1-2-3 trend reversal...

reliance intraday chart.

for a bullish reversal:

point 1 is the end of the previous downtrend, point 2 is the pullback lvl, point 3 is re-test of earlier low without breaking it.

entry is taken on brkout above point 2, aggressive entry can be taken on trendline brkout.

1-2-3 reversal pattern is visible and can be traded on all timeframes.

the magic continues...

i could'nt stop myself from posting this lovely chart again, it worked to perfection every time for swing support and resistance.

todays technical supports(non-chartical) for nifty spot are 2740/2690.

nifty smr chart...

my smr charts calculated and posted for mkt.

latest nifty smr chart.


nifty smr chart jan-aug 2008.


smr is smart money ratio, an indicator suggested by economictimes research. it is nothing but a contrarion indicator to price action. troughs mark the tops and peaks mark the mkt bottoms, intermediate and long term.

it is supposed to signal mkt reversals as marked by vertical blue lines in above charts.

having said that, i find it quite difficult to predict next peaks and troughs on smr values by common ta methods, will need some researching/modifications to get some clues. however, at present, a value above 100 or near 20 on smr could signal a possible potential reversal to happen.

i have scaled down smr and nifty spot values for display on same chart.

mkt outlook...

ril resis was 1250(spot) and ongc at 879(recent highs), a couple of days ago ril moved up yday on low vol and ongc went down on high vol, so was expecting they may face resis at mentioned lvls.

ril fut chart, one could have easily taken a long near/below 1150 with a sl and carried, yday was a brkout closing and macd crossover but vol remained low, chart marked with square resis zone, impact of high and low vol on stock movement in past is clearly seen.

ongc shows high vol on downside and less on green closing, macd and other indicators are also bearish, quite weak as compared to reliance.



nifty chart, day before yday price brkout took place and upmove continued yday also but unable to take out 2868 and 2900 looks like a profit booking lvl going forward.

28 jan 2009...

fibo lvls on upperside 2776/2790/2820/2850/2868(swing high).
supp 2733/2685.

short term nifty range 2680-2900.

27 jan 2009...

nifty spot : 2621/2636/2660/2700/2725/2741.

nifty futures: 2603/2614/2635/2668/2688/2700.

bias is positive, but still in intermediate downtrend.

events: rbi third quarteryly review of its monetary policy.

some chart observations...

nifty spot chart.

nifty futures chart.

nifty chart shows although price is downtrending and bearish on macd, it shows positive rsi divergence and falling on low volumes now but getting resisted by the falling trendline(a falling wedge-type pattern).

so a bounce is due and any short term upmove, if comes, may get resisted by the previous support trendline and converging moving averages which are currently near 2875. immediate downside may be limited near 2600. nifty support is 2525.

trading lvls for today...

nifty slipped in late trade yday below the very imp support lvl of 2700 giving a scare to traders but on closing basis stayed above 2700, as such also due to bullish closing of US mkt could give cheer atleast during first half trading session today.

trading lvls
nifty(spot): 2631/2654/2690/2748/2785/2807.
nifty(fut): 2622/2640/2668/2714/2744/2762.

nifty futures chart...

वही चॅनल और ट्रेंड लाइन का मज़ा !
:)

pullback continues..

from 2700 nifty is witnessing a pullback which may go upto 2872/2925/2980 if supported by global mkts. so far volumes have been lower on the downmove, the pullback is also is on low volumes/short covering.

there are indications of 5th downwave running due to brk of eod trendline earlier, but this confirms only below 2500. in such case the second sub-wave of 5th downwave should not exceed 3042 and get resisted by the previous eod support trendlines. if its just a pullback, then it would offer great shorting opportunity on positional basis.

mkt has to be observed closely in coming days, any weakness will be an invitation to sell, 2700 holds the support currently.

support tline test...

the support tline is being tested, lets see if it holds or not in coming days, if brks on closing basis then 2500 may come as next lvl on downside.

chart magic(cont'd)...

nifty bounced again yday from the support lines on the chart earlier given, how effective it proved again!!!

weak US and asian mkts can have effect on upmove but if nifty spot stays above 2822 the pullback may continue upto 2884/2910/2950.

its magic again...

as the reader might recall, months ago i had posted channels and fan on nifty chart indicating resistance and support zones which is still providing amazing results on the chart.



re-posting the same chart again here. u've gotta admit its really magical, isn't it.

mkt view...

so over the weekend mkt behaved on expected lines. crude reacted from near $50/bbl and came down and yet to become bullish, it seems to be now moving in an short term expanding triangle whose lower support line is around $30/bbl, profit booking also took place in gold which was also mentioned, and nifty also took support near the very important lvl of 2812.

US mkts fell on friday which may have impact on nifty on opening, its in short term downtrend, eod trendline should be held on closing basis for intermediate uptrend to continue. if breaks then may come down to upto 2500.