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    Sunday, July 5, 2009

    macro charts...


    (sensex eod yahoo fin data from lee)


    (yahoo fin eod data)

    Posted by abhay r somkuwar at 11:11 AM

    4 comments:

    Wroodrah said...

    hello sir...

    wroodrah here from VFM.

    i think i saw a fractal in the sensex chart:-
    points to be compared:-

    1.)2000 top = 2008 top

    2.)2001 end-early 2003 triangle formation = 2008 end - early 2009 triangle formation.

    3.)sharp breakout upward in 2003-2004 = sharp triangle breakout since march 2009.

    ----------------------------------

    differences:-

    the triangle (2002) lasted for around 1.5 yrs, while the recent triangle (unclear in this chart) lasted for only around 6 mnths.

    the triangle breakout in the year 2003 had retraced the correction of 2000-2002 fully, corrected 50% odd, and then continued upmove since mid 2004.

    the recent triangle breakout seems to have retraced 60-70% odd (uptil now)

    ----------------------------------
    questions:-

    1.) do we retrace back to the all time highs, retrace 50% from there, and then the next bull run?
    (can this possibility arise acc. to the elliot wave theory?)

    2.) given that standards are not exactly the same in terms of the "time" taken for these fractals (the triangle 2003/2009), can we assume that the price standards too will not be the same,
    and the only thing common (useful) would be the pychological bull-bear playout?

    if yes, could furhter move be like under?:-
    retrace 50% from current levels (given the budget time),
    and then ready out for the next bull run from around 3000-3500 levels?

    would love your comments on this, and would be great if you could discuss this possibility (only if you agree with it even a bit, ie) with other seniors.

    lee sir is the betaaj badshaah of fractals anyway..

    one last request:-

    could you please send me the above sensex chart:-
    zoomed in (from) 1999 (to) 2009.

    wroodrah@yahoo.com

    thanks a lot sir,

    miss you at VFM,

    Pranams,

    wroodrah


    PS:- your blog has been a lot of use to me, off late.

    thnks.

    July 6, 2009 at 2:33 AM
    abhay r somkuwar said...

    dear wroodrah hi!
    ur a good observer, well pls allow me some time for giving my thoughts on this as i have just read ur comments, will definitely email u the chart.

    thanks.
    regards,
    abhay r somkuwar.

    July 6, 2009 at 8:18 AM
    Wroodrah said...

    thanks a zillion sir, got the chart.

    will rack my brains on it tonight, will will mail back with the markings.

    thanks, and pranams,

    wroodrah.

    July 7, 2009 at 9:14 AM
    abhay r somkuwar said...

    wroodrah,
    what we are looking from 2008 jan top till today could be just the corrective waves A down and B up and with C down to follow thereafter, yes its possible that C may be truncated and end much above low of A where the bear mkt ends(i consider this possibility bcos total time taken for bear mkt correction of 2003-2008 bull mkt will be approx 2 years or more). the retracements are as per various fibo ratios, and for approx tgts the type of corrective structure has to be studied alongwith theory of alternation and wave retracement.

    July 7, 2009 at 11:19 AM

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