the rising wedge...

so after the falling wedge on eod charts, today it was the turn of the sort of rising wedge on intraday charts of nifty.

congrats to anyone who traded it bcoz the perfect tgt was reached near previous nifty low near 3050.

the falling wedge and my ew chart...

here's the much discussed falling wedge now developing on nifty chart, the volumes are declining and positive divergence showing on rsi indicator. it needs a bullish breakout with volume above the wedge upper tline, the upper tgt after a break out will be upto 3600. this if happens will probably mean our C-3-(4) and C-3-(5) completed and C-4 will be on with already given tgt that matches very well.

but a close with volume below recent low of 3047 and further will negate this. and the wedge/triangle then i will perhaps mark just as C-3-(4), as it fits in time reqd for its completion, with further waves C-3-(5) etc to follow thereafter.

pls refer to my ew chart posted earlier for reference.

so it seems the movement of nifty in next couple of days will be interesting and will provide the direction to trade.

fresh nifty pe chart...

peta(pun not intended) chart analysis is something unique to my blog as described by many friends trading and analyzing mkts.

immediate support lvl by fibo seen near 12.62 p/e equivalent to 2950 on nifty. upperside if re-enters channel it will be likely to be resisted by the upper trend channel lines currently near 14 and 18 p/e respectively.

max projected downside if remains below trend channel is about 10 p/e or 2340 on nifty(its not necessary that it will get there).

the subprime mortgage crisis...

(source:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_mortgage_crisis)

and the global economic fallout arising out of the financial crisis...

so are we heading to hyperinflation, deflation, recession or stagflation?

an interesting link with some views on this.

my ew chart...

my elliott wave analysis chart.

the expected downmove did take place as shown with given tgts.

iam yet to mark C-3-(4) and C-3-(5) completion.

now it is quite possible that nifty may hold todays low i.e., 3100 and trade within 3100 and 3650 till mid of next week, which will be an indication of complex corrective C-3-(4) going on.

on the other hand break of 3198 on closing basis with further downmoves will give indication of C-3-(5).

after C-3-(5) completes, a good tradeable bounce will occur i.e., C-4 which may go upto 3500-3600 etc followed by C-5 that will test the lows formed or even go to lower lvls(tgts yet to be calculated), are pending. all this will still take number of days and weeks.

this will complete the big A structure.

nifty view...

nifty moved as per expectation on upside as well as selling pressure again came in, as given in my 11th oct's post. i hope the readers were benefitted.

now the recent low 3199 is under threat of being broken on downside today or coming days.

after this immediate downmove completion a tradeable bounce will take place and finally a test of 2997 or lower iam expectiong in coming days/weeks, this view has also been mentioned in my previous posts.

this is my roadmap which will still take some more time for the bottom for this year to be formed.

market in coming days...

i had mentioned about some intermediate bounces in this downmove currently on.

if friday's low i.e 3199 is held then nifty can bounce upto a tgt of 3570 in coming days where it might face selling pressure again.

5 year comparative returns on some global indices...

our mkt fallen so much from jan 2008 top, but still looks better after comparing with other global indices on a five year time frame.

update on ew analysis...

i admit of marking completion of C-3-(3) on 8th oct 2008 without confirming same, but from todays downmove it still seems to be going on, so will mark only when it bottoms out, any inconvenience caused due to this to the readers is unintentional and is regretted.

okay so if our wave labelling is correct, then in coming days two volatile but tradeable bounces and two declines(one small one big each respectively) are expected before wave C and bigger wave A completes.

the long term picture...

to me the decline in mkt from jan 2008 uptil now appears like wave 2 of third impulse of super cycle started from 1980. the supercycle wave one lasted for 12 years, corrective wave two of supercycle lasted for 11 years and the current supercycle wave three therefore should go on for atleast 12 years or more from 2003 onwards. the trendline support for sensex on this degree wave count on my charts is around 6100 presently and will keep shifting up.

as suggested by our friend praveen shamain, i agree that the downmove from jan 2008 would take shape as one large wave A.

these waves that i labelled as ABC-X-ABC will be reduced to W-X-Y and finally as big A which will complete in this year 2008 somewhere near yday's low or 2997, after which 50% or 61.8% retracement of this big A(might be about 5075 on nifty if current bottom is 2997) takes form of big upward wave B in the first half of next year followed by big wave C terminating closer to 2000. therefore it makes sense to average investment holdings at bottom that we get/got near 2997 now(2997 because it is fibo 61.8% of total bull run from 920 to 6357) i.e C-5 or big A and sell them near big B completion. i expect a simple big zigzag ABC corrective. time period less than 2 years is not allowable for big ABC to complete. of course all this is speculative in nature but lets see if it comes true, some magnitudes and/or structures if change will have to be taken care of as the waves proceed.

abhay r somkuwar.

happy dussehra

wishing a happy dussehra to all the friends, well-wishers, ta followers, learners and visitors of this blog.

update on my ew analysis...

so far no waves counts have been changed in my clear cut analysis.

C is running fast downward. today C-3-(3) is completed at 3331 with C-3-(3)-v being an extended wave. for today the nifty channel lvl on downside was 3307(see today's nifty and sensex channel post). it is to be noted that today's low 3331 was exact fibo lvl on my charts.

the C-3-(4) which started up from 3331 has a tgt of 3700 in coming days.

in my ew analysis nifty has to go further down, after C-3-(4) completes, C-3-(5) will open down, followed by C-4 up and C-5 down where the C wave structure will complete.

since further downwaves are still to go on, the probable tgts will be given later.

nifty and sensex channels...

watch for supports on channel lower tline.

nifty/sensex lvls for today...

trend bearish.

nifty lowerside 3720,3743, upperside 3865,3910

sensex lowerside 12078,12300, upperside 12631,12730.