mkt ahead...

just before the budget day nifty rising above 20 sma showing intent to move up further on positive expectations. it had already broken out upwrads from the short term term resis lines as shown in earlier posts and maintaining our tsl all along for longs. nifty is also respecting the second drawn(shifted) lower support tline. it needs to close above recent high of 4440 to move atleast upto first tgt of 4550 sl 4249.

macro charts...

(sensex eod yahoo fin data from lee)


(yahoo fin eod data)

nifty 03rd july 2009...

US mkts tanked on bad eco data with crude falling and fears of recession and asia is weak so opening could be in red. but nifty survives 4290(as mentioned in earlier post closing basis) for longs, resis 4407/4440 and tsl for today 4320 with 4200 being a strong support.

nifty breakout and retracements...

brkout from short term downtrend. advance decline ratio and 20 sma of trin was also favourable for some bounce. gets a bit bearish below 4290 for very recent longs. but 4200 closing basis remains a crucial and an imp support lvl as seen from the chart above.



fibo retracements for the current pullback from 4143.

nifty june 24th 2009...

still in short term downtrend.

if closing above 4310 today nifty will brkout from the falling resis tline, thereafter higher highs and higher lows pattern needed to confirm uptrend.

opening bias is positive.

stocks to watch short to medium term on long side ifci, hdfc, recltd, mindtree etc if mkt stays up or breaks out.


lets see how perfectly our supports/resistances again worked:

yahoo chart:


p/e outlook:
on 5th june update i had mentioned about 4.5% upgrade being projected on nifty50 earnings since april end, now further small upgrade takes this figure to about 6.5% over april end. therefore tgts will also get revised upwards.

tuesday 23rd june 2009...

nifty reacted and played almost exactly within our yday's given lvls 4345 and 4227. cool 100 odd points in intraday.

todays lvls 4287/4207/4150, intermediate tline gets broken below 4200(bearish).

will head for the big gap if goes below 4150.

opening bias is negative.

monday 22nd june 2009...

so, nifty opened in green on friday and bounced from the oversold condition.

it may continue to do so but remains in short to medium term downtrend till doesn't close above the falling resis line. today profit booking of yday's short covering move is possible.

the intermediate support tline is at 4182 holding this on closing basis is very imp.

weekly resistance 4518, weekly support 4182.
monday resistance 4345/4375, monday support 4227/4182.

19th june 2009...

nifty spot
accelerating in short term downtrend.

resis(chart) 4270/4335/4376/4432(short term bullish above this falling resis line) support 4155. 10 sma trin suddenly rising in oversold territory.

opening bias: mkt may open in green.

nifty and mkt thoughts 18th june 2009...

short term resistance line(as shown in above chart) should be crossed and closed above to resume short term uptrend.

short term trend is down, yday selling persisted and medium term uptrend broken, medium to int trend is sideways, intermediate trend still up.

so though we are in a bullish structure with higher bottoms and higher tops i still don't think we are yet in the beginning of a new bull mkt yet, mkt should continue its upward journey amid corrections to demonstrate on charts that its in a fresh structural bull run, at present this could be a furious bear mkt rally upto 4800(61.8% or more of fall 6357-2253) etc. whatever may be one's view good money making opportunities should not be missed. ta charts amd mkt indicators give a lot of indications on a day to day and positional basis to trade the index as well as individual stocks.

probable intraday tech lvls to watch are 4254 on downside and 4412 on upperside. yday heavy call writing seen at 4400 and 4600 strikes.

nifty gap didn't hold as ril cracked intraday.

eod chart shows supports as per short and intermediate term for today.

some interesting intraday observations(charts)...

nifty 15min intraday chart:

testing the 4561-4566 gap. fill the gap and bounce(preferred view) or fill and breakdown.

reliance 15min chart:

already tested/filled and then bounced off the gap and closed in green today unlike broader mkts. holding the support trendline too. this stock generally leads the mkt due to its weightage on nifty.

10th june 2009...

exactly what's said is happening, nifty moved up and got resisted near 4650 which it found a good technical resistance, then reacted and got supported on near term supports near 4400 to bounce back.

it was a very good tradeable opportunity for short term and intraday players, while uptrend remains intact for intermediate traders.

fiis again supporting the mkt with huge net cash buying on declines and the tgts remain the same as mentioned earlier. individual stocks and sectors are showing lot of action.

nifty will likely challenge the recent highs if today stays above 4572(falling short term tline resis) and 4587. mkt opening is expected to be positive.

the nifty p/e graph and price chart...

my old nifty p/e graph reposted with some additions:


since last time(april end) have seen some earnings upgrades of about 4.5% being happening for nifty50 stocks.

as said earlier 22-23 times eps is a region where i expect some reaction to come, since its where bear mkt peaks(bear mkt longs exit) and bull mkts intermediate tops have occured(bull mkt profit booking).

that lvl comes to around 4820 and 5040 on nifty, tentative tgts, as per valuations and mkt expectations till further changes happen on this front. while fibonacci 61.8%ret to p/e gives 4761 lvl.


nifty eod price chart:


nifty facing resis below 4600, but it is doing good by maintaining above 4509.40. as long it stays above this or 4500 on closing basis there's chance of moving to the big resis of 4650.

medium to intermediate term supports are as shown on the chart above. near term supports are 4400-4440.

slowly mkt is shifting into overbought though not heavily overbought region. stocks are also going into high valuations. so one must be cautious at higher lvls of the range, while uptrend is still strong and intact, so as long as the support tline is held the dips will be bought by money on the sidelines.

mkt ahead: 02 june 2009...

nifty closed above 4500 global mkts also doing well, support 4100/4000, resis 4650-4700. mkt ranged between these one can buy near supports and sell near range highs, 50% longs are intact since 2600 lvl. global commodities like crude and gold also doing nicely maintaining bullish upmove i guess till the dollar index continues falling and reaches oversold lvls near 75-77.