update on my ew...

note: in the post 'general roadmap for nifty' below i had given x wave on daily chart. it is to be noted that the connecting x wave (after the c of first zigzag abc completion after the 5th impulse) cannot go beyond 5630 and may be even less than 5630.

if this happens to cross 5630 then its not an x wave and can become a larger B of a probable larger flat/sideways pattern (whose first leg is a zig zag, after the 5th impulse) .

now nifty is above 50 dma and also above the sloping channel but it must close above two imp resistances of 4970 and 5020 for upmove upto 5140.

on monday it is likely to open gap up and there are chances of nifty closing above 5020.

general roadmap for nifty...

daily C is still running from near 5368 down, exact magnitude not known but it may be shorter than daily time frame A, after daily C ends monthly 5 up will start, if C ends higher than 4245 then monthly 5 can even exceed 6357 else it will fail, i suspect monthly 5 can take form as a terminal impulse.

latest update on my ew...

my monthly ew chart with counts, in this i have assumed correction for V-iii at 6357, V-iv to be over at 4448, tgt for V-v comes roughly at 6100, (V-v-(i) internally on daily time frame assumed to be triangle), possibly we have a terminal v impulse, might turn out to be a vth failure.

nifty fundamental valuations...

the fundamentally life time high valuations were cautioned since many months.


on 8th jan, after touching the peak p/e mkts did make a big crash.

anything above max p/e would have been a bubble i.e euphoric run. technically mkt should spend lot of time at lower side(consolidate) without breaking the low.

any possible upmove now above 6357 can be justfied in next financial year after couple of months, after factoring in next year earnings.

lets have a look at min(13 p/e) and max(28.50 p/e) valuations(historic).

fy07-08:

eps=225

nifty (min): 225*13(times)=2925.

nifty(max): 225*28.50(times)=6412.50.

fy08-09:

expected averaged earnings growth of nifty50 stocks=15%

projected eps=225*(1+15/100)=258.

nifty(min):258*13(times)=3354.

nifty(max):258*28.50(times)=7353.

these figures of nifty(min) and nifty(max) also agree strikingly with technical tgts in case of bear and bull mkts.

by abhay r somkuwar.

stocks to watch...

stocks for short to medium term buy ,

gujalkali near cmp tgt 280/307 sl 240 cl basis,
jpassociate tgt 493/553 sl cl 418 basis,
apil tgt 1170/1215 sl 980 cl basis,
rpl tgt 257/265 sl cl basis 215..

stocks to watch...

stocks to watch for short term on buy side adlabsfilm, tatamotors.

a happy new year to all...

wishing you and your family a very happy and prosperous new year, may you be blessed with good health and profitable trading/investing in the years to come .

market today and in coming days...

for monday the range i see is 6055-6115 and broader one as 5985-6205 in coming days.

any price volumes breakout closing above 6110.85 means facing resistance at previous high 6185 a possibility open for 510 points from 6110.85, but below 5945 can take it to 5780.

positional sl cl basis 5960.

positional stocks to watch abb, rel.

many leading stocks are showing interesting developments on charts, once they breakout/breakdown some of them i'll try to give here with possible targets.

latest update on my ew count...

there are indications of confirmation of alternate wave count as the right one and wave iii of V-5th is proceeding.

the probable tgt for V-5th wave is 6488/7163.

stocks to watch...

ydays stocks to watch cairn, tatapower, polaris also performed very well.

stocks to watch on buy side for intraday of 2-3 days: l&t, tatasteel, hindalco, nalco, bhel, tatamotors, suzlon, hul, bankbaroda, axisbank, rel, patni.

a merry christmas...

wishing all a merry christmas and a happy and prosperous new year 2008.

jingle bells, jingle all the way.

my updated alternate ew counts...

most ew analysts have gone wrong recently while giving ew counts.

wave counts had to be modified by me after ydays correction after giving some thought.

wave i is in the shape of rising wedge(triangle) and

most probably wave ii down is now completed,

we are now awaiting wave iii to go up, if this wave count is correct.

till then we treat it as an alternate wave count.

tgts to be given later on confirmation.

18/12/2007.

wwil-a technical analysis case study...

many friends had asked for some guidance on studying charts and ta hence posting here such a study for benefit of all.

wwil chart and accompanying commentary is self explanatory.