posting nifty chart again

nifty took support exactly on our support trendline and closed up 5%.

mkt lvls for 04 dec 2008...

choppy trading was witnessed on wednesday but nifty did'nt drift down sub 2700 lvls.

lvls for thursday 2567/2585/2612/2680/2737.

trend:
long term and medium to long term down
medium term up
intermediate term down
short term up
short to very near term down.

mkt for 3rd dec 2008...

yday the downmove continued followed by bounce from oversold territory, this bounce can last upto 2672/2700/2725 first lvl 2672 it did reach yday itself, a reaction from any of these lvl, if occurs, will test the imp 2630 which if breaks will test zone of 2525-2570.

nifty lvls...

2630/2580/2503/2485.

nifty chart: resistances and supports zone...

supports/resistances...

nifty spot supp 2732/2716/2680, resis 2770/2790.
reliance spot below 1130 tgt 1122/1110/1087 sl 1150.

nifty near supports...

previously given lvl of 2630 acted as strong support for nifty for the last two days.

now if 2612/2570 is held, then the short term uptrend may continue going forward.

outlook on mkt...

finally the bounce that was awaited took place on last thursday and friday, and if indeed a short term bullish reversal is made near 2500 and if it is indeed a part of the wave C-4-(3), then it should form an earlier part of an uptrend from 2503 and a dip becomes a buying opportunity for a short term, to be exited at end of C-4-(3) where it is again to be shorted for C-5 to 2000 lvl.

short term tgt 2710/2750/2785/2882 sl 2630.
short to medium term tgt 3100/3250/3700 sl 2485.

nifty lvls...

2485, 2454, 2375 to be watched on the downside on nifty spot if opens weak today on bearish global cues.

view on mkt...

while iam expecting some upmove toward 2900-3000 in couple of days, it should be used by traders for positional shorting with prev highs as sl, as according to the bias as posted earlier, nifty is weak and would drift further down. for investors slowly some accumulation may be done on any such big dips.

nifty chart...

at the moment nifty seems like following the downward sloping channel, but if weakness persists and the channel as well as the fibo lvl 2630 also breaks without giving a bounce, then next lvl to watch is 2546.

my projected wave 4 scenario...

internal waves within our preferred wave 4 bias discussed earlier.

as one can see, i have sub-divided wave 4 into A(3 wave zig-zag), ongoing B(3 wave flat). therefore wave 4 also becomes a flat. wave C after B can become truncated if support area(above 2631) is respected.

support and resistance areas are also marked by ellipses.

dotted arrows showing the speculated projected directions of mkt movement for monday and afterwards.

update: ongoing B above structure changed to 3 wave zig-zag from flat, others remain same as given earlier.

***only for academic purposes.

some significant lvls/tgts...

crucial lvls to be held on s&p500 us(768),dow(7200-7400),nifty(1800-2000),sensex(6100) as given in earlier posts.

above are 5 year lows for s&p 500(us), 10 year lows for dow, previous bull mkt brkout as well as very long term trendline support lvls for nifty and sensex.

below those lvls danger of s&p 500(us) and dow to slip in structural long term bear mkt(recession) whereas for nifty and sensex may best not break those lvls as growth going forward it supports view of staying in long term bull mkt.

if the next 1-2 years pan out as expected in bear mkt in stock mkts then gold it is undergoing correction 550 looks possible in a few years if not held maybe 400 max then upmove as per kondratiev bullish cycle. on nymex crude, 38 the lvl where it did a bullish brkout 5 years ago looks a possibility if 49-50 not held(all in $ prices above).

pls note these tgts/lvls are speculative in nature and are as per my analysis on ew.

channel magic!