nifty for 02 jan 2009...

yday nifty went upto fibo lvl 3040 where some reaction was expected after crossing gap 3017-27.

today the resistance lvl is 3072 on sloping trendline on upper side and above that the previous high of 3110 which may act as a significant resistance.

30 dec 2008...

the bounce yday came from somewhere near expected lvls near 2800, it was quite sharp and fast as well, if its only a bounce then further lvls to watch on upperside(fibo ret) are 2962/2997(3002). above that if crosses then a gap is there around 3017-3027.

update on my ew analysis...

bounce may come near 2800 or on the trendline as shown by the ellipse on the chart.

any pullback above 3110 or toward 3240 means sub wave 5 of C-4 going on and wave counting will have to be revised.

at the moment it looks like 5 subwaves of C of C-4 are over at 3110 and C-5 down has begun.

C-5 has tgts 2200/2000/1670.

C-5 confirmation will be trading below trendline and below 2502.

lvls for 26 dec 2008...

here's wishing all a merry christmas and happy new year 2009!




nifty is in an intermediate uptrend, within which its a short term downtrend on lower volumes.

support 2850/2730, resistance provided by falling trendline as shown in above chart.

nifty charts...

eod chart.



intraday chart with gaps.



first trendline is broken closing basis, so its bearish upto second trendline and gap with upper one offering resistance to upmove.

lvls on downside to watch out 2922/2900/2840.

still in uptrend...

mkt is still in uptrend, longs can hold as long as lower trendline is held closing basis. positional shorting time yet to arrive. we are still in last part of C-4 wave upside may be upto 3134 etc so a good time to start booking profits in longs, after which C-5 downwave will begin which can go upto 2000 etc.

nifty chart trendlines...

support on trendline for tomorrow 18th dec 2008 seems 2950, nifty is a shorting opportunity if closes below this lvl.

if breaks and closes below first trendline may move toward the second trendline.

bullish upmove can continue if the first trendline is held closing basis.

nifty and other trading lvls...

nifty lvls 2648/2784/2867/2958/2990/3034/3067/3105/3240.

sensex lvls 8650/9320/9458/9857/9942/9983/10102/10325.

reliance lvls 1125/1188/1209/1222/1251/1290/1322/1362/1392/1454.

all in spot prices.

update on my ew analysis(wave 4 scenario)...

in the last post on my ew analysis i had said, "on our ew counts, for the terminal impulse C of C-4, 3 waves seems completed and today and a couple of days were expected to be down days((4) of C of C-4) upto eod trendline, followed by an upmove."

And it happened exactly, nifty fell from start and bounced off at 2812 from the eod trendline as mentioned, thereby marking the completion of 3rd and 4th waves of my terminal impluse C of C-4 wave scenario.

the 5th up of C of C-4 started from 2812 with a tgt marked by ellipse possibly on the upward sloping green trendline above 2950 as shown on the chart above.

even if it exceeds 3000 by 50 odd points it will still be a great positional shorting opportunity. so bears will get a big chance to short the nifty(and many stocks like l&t and icicibank etc) positionally at those lvls in a couple of days. safe traders can wait till break on closing basis of lower green eod trendline shown above.

first tgt will be 260 points from brk of lower green tline, second tgt could be 2570-2500. further tgts like 2000-2200 etc can be worked out on the downside but not to forget that currently nifty is in uptrend, let it first show this bearishness then short, caution on longs is advised going forward next couple of sessions.

nifty intraday gaps and trendlines and eod chart with trend channel/trendlines...

nifty spot intraday gaps and trendlines based trading for finding supports and resistances, something that is very useful for trading. i had posted earlier yahoo charts here and vfm forum and had asked ppl to trade according to these.

i have marked these on the chart above.



this eod chart was also posted by me many times, see how well it has performed till now.

view on market...

nifty has been showing some negative divergence for 2-3 days on various indicators and 2950 being on upper trendline could not be crossed, if any move on upperside is pending it could be upto 2980-3020 after which a good shorting opportunity(or on break of intraday trendline which will run between 2875-2925 during intraday for tomorrow) exists upto 2690/2550. reliance also seems max upside till 1380 after which may turn downwards toward 1050 etc.

today is 30th day from the day of making low of 2253 or 61.8% timewise of downmove from 4650-2253. on our ew counts, for the terminal impulse C of C-4, 3 waves seems completed and today and a couple of days were expected to be down days((4) of C of C-4) upto eod trendline, followed by an upmove.

nifty trading lvls...

nifty spot lvls:2712/2755/2785/2800/2844/2867/2900/2951/2980/3020/3100.

nifty intraday chart.

wave 4 scenario(cont'd)...

update on my ew wave 4 scenario:

earlier i had described how i had sub-divided our preferred ongoing wave C-4 into flat wave A(zig zag three segments a , b, c), B(irregular flat 3 segments a , b , c of which c was impulsive down ended 2503), and C(which is going on as a terminal impulse five segments of which 3rd segment is on).

so by my analysis since terminal impulse(note how each of its 5 segments i have further sub-divided into three waves each) C of C-4 is going on, its the upmove from 2503 with tgt anywhere 3000 or above. hence on forums i had advised not to positionally short the mkt at this point of time(shorting to be done for intraday only).

at the end of all five waves of C of C-4 (near 3000 or above), there will be tremendous opportunity to short the mkt till 2000 lvls.

invalidation for this at any time is break on closing basis of the trendline from 2503, though such terminal impulses are non-trending in nature, its only for our reference iam mentioning the trendline since its currently offering good support on downside for this short term upmove.

trading lvls for nifty 2570/2612/2655/2674/2694/2732/2794/2820/2850/2900/3000/3100/3250.