmas and happy new year greetings to all..

nifty view...market ahead...

nifty is currently in near and short term downtrend. it is still weak and personally i feel going forward it may be headed, with some bounces, to near above 4800 lvls if not supported by positive global cues, may form a short term bottom on tuesday, it would be better to play by lvls.

monday intraday resis 5020(would be near term bullish above this till 5130 etc), support 4940.

short term resis 5130, above it would be bullish till 5183.

short term supports 4935-4950. but if broken then below 4930 short term downside would get open till 4810 may get supported near 4830-4850.

mkt ahead 17th dec 2009...

nifty still bearish in near term downtrend, but in intraday nifty bounced off oversold lvls near 5000.

as such its possible to reach 5100/5120-5130 intraday if stays bullish above 5070 for sometime.

supports are 5010, sl 5000. opening may be slightly negative.

the near to short term trend may turn up if nifty spot closes today above 5080.

mkt ahead, nifty eod chart...

nifty spot eod chart with near and short term supports and resistances.

follow up:perfect play, nifty intraday lvls...

this was said yday,
"trading lvls for intraday nifty traders, if nifty crosses intraday and stays above 5118 can tgt upto 5161/5181. support 5088/5080, below which chances of weakening upto 5050/5020."

now pls refer the above charts points m,n and o. nifty couldn't sustain above 5118 and thereafter dropped till 5080 where it bounced but only to break below it and took support on 5050 where it bounced off quite well afterwards(i.e today in intraday).

perfect play!!!:)

mkt ahead 07th dec 2009...

in the last posts it was said that,

"however 4880 was held on closing basis, and in the very near term any bounce nifty may possibly get restricted to 5012/5030. so the near term range is about 4800 to 5030."

"a few closings above 5030 if supported by global mkts, the nifty would be again more bullish to reach the previous high of 5182, if any profit booking comes and gets limited to 4880/4860"

however the range 4800-5030 was broken on upperside in the early part of last week, 4860/4880 was held and hence nifty continued and achieved the tgt lvl of 5182.

its now important for nifty to cross and close above 5182 for some days atleast to achieve the short to medium term tgts of 5300/5400/5545 etc. support lvl 4880/4800. below it gets bearish upto 4700/4538.

trading lvls for intraday nifty traders, if nifty crosses intraday and stays above 5118 can tgt upto 5161/5181. support 5088/5080, below which chances of weakening upto 5050/5020.

my gold ew chart...

as per london gold prices.

gold is in correction mode.

rough tgts for the fives could be about $1300/$1540, subject to chnage as per scenario unfolding. downside lvls for internal waves as shown on the chart above.

right now one or two degree's correction may be happening, this is monthly chart the movement therefore would be clearer after sometime.

once wave five is completed, a big correction can come to below $1000 maybe in that range $700-$1000.

pls note that this is as per london gold prices which are on closing spot basis, which is different from nyse or comex gold futures prices.




gold chart all data.




on nyse gold the downside/support lvls are 1100/1070/1030/990.




mcx gold futures with trendline's supports.