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***all analysis are based on self chart study only, actual trading gains may vary.
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    Monday, January 11, 2010

    nifty_pe..valuation perspective...



    for valuation study purpose i have divided my old and updated nifty pe chart into 4 valuation zones:

    C: cheap valuations
    F: fair valuations
    R: rich valuations
    E: expensive/euphoric valuations.

    so as the reader can see we are currently in the R zone(pe 23.43).

    above the grey tline upto 28.47 there will be euphoria and mkt gets too expensive.

    with the current eps without any upgrades but simply on huge liquidity nifty could possibly rise to 6377(i.e) near previous lifetime high). that would be euphoric and would be prone to danger to further upmove or subject to sharp correction.

    to keep it rising but still in F to R range, good results, earnings growth and earnings upgrades are necessary.

    -abhay r somkuwar.

    7 comments:

    Sujatha said...

    Thank you very much for the charts and your explantions :)

    Regards

    abhay r somkuwar said...

    thanks sujatha:)

    regards.

    rakesh said...

    abhayji,
    tx for p/e good & useful chart.is exit portfolio or wait for euphoric value which above 25 to 28.
    i read above 21 to 25 p/e be exit time. pl advise & help about p/e zone.
    tx.

    abhay r somkuwar said...

    hello rakeshbhai,
    with forward eps expecting 10% earnings growth the p/e becomes expensive/exit at 25 odd multiple, above p/e figures are however as per current eps in which 28.47 is the peak/reaction/exit lvl. however just looking at graph above(grey tline) one may exercise caution near 24.5-25 also.

    Ram said...

    Appreciate ur study about markets,very knowledgable blog of urs.thanks a lot
    welwisher.

    abhay r somkuwar said...

    thanks a tonne genuine,
    i would dwell further into p/e study next time.

    regards,
    abhay r somkuwar.

    Sujatha said...

    Hurrey, today too 4968 gaya...just cos of "OS" levels, market is dancing..

    Expecting your week end updation eagarly :)

    Thanks and regards

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