28th july 2009...

intraday lvls 4450/4484/4510/4527/4540/4596.

nifty still facing resis on rsi and price on lines mentioned earlier and as shown on the chart above.

positional longs can be carried with cl sl of 4390.

there would be a brkout/brkdown once nifty closes above(4614)/below(4540) the tlines.

new fibonacci calculator added...

newly modified fibonacci lvls calculator has been added today(right hand side bar of the blog), it replaces the old one with all the important extra retracement lvls as an enhancement feature.

short to medium term outlook on commodities and equity mkts...

on p/e basis nifty starts getting expensive on valuations 4900 onwards and caution advised for investors above 4650-4700 onwards.

4480 is imp closing lvl for nifty, if closes above it for the week then upside upto 4694 is possible in short term. positional longs sl is 4306. positive opening is expected.


mcx:

gold:
gold still in bull mkt with bullish short term but approached strong resis lvl.

for a couple of months the gold activity has been limited within 14400-15000 price band. resis 14994-15000, current support is 14870, one may book partial profits and keep a cl sl of 14750 for rest of the longs and wait for a brkout above 15000 cl basis with tgt 15600.

crude:
crude is in a short term pullback in a medium term downtrend from 3500 in an intermediate uptrend from 2880 now touching near 62.8% ret lvl 3264. tgt 3325/3353/3500, support 3130, cl sl 3110.

copper:
copper had bottomed out in dec 2008-jan 2009 and entered in bull mkt since may 2009, it is still highly bullish but approached a resistance lvl 270, as such some partial profits may be booked and rest of the longs can be carried with cl sl 257 for higher tgts of 300 odd once 270 is taken out cl basis.

disclaimer: all general discl and as stated above in the disclaimer box.

23rd july 2009...

nifty eod managed to close above 4397. at the moment it looks like yesterdays sharp selloff on the back of net cash selling by diis and fiis futures shorting a movement till 38.2% ret lvl 4313 is possible if slides below yday low. nifty may become slightly bearish if today closes below 4280(sl cl).

nifty view 23rd july 2009...

nifty 5 min 1 day intraday chart:


nifty 5 min 5 day intraday chart:


nifty hourly chart:


nifty eod chart:

two years of blogging!!!

exactly 2 years ago on this day 22nd july i started this technical blog to express my learning and thoughts of the indian market and also to provide upcoming ipo news as well as news on the stock markets.

iam most thankful to the readers, visitors and well wishers of this blog and kpl sir of www.vfmdirect.com for their support and encouragement to continue posting my thoughts and ideas.

this blog has been kept completely free without any ads or pay service since its creation.

on this ocassion iam also adding a camrilla and pivots calculator i developed, to be helpful for day traders and the likes. my fibonacci calculator on the blog may also have been useful to the traders.

with regards,
abhay r somkuwar.

nifty p/e and 5 min intraday chart...

reactions near imp fibo retracement lvls on 5 min nifty intraday spot chart.




latest nifty50 p/e chart.

nifty chart...

resistances and supports as per fibonacci retracement on nifty spot price chart.

16th july 2009...

update: neckline of probable and doubtful heads and shoulders patterns in dow jones, s&p500(us) and nifty50 index is broken on upside thereby invalidating the pattern and the assumed tgts. dow jones and s&p500(us) charts show that there is breakout from falling channel also. only sensex chart the neckline(14400 for today still unbroken).

on all the charts(except sensex) the lower line of the falling channel is offering support for pullback.


the stated bounce in previous post from 3980(and lower lvls) has materialised in a sharp pullback in nifty going to the mentioned lvls between 4174-4254. the falling channel resis line is near 4370 for today.

an another/alternate hns pattern on nifty chart shows its neckline near 4316 for today which is not invalidated yet.

therefore 4316 to 4370 remains resis zone going forward, lets see if nifty continues moving in downward channel in coming days.

nifty chart 13th july 2009...

similar chart nifty moving in a downtrend channel after breaking the earlier support trendline.

3980 is a good lvl for a bounce since tgt of rising wedge is completed and also nifty low touched lower line of the falling trend channel. if by chance a bounce occurs will be again possibly resisted by the area shown in range 4174-4254.

it is to be noted that such falling trendchannel is already broken on the downside on the sensex eod chart but sensex just managed to close above 13479 lvl(refer earlier post on sensex hnss chart).

dow jones and s&p500(us) charts from a different angle...

dow jones and s&p500(us) charts from a different angle.

probable(slightly doubtful) heads and shoulders:




trendchannels and imp trendlines:

head n shoulders?

possible hns pattern minm tgt implication:



pls have a look at vol too as marked.

post election result breakout gap to be tested if this confirms.


sensex chart:


head to head, shoulder to shoulder, neck to neck!!!!!

amazing:)

mkt ahead...

just before the budget day nifty rising above 20 sma showing intent to move up further on positive expectations. it had already broken out upwrads from the short term term resis lines as shown in earlier posts and maintaining our tsl all along for longs. nifty is also respecting the second drawn(shifted) lower support tline. it needs to close above recent high of 4440 to move atleast upto first tgt of 4550 sl 4249.

macro charts...

(sensex eod yahoo fin data from lee)


(yahoo fin eod data)