nifty f&o views/calls/strategies...

as mentioned earlier, i would attempt to give my nifty f&o views/calls strategy for trading intraday via tweets which would be updated above this blog post.

however it should be noted that,
1) trading in f&o is risky and only for traders who are agile and who have a trading risk appetite.
2) minimum capital required for this trading would be 80 thousand or more.
3) updates to be given any time during the day.
4) updates may not be possible in case of power/internet failure or any unavoidable circumstances.
5) trader/reader is free to follow or not follow and take his own decision and discretion while execution, responsibility for any profit or loss arising is solely his/her own.

mkt ahead...18th feb 2010...

allright so we got the bounce and also this 100 point movement i was writing about after crossing the mentioned zone earlier and baby bulls took nifty to 4930. hope the readers might have benefitted to some extent. many times analyzing the mkt is bit easier than actually writing and explaining the views here, like this time, and i may go completely wrong in my views/opinion on mkt too, however let me try to explain.

what i feel is that some more move upto 4980 may be left. if any profit booking comes and gets limited to 4780-4830 then the move to 4980-5015-5070 may be possible in the near to short term. but again 4951 will be crucial and at higher end selling may again start.

actually the selling in early feb was far more than needed/anticipated and the lack of volumes on follow up bounce/pullback hints that more selling might be left in the short term till 4650/4450 after this pullback gets over. if such a scenario occurs and nifty then is unable to quickly pullback up over the imp 4590-4650 area, then it may actually become quite bearish and nifty may try to move to 4250 lvls in the medium term.

however this bearish view will get negated to some extent(not fully) if the nifty continues its upward journey and starts closing above the mentioned 4983-5015 lvls with an increase in the trading volumes. like e.g., yday's volumes were better with a bullish macd-signal crossover, but a short term uptrend is yet to be established above 4951.

one has to be cautious and trade carefully in coming days. mkt movement will have to be closely watched and accordingly i will try to give more updates in coming days as per my view, if at all necessary.

-abhay r somkuwar.

(discl: pls read the disclaimer above)

mkt ahead...10th feb 2010...

as expected, some sort of a bounce is happening in the near term and early signs of it looks positive as it has broken out of falling tline resistance.

positive global cues along with positive divergence from oversold territory might help nifty to move up.

nifty has to stay near or above yday close or above the tline in coming days.

however for gaining some strength on the upperside(and for arresting movement toward 4600 etc) few closings above 4825-4834 will be better, which would ensure a further movement of atleast 100 odd points. however since macd and other indicators are still bearish it would take some more time to establish a sustainable uptrend. 4951 is resistance where or before some selling might again come.

above 4952 the short term trend reverses on the upside.

nifty charts...08th feb 2010...

nifty spot daily(eod) chart:

downtrend still on with further weakness as macd and ema is in bearish crossovers.

freshly bearish below the very imp 4800 lvl and downside opens upto 4500-4600, also has broken below one of the support trendlines(blue line).

only good thing is positive divergence developing on indicators in oversold region, bottom could be near that could lead to a sizeable bounce that may come later.




nifty weekly chart:

major supports(green lines) and resistances(red lines) are as shown in the chart.


(charts coustesy:www.icharts.in)


fii net cash selling is still on:

mkt follow up...(charts)...

nifty eod chart posted on 28/01/2010:


current nifty eod chart:


atleast two points to be noted from the charts and the earlier mkt views:

1)in the view it was predicted that the downtrend low/bounce may occur just before or on last friday which it did accurately again.

2)nifty spot took support exactly on the drawn trendline support, which is yet to be violated.

fii and dii figures...

equity/cash mkt data:

mkt ahead 28th jan 2010...nifty eod(chart)...

trend: short term downtrend

trade day: big down day with break below imp supports.

trading volumes: high

macd: bearish

rsi: in oversold region

trendlines: some support and resis trendlines as shown

significant support: 4800

major support/exit(must stay closing below this for few days):
4500 approx for medium to intermediate term investors
3900 for long term investors

-abhay r somkuwar.

just for fun!!!

just for fun!

being a small 3d enthusiast i have done some anaglyph conversions(not a big deal:)).

have uploaded the avatar movie trailer on the youtube.

check the video at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X5DPkRBytLQ

mkt ahead...25th jan 2010...

nifty continues in its short term downtrend.

again an initial movement toward 5000 intraday possible due to weak global mkts.

4925/4940 thereafter still has a chance and will be imp on closing basis. hence not sure of reaching 4800 immediately in a couple of days.

resistances are placed well far above(near ones being 5094/5118) so the mkt has to do a lot on upperside to turn into near to short term bullishness even if any bounce comes after this downtrend gets over(maybe near or before friday). updates later.

mkt ahead...22nd jan 2010...

nifty getting nervous near 5300 lvls which was a major tgt also and kept losing steam...so the sideways-down actually accelerated into further downtrend on facing resis 5292 on large uninterrupted fii selling.

for near term positional traders it has been a shorting opportunity since nifty was already in a sideways-downtrend. 5160-5170 the previous downside lvl was broken and bearishly moved in near term till next lvl of 5084 which would have acted as support(since 5084 was also very near to one of the key short term support tlines) for cutting shorts. but looking at further 2% losses on dow jones and other asian mkts today this lvl looks like getting broken in which case it may immediately move possibly till 5000-5030.

major lvls below that are 4925/4940(which is quite possible if the selling continues in our mkt) and 4800.

medium to intermediate strong trendline support is currently at 4968(as mentioned in last post), it could be imp from the investor's point of view. however exit point of view the investor needs to have patience as major downside lvls are still intact.

mkt ahead...

trend is sideways. weekly resistance to overcome sideways trading range is 5291 which nifty attempted yday but couln't cross above.

near term support 5160. trendline lvl support for short term 4968 and above.

mkt ahead 13th jan 2010...

it was said tuesday or wednesday one should be cautious of profit booking. exactly that's what happened.

particularly aban which reached our tgt 1530 and same day(tuesday) reacted and came under heavy profit booking which may continue till next monday or tuesday. downside lvl/support is placed at 1360/1325 if 1430 doesn't hold.

whereas nifty still remained in its near term downtrend and was not able to cross its eod resistance lvls and led to further profit booking even on good iip data and infosys results!

however support of 5160 is near and bulls may like to protect it on closing basis. downtrend in nifty may continue till friday.

major supports for medium term uptrend are just below 5000.

nifty_pe..valuation perspective...

for valuation study purpose i have divided my old and updated nifty pe chart into 4 valuation zones:

C: cheap valuations
F: fair valuations
R: rich valuations
E: expensive/euphoric valuations.

so as the reader can see we are currently in the R zone(pe 23.43).

above the grey tline upto 28.47 there will be euphoria and mkt gets too expensive.

with the current eps without any upgrades but simply on huge liquidity nifty could possibly rise to 6377(i.e) near previous lifetime high). that would be euphoric and would be prone to danger to further upmove or subject to sharp correction.

to keep it rising but still in F to R range, good results, earnings growth and earnings upgrades are necessary.

-abhay r somkuwar.

mkt ahead 11th jan 2010...

as expected nifty has broken above 5183 and reached the first tgt 5300 as given in previous posts. expected small profit booking did come in on last thursday and friday as given in my 6th jan post earlier.

nifty may well achieve the next tgt 5388/5400 in the near term. but crossing that in near term would be a bit difficult as profit booking may arise. short term support 4928, short to medium term tgt if once 5428 is crossed would be 5545/5580. over intermediate to long term 4538, if held closing basis consistently, then a much larger tgt can be possible.

since nifty may face some resistance near 5400 one should a bit cautious, some profit booking possible after tuesday or wednesday.

nifty intraday to near term trend is down. intraday resis 5250/5283, would be near term bullish above this.


aban performed very well, it has moved up 15 odd percent from its cmp of 1284 to 1517 since the bullish near term view was given last monday here, achieving all the near term targets.

revising the near to short term tgts now to 1530 and 1680, support 1320. i had given an investment buy on dips in this counter on diwali for medium to intermediate term, the tgts for that are 2250(couple of months) and 4200(upto a year) if the stock and the overall mkt trend remains strong and up. some profit booking may well come along the way.


for more short term stock related views or asking queries visit my other blog http://eyesonthecash.blogspot.com(link provided on top of the page under "positional cash fno" section).