happy new year 2011...

wishing a happy, healthy, rocking and gainful new year 2011 to all...!!!...

follow up on trend channel chart...

see how for the second time we had a bounce from my earlier drawn nifty trendchannel supports(marked with circles), yet again a pullback of more than 300 points!!!...

merry christmas!!!...

merry christmas and a very happy & prosperous new year to all the readers,friends and followers of valuetrading.blogspot.com!!!!!

morning sayings...

mark faber to other investors,"if you cannot swallow even a 30% correction, don't even bother to get up and out of your bed in the morning"...

mkt ahead...9thdec2010...

a lot of stocks hammering and sharp profit booking is going on in the indian stock mkt. this, while the global stock mkts have been stable or positive. will be a bit of time till stability is reached or after there is some sort of consolidation.

many days back i had given a view and tgt on nifty based upon breakout from intermediate term upward sloping trend channel.

accordingly the tgt of 6340 was completed accurately and nifty is undergoing profit booking since then.

the medium term trend is weak and in a sell mode. the channel upper trendline as expected was tested and provided support for this downmove and nifty made a pullback till upto 6070 few days ago.

currently again a fresh profit booking of the pullback is happening and it may well continue upto 5835/5780 or so. but if it continues further, then again the trendchannel upper end as well as the earlier low of 5690 become important as supports.

re-entering and staying below it for longer period in the channel again can lead to further bearishness/slide in the index and the mkt as a whole.

nifty view...mkt ahead 7th dec 2010...

medium to intermediate outlook:
still bullish with buy on dips kind

short term:
yet to be bullish buy, still in a pullback in which profit booking is happening...near term views/calls as given on twitter

mkt ahead...06th dec 2010...

on spot nifty, after crossing 5884, positive bias has developed on the charts in the near to short term.

a pullback is happening which can continue upto 6100 to 6130. some profit booking is possible there.

follow-up on my crude long term tgts...

on stock market forums readers may be aware of the accuracy of my outlook on crude.

2.5-3 yrs ago on chats and discussion forum/s i had given major tgt 100 and after crossing that straightaway major long term tgt of 150 and no more when even most of the big international fund houses and brokerages and others were predicting 200+ dollars per bbl. accordingly we had reaction from near 148. after which my tgts on downside was 100 initially. on breaking 100 the tgt was revised to fresh one at 70 and when that was also reached i gave a final bottom for crude at 34(some people interested in crude futures and followed the technical forum had actually covered their shorts there). crude bottomed near 35 and then started its pullback.

this year too elsewhere on the blog my major tgts were 90 and 105-110 and 70 as a good support lvl. i had also said so far it was only a pullback of the big downmove that we had in the second half of year 2008.

we've seen somewhere just near/below crude taking support and then slowly moving up.

we now have a breakout on the upperside on crude after almost seven months. my tgt of 90 is done and near to 92 some minor profit booking might be possible. if it rallies up and crosses 110 in intermediate to long term then a relook at revising the long term tgts again will have to be done.

mkt ahead...29th nov 2010...

nifty spot:

today's resis 5855.
near to short term resis 5884.

till then just a bounce.

follow up on view/lvls...

accurate analysis again... and lvls that work!...

mcx crudeoil near term resistance and support lvls given held perfectly for first couple of days nice 2 way trading.
once 3780 taken out, sharp upmove toward short term resistance took place.

nifty also faced resistance at 6000 and 5800 offered very good support for first four days with just a deviation of +-20 points on intraday.

there were profitable and sharp trading opportunities on both sides up and down within the given range.

short term trend is still down and the view given some posts back is now seems to be coming true i.e. lvls of 5800 and 5600. large daily mkt turnover seen in last 3-4 days.

similarly see how the  given resistance of 3825 now became the support in 26th nov 2010 trading session too.

mkt ahead...22nd nov 2010...

nifty spot

outlook: in short term downtrend and more weakish than global stock mkt indices but oversold

near to short term resistance: 6000
near term support: 5800

usd index

still bullish if near term support 77.30 holds
in the short term small reversal but yet to be bullish immediately

crudeoil

comex($/bbl): in near to short term downtrend, overall sideways, long term picture as given about more than eight months ago i.e rougly support near 70 with upper tgts 90/105-110.

on mcx near term resistance 3780 support 3670
short term resistance 3825 support 3560.

mkt ahead...nifty 15thnov 2010...

referring to mkt ahead...4thnov 2010 post,"there was also a falling wedge type pattern on nifty eod charts which was broken out from on monday. if correct then it has min lower tgt 6243 and min upper tgt of 6340, somewhere near the lifetime high. its a buy on dips for short term but the sl is quite deep from here".

both the tgts have been completed and nifty has since seen profit booking from 6340 lvl till upto 6050 on friday.

the pattern sl is about 5930, which if breaks can lead to further slide, but where some support may also exist in the near to short term.

09th nov 2010...

Happy Diwali

here's wishing a very Happy Deepavali and prosperous new year to all the friends and readers of valuetrading.

very long term chart of gold...

the projested tgts/lvls are speculative, do not take positions as they may be risky for you.

(refer ew chart and views posted on 06th dec 2009 http://valuetrading.blogspot.com/2009/12/my-gold-ew-chart.html)

these are not comex but london exch gold rates in $/oz, so some difference will be there. there is a small resistance near 1380.

from elliott wave point of view, at a glance looks like sub-wave ((v)) of (v) of iii of the 5th impulse wave from the low of year 2001 is going on. after which iv down and v up remain. iv can result in minor correction just near/below $1200/oz. v can go up to a tgt lvl 1452-62.

very long term tgts are about $1800-1850/oz after a good amount of correction below $1000/oz i.e after 5-v completes near 1450 etc.

on mcx my short to medium term tgt was about Rs 19250 and 20000/10gms, it made high about 20028and currently facing resistance on one of the trendlines from high of may 2009. if gold still rallies up and only when takes that lvl as well as the trendline out then can rally to roughly 22000. minor support currently is at 19250 and strong support for gold is at 17500.

mkt ahead...nifty 04th nov 2010

on monday, after the huge gap up opening and and maintaining the gains through the day it was suspected that perhaps nifty might again challenge the breakout level 6152, coming up after making a low of 5937 on last friday.

yday's gap up and breakout close has taken it further away from a possibility of movement to the prev expected 5800 lvl on downside. the trading volumes were not quite satisfactory. however there are imp resistances on dow near 11300 and on nifty slightly above 5200. so, if its just a bounce or fresh rally difficult to say at the moment.

there was also a falling wedge type pattern on nifty eod charts which was broken out from on monday. if correct then it has min lower tgt 6243 and min upper tgt of 6340, somewhere near the lifetime high. its a buy on dips for short term but the sl is quite deep from here.

we are still in the euphoria zone and till now no major surprises on earnings front, so only a slight increase upgrade on nifty eps can be seen, which has slightly lowered the rapidly rising valuations, but still in that overexpensive zone.

as we know that liquidity pumping in the euphoric situations can take the mkt to much higher levels than anticipated, so whenever the lifetime high of year 2008 is broken on large volumes, the long term tgts can be as high as 6700/7000 .i.e 10% higher.

mkt ahead...20th oct 2010...

much needed profit booking may have begun...more later...

evening update:

refer to the 20th sep 2010 technical outlook,"the upwardly sloping trend channel which the nifty was following for quite a while has a width of 660 points and the channel was broken on the upperside near 5600. so the tgt around 5600+660=6260."

accordingly, the nifty reached my above mentioned tgt 6260 and slightly more i.e 6284.10 and soon faced the profit booking and started its near term downtrend.


the nifty has closed below an imp 6050 lvl which was to be a tsl for short term positional long positions. therefore likelihood that in coming days there could be further fall with intermediate pullbacks/bounces.

it may also be good news that profit booking seems to be happening ahead of the big ipo's and oct being a caution month many times, which may give a good opportunity to the investors who were anxiously waiting on sidelines, if it slides further, to enter into buying stocks. seems that final intermediate to long term upward tgts may be much higher than the latest high if the result season also goes well. technically we can see some lvls but will not be appropriate to post now.

likelihood of an initial shallow correction upto 5800/5600(channel breakout lvl) cannot be ruled out. at any point the correction ends will be known and perhaps might be update here.

(read discl given above)

mkt ahead...nifty 26th sep 2010...

valuations:


nifty valuations certainly above the profit booking p/e zone of 23-24 as marked on earlier pe charts of mine, and becoming more and more expensive.

it is quite an interesting situation wherein nifty50 p/e valuations are high but when compared to year 2000 and also to period 2007-2008 on the price to book value basis, still the 4 p/b has not been crossed yet which infers the cheaper intrinsic value and fundamental strength of the stocks.

lot many stocks still underperforming. so the rally is not broad based, only the fundamentally better stocks have been rewarded with money inflows.

its certainly not a time for investors but as mentioned a good fast trading play, in which some stocks/nifty can rise abruptly and turn down at some point with the same speed.

difficult to give tgts for such upmoves but near to previous highs of 2008 one should exercise a lot of caution.

spot chart:


raise the trailing profit stop for short to medium term longs or medium term long positions now to 5880 closing basis.

mkt ahead...20thsep2010...

the upwardly sloping trend channel which the nifty was following for quite a while has a width of 660 points and the channel was broken on the upperside near 5600. so the tgt around 5600+660=6260.



hold the positional long positions with near term support 5750 closing basis.

mkt ahead...13th sep 2010...

and again 5350 held like a strong support which prevented any further fall to the 5200 lvl and nifty bounced off on short covering and overall mkt buying and we had a straight 16 day uptrend which was so good that infact the feared 5585 resistance on the previously respected uptrend channel was also convincingly taken out on the upside.

most likely the nifty may now follow the new drawn channel as shown in chart with resistance coming at 5712 plus in the short term, crossing which a near term tgt may be about 5780/5880 or so.

on the valuation front, we are already in expensive zone(5550-5730) on nifty50(refer 12th july 2010 post on this blog), anything above this is euphoric and prone to sudden large moves and may not be suitable for investors but good as a fast trading play.

the resis for the day is 5666/5676 and a rough sl for near term may be kept near 5600 on closing basis.

larger picture: nifty is still in firm uptrend so far and the intermediate to long term tgt is about 6000 to the previous high, and large profit booking in between cannot be ruled out on stretched valuations.

short to medium term investors cl sl is 5345 whereas intermediate to long term investors in stocks/nifty etf's etc dont have to worry much and can keep holding although they can also book profits partially anytime the sl for 5350 is convincingly broken consistently or whenever nifty reaches euphoria or touches the upper end of expensive valuation zones.

mkt ahead...19th aug 2010...

so the medium term trend remained strongly up holding 5350 tsl solid as a rock, as i had mentioned earlier these nifty positional longs were initiated in the zone 4900-4950. no change is tsl required as of now.

the tgt is raised from 5530 to 5578 which is a resistance on previously drawn channel and nearly achieved.

as the quarterly results have been mixed so far, no upgrades have happened on the nifty50 stocks index. therefore there is no change in our 5550-5730 expensive zone on p/e basis.

perhaps we are entering a risky zone above 5500 now the with first resistance coming at 5545.

with all these factors one can consider booking partial profits in the medium term positional longs when the nifty reaches the upper end of the channel. the profit booking if comes can easily take the nifty to 5350 and then to 5200 which can be maintained as sl on closing basis.

mkt ahead...23rd july 2010...

so as per view, the medium term uptrend continues after taking support near our tsl of 5200!

there was a -ve div on the eod charts indicating some sort of potential near to short term warning to the upward rally. but with yesterday's movement, it has come down a bit.

nifty has also done the much needed breakout above our 5400 lvl and taken out its two year high. it can therefore proceed to 5550(near to short term tgt) kind of lvls once the small resistance near 5467 is taken out.

by p/e analysis i had already mentioned that anything above 5500, nifty enters an expensive valuation zone of 5550-5730. and above 5750 etc it enters the euphoria zone.

but that itself is not a reason for a big sell-off in the mkt, but it would be a time for taking some profits off the table.



as shown on weekly chart, the nifty is moving in a rising trend channel with upper and lower limits currently placed at or above 5530(resistance) and 4872 or above(support) respectively.

the tsl (or more appropriately tpbl, let me coin the term here, tpbl!, the trailing/partial profit booking lvl) for the short to medium term positional traders can now be raised to 5350 from previously 5200 lvl and sl to 5200 from the previously about 5100 lvl. all as per eod closing basis.

i do hope the tgts, sl, tsl and overall mkt view for positional traders/investors is clear to the blog reader from the above paragraphs.

mkt ahead...12th july 2010...

nifty positional buy on dips advice was given in initial stages of the current upmove from 4800.

in the last post the tsl of 5200 given was also held perfectly for the positional short to medium term long positions! thereafter we have seen a further rally 5350 and more.

how much more?

once the april 2010 high of 5400 is taken out it can continue upto resistance from 5530 onwards as shown in chart above.

valuations can start getting expensive in the region i mentioned earlier on my nifty p/e charts .i.e., band between 23-24. on the current upgraded eps that comes to a range 5500-5730.

the caveat is valuations is not by itself a reason to completely sell/exit from positions and miss a leftover rally, say in any euphoric situations, which is not seen yet happening now.

US stock market valuations...

updt 05th july 2010:

an improved earnings estimate for next year can make the p/e valuations a bit attractive for next year.

one can also see the inverse relation between div yield and p/e ratio in above table.

technically the dow and nasdaq have broken down below their respective significant supports(9888/1040) of recent times. as such the outlook becomes bearish for medium term and it seems has potential to go down as much as 900-950 if 1000 lvl is also convincingly broken down in s&p500(us).

while a short to medium term bounce or pullback can occur anytime due to oversold lvls, but any such reversals from very recent lows is yet to appear on the charts. when such a pullback/relief rally does come, may be quite a significant one on the upside and might get sold into if 1145 is not decisively crossed and closed above.

pls go through my accurate analysis/view on dow jones and s&p500(us) in following links 16th march 2010 03rd may 2010 11th may 2010

mkt ahead...23rd june 2010...

there's no bearishness, however profit booking may continue for sometime.



as seen from spot nifty chart above, today's support is near 5300.

for positional short to medium term longs, the support(tsl) can be kept below 5200 and tentative sl can be about 5100.

because of the sharp run up in recent times, these lvls are a bit deep. but remember the advise on cutting shorts and going positional longs was given in comments section at 4950 after which time our downward tgt of 4800 etc was also achieved.

mkt ahead...16thjune2010...

5200 tgt for short to medium term traders done in style holding the recent lows!

nifty is moving nearly as per the tentative channel lines i had drawn in previous eod nifty spot chart, right now its touching the upper tline:


right now the near term upside is seen anywhere between 5250-5340 as seen from chart above where some resistances are placed. but with dow and the us mkts also moving up, there should not be much difficulty and dips toward the 4950 looks like a buy on dips kind of mkt for short to medium term. the 5300 plus lvls may not happen immediately.

there is another bullish brkout yday and its probable that perhaps the correction starting from 5400 might be over. some large profit booking can always come but if gets retricted to 4950-4980 region will be fine(and not more than 4700 in medium term).

mkt ahead...08th june 2010...

nifty trading lvls for today(chart):


quite large volatile opening moves we are getting mainly due to the US mkts irrational overnight moves.

but the near to short term trend is still up.

hopefully we might be able to hold on to the recent lows with 4780 as sl for the completion of tgt 5200 and more if nifty remains stable in next few sessions.

mkt ahead...31st may 2010...

what a splendid bounce we had from 4700-4800 lvls in last 2-3 sessions. it was anticipated that we get a support there. we did see some amount of buying and short covering there. there was a net cash buying by both fii's(410 cr) and dii's(342 cr) on friday.

scenario fits perfectly in my ew case I given much earlier. can't confirm at this stage if all the corrective/down waves are complete. looks like perhaps a process of short to medium term bottom formation is taking place.

monday or tuesday nifty may undergo slight amount of profit booking upto 4930-4950. near to short term traders may utilize this dip(if it occurs) to buy positions with a tgt of 5200/5220 with cl sl of 4780 or so.

if any large selling comes say after nifty reaches 5200 etc towards 4700 with a large cash buying support from large fii investors, it would be one of the clues to be utilized for buying for medium term investors later, or whenever such an uptrend gets established.

till then its an intraday to near term trader's mkt.

mkt ahead...20th may 2010...

the global mkts continue to be in turmoil.

10800 was a crucial breakdown lvl on the dow jones. current dow jones movement is only a continuation of the pullback from its deep lows of 9800 lvls.

it is restricted within two down candles. broadly it is sandwiched between its 50 and 200 sdma's breaking out neither on the up or down side.

the bearishness after its earlier huge fall makes it remain in sideways with a weakish bias. therefore basically it has become a trader's mkt with no clear direction.

the weakness in US mkts has had a significant impact on global stock mkts particularly emerging mkts and crude which is just trying to hold $70/barrel lvl.


in just 11 trading days the nifty has twice bounced from its 200 sdma, but it was finally broken closing basis yday and downside lvls like 4800/4850 now can be possible.



(tables above are indicative of the almost continuous and relentless profit booking/selling largely by the fii's in the cash mkt)

it is to be noted that downtrend on nifty remains intact and every pullback is getting sold into.

it is important that it recovers quickly above the 200 dma and sets up some sort of a short to medium term uptrend, when downmove gets over, to keep hopes from the investors point of view. some good buying support may possibly come near the 4700 and 4800 region, if not, then 4675 can be an exit point for investors and would be a cause for worry going ahead. lets see if we get buying support there for the mkt to recover thereafter.

also one can refer to my ew analysis Case I on nifty spot eod given earlier.

-abhay r somkuwar.

mkt ahead...11th may 2010...

it was an unbelievable bounce in the nifty yday(although nothing in comparison to the european stock mkts) on the back of huge european union bail out package.

even dow has risen and nearly wiped out its huge fall it made a couple of days ago. everything looks so good? the question being asked is, is it time to buy and whether the bearishness of the fall has ended. but the damage on daily charts is already done.

i say its still a pullback for traders and not exactly buying opportunity for short to medium term investors. but the medium term support on dow(i.e 9800) is very well held, investors with given time frame can buy on declines only if that lvl is held on sustainable basis after some time when process of bottom formation or any indication of established uptrend is seen.

one thing to note, why i said its just a bounce/pullback rally. the bar made on 6th of may is from high of 10926 to low of 9780, so the last two days movement is still confined within this bar, and no breakout has occurred in any direction.

secondly the daily macd is bearish, so some large players might use the rally to exit, till or unless any crossover takes place.

on nifty also the picture is that of a pullback rally from the recent lows.

the first of the falling trendlines on daily charts is also now encountered so it may see resistance in this 5200-5230 kind of lvls going forward. even if it takes these resistances out there is less than 100 points upside potential.

hence one can use the current lvls for booking profits in longs in stocks/nifty. the daily charts medium term trend is down with a bearish macd. till the trend turns positive, one can stay out from short to medium term buying.

nifty movement as per ew analysis'...

some possible wave counts for the ongoing nifty correction from the peak of 5399.65.

Case I:



though getting into an oversold territory, the nifty may immediatly have a downside till about 4950, which coincides with the 200 dsma of nifty.

then a small bounce/pullback may occur in the near term upto 5123 or so, which coincides with 100 dsma.

thereafter, it will have to be seen whether this would be sustainable or not. if not, and c of C breaks on downside, then the downside can continue upto wave C-e which can take it to about 4800 or slightly below that lvl.

Case II:



after C-c a small pullback just above/near 5100 and then short term bottom formation near 4950.


when Case I or Case II is complete(i.e C complete), then a recovery in mkt for short(to medium) term may happen, which can be bought into for short to medium term.

right now the medium or medium to intermediate term picture is still okay on nifty and the us mkts.

-abhay r somkuwar.

mkt ahead...

there was some hope of a small pullback today but, due to the disastrous dow reaction yday and getting volatile due to reliance supreme court verdict today, which ruled in favour of ril.

the mkt has become more bearish and volatile. thankfully the cut is not as deep as the US mkt.

right now 5000 is being held in intraday.


current near term support seen around 4950 closing basis. its to be seen if it holds in coming days.

mkt ahead...

i had not only given 5400 as short to medium term tgt but also given in what fashion nifty will move and come back down to 5100 etc. not only that i had cautioned on 12th and 13th april 2010 regarding tsl for profit booking for these positions and given 5230 cl sl for those who did not book their positions. after which i had said a bounce will occur and 5187 will hold for near term, and nifty did exactly that and went upto 5350 giving a very good exit to those people who did not book their stocks/nifty short to medium term positions earlier(20th april 2010).

it was said mkt had entered in a bearish zone for short to medium term but deep cut may be utilised for buying by medium to long term investment perspective.

yday nifty came down to below 5150. right now even 5100 looks like not holding and nifty may slide to deeper lvls on account of deep cut in dow and global mkts. when the right time to cover shorts or take cash buying will come we will know, for which we have to closely monitor the mkt in coming days.

here onwards, i am thinking of closing blog or restrict the entry due to weak and disapponting response from readers despite giving very useful views on indian stock market, global stock markets and commodities like copper, gold and crude oil as well as currency oulook, and other info at no cost and even keeping the blog ad free all these years.

mkt ahead...03rd may 2010...

refer to 20th april post. mkt has performed exactly as per view.

there is no change in the outlook, nifty may slide to 5100 area in coming days where short term support and pullback in mkt may be found. reliance had also been weak and has some further downside left, comparatively rnrl and relinfra may perform better. lot of sectors showing exhaustion.

view on dow and s&p500(us) has also been very accurate. now some upside still possibly left in the dow, but if dow continues to correct below 10940 then can even come down about 7-8%. good short term support for bounce is near 10800.

therefore one can use any upsides from now for booking profits/exiting from stocks in short to medium term positions. medium to long term picture on dow and nifty is still bullish and any large dips in mkt can be used for accumulation purposes.

gold is bullish now, long term view on gold already given in ew analysis before(http://valuetrading.blogspot.com/2009/12/my-gold-ew-chart.html).

on nymex crude my view is, its still in bear mkt rally but that does'nt mean it can't go toward the $100-110/barrel mark.

mkt ahead...26th apr 2010...

on account of slight diappointment on lower grm's, sales/profit estimates mkt may give a knee jerk reaction to reliance stock which may result in profit booking in the mkt initially to 5280/5250.

broad mkt views are as given in earlier post and replies to reader comments.

the indian paisa leak(ipl)...

"pls, take a 'pow'!!"...:)

mkt ahead...20th apr 2010...

profit booking is happening in our mkts lots of factors technical(reaching 5400 etc) and fundamental(inflation,credit policy, quarterly results,greece,us unemployment rate/jobless claims etc etc).

the weak dow closing on friday showed its impact on monday on indian stock mkt and nifty plunged to low of 5161.

it has also now closed below sl for short to medium term traders. therefore outlook becomes bearish for short term.

but since intraday to near term charts are in oversold territory one can expect a bounce/pullback to 5300 lvls on a green dow closing monday and perhaps tuesday. after which there may be more downside left in nifty probably towards 5100 area. 5187 can act as near term closing support for nifty spot.

separated at birth???...

there may be more, i could recall similarities in these at present.

hope u have enjoyed!!!

mkt ahead...16th apr 2010...

down day after closing below our short to medium term profit booking tsl given, others who not booked can hold with 5230 cl sl as this trend is still up.

intraday to near term nf short tgts from 5350(sl 5390) done twice, can either book or hold with suitable tsl.

my pc/os has crashed, all the data and tech s/w are inaccessible, trying to repair, so i may not be able to update the blog or twitter for few days, though meanwhile would still try to post view with charts/data from other online sites.

thanks,
abhay r somkuwar.

mkt ahead...12th april 2010...

5400 tgt done in style after 5320 for short to medium term on expected lines.

tsl for stmt positional traders now raising to 5318(as marked by small green circle on the spot nifty chart above). sl 5230 cl basis.(updated tuesday: tsl for today 5328 spot nifty cl basis)

s&p500(us)...timewise the large bears...

(charts courtesy:http://www.dshort.com)

my views on dow and s&p500(us) given in earlier posts.

nifty p/e chart and valuations...

my latest nifty p/e chart valuations and mkt ahead view...

last time nifty topped out on the intersection blue line and upper slanting gray line(marked by oval), this i had marked on the pe graph in advance only.

current zone where profit booking is coming since october 2009 is as shown by gray rectangle on chart that corresponds to p/e between 23 and 24.

note also how the p/e curve lines are getting restricted between the two upward slanting gray lines.

since the last earnings quarter the eps of nifty50 shares has been upgraded by about 5%. while in the last one year the nifty50 eps has been upgraded by little above 10 percent. because of this upgradation in eps the valuations do not look as expensive as they were in december last year, hence we seen money coming in to mkt and mkt moving higher above 5300.

with the continuing global recovery in financial mkts and economic growth, the nifty listed companies have a headroom for better profitability and earnings in coming years which will have a favourable impact on the earnings and eps of the nifty50 shares. so an expectation of 15-20% eps growth in next few years cannot be ruled out.

therefore it can be expected that on any major profit booking there will be a support led by buying at lower lvls by financial institutions, lets say initially somewhere near average p/e of 19-20(which by current eps comes to about 4450 or so).

and if jan-mar 2010 earnings upgrade also takes place(depending on favourable quarterly results, this takes some time) then this nifty initial support lvl may be shifted upward.

added in evening in reply:
the graph is for nifty50 and same thing doesn't apply to sensex30 stocks, the multiple could be different. since i have not tracked sensex graph, i can't say exactly about the sensex lvls.

on nifty50 perhaps 16-17 times current year eps is cheaper in a bull mkt, and 10-11 in bear mkt. 23.5-24 resis on upside corresponds to about 5500 or more as resis currently, which is also a technical resistance on charts.

there can be situations when
1)nifty50 eps is good and growing but money not coming in or is moving out of the mkt->low p/e,
2)eps not growing or negative growth but still large money inflows(money chasing stocks)->euphoria stage.

depending on fundamentals and the state of global economics and money flows(liquidity conditions) we have bull, bear or sideways mkts, the p/e multiple varies between cheap, fair, expensive or euphoric/bubble valuations.

if we are able to assess the state we are in we can take advantage and be successful to a large extent in the mkt. the p/e chart can help us alongwith other fundamental and technical data in taking such investment related decision.

mkt ahead...06th apr 2010...

in previous posts i had raised the short to medium tgts for nifty to 5320 and 5400.

it was also said that first tgt is achievable immediately and nifty will take spend some time near/below 5300 before proceeding to second tgt.

exactly same thing we saw happening in nifty actual trading. also i had from time to time given an updated/raised the tsl for short to medium term positional nifty traders(5240 last time) and as always it was so perfect it never got hit for those long positions, keeping them safe.

not much change in tsl required at present.

but nifty has run up and closed above the imp 5320.i.e., 5368. it has also given a breakout closing and the resis is now above 5450 where profit booking might come. so the second tgt 5400(approx.) is on the radar now. 5300 should be acting as near to short term support now.

intraday swing trading with camrilla equation lvls...nifty chart...

mkt ahead...31st mar 2010...

there is some profit booking after meeting our nifty tgt around 5320.

for short term positional longs tsl can be raised for today to 5240, sl below 5200.

it was an 'inside day'. positional near term directional call can be taken in the direction of brkout/brkdown. but intraday, upto a 50 point shorting opportunity was there on a symmetrical triangle brkdown.

going forward also it may not be easy for nifty to stay above 5300 and it may spend some more time below it and consolidate.

all in spot closing basis.

mkt ahead...29th mar 2010...

5200 tsl maintained for short term positional longs. one can keep holding with tgts 5320/5400.

at present 5320 looks more likely than the second one.

not much change in tsl though. some negative divergence is setting up on indicators, so one must be cautious at higher lvls which have acted as strong resistances in the past.



the lvls and other things are shown in the nifty spot eod chart above.

mkt ahead...22nd mar 2010...

some profit booking looks like happening now, on expected lines. the mkt may undergo some amount of correction.

already said to book profits in longs at or above 5250 at right time(refer tweeter updates) for near to short term. the short term support is 5150(tsl) and sl near 5000 which should act as good support in short to medium term(added thursday: for today, this tsl can be raised to 5200 cl basis).

mkt ahead...17th mar 2010...

another breakout above 5151. most tgts done. expected profit booking did'nt come after monday. nifty tgt is now raised to 5300 for the short term. tsl for short term positional longs can be raised to 5090 cl basis.

mkt ahead...16th mar 2010...

no change in the nifty view.

my views for the dow jones and s&p500(us) are as follows:

unlike nifty or sensex the dow has been technically quite steady and stable mkt not created panic of any sort and holding its supports, maintaining the uptrend on intermediate and long term(one year) charts. if continues like this then a tgt of 11300 or more should be achievable this year in medium term once it starts trading above the 10767 lvl. this could possibly be a final leg up before it corrects significantly and then heads higher on long term charts.

the s&p500(us) is currently outperforming the dow index and may well lead in breaking out on upside. if that happens then 1230-1250 should be achievable in short to medium term. other things said about dow applies to the s&p index also.

-abhay r somkuwar.

mkt ahead...11th mar 2010...

nifty is in a tight range of 50 odd points since last three days.

while currently seems limited downside to the mkt, about 100 points, the tsl for short term positional players can be kept near/below 5000 lvl.

near term resistances/profit booking near 5150/5180/5200 lvls.

profit booking possibility can be there from monday onwards.

mkt ahead...08th mar 2010...

nothing much to add...short term trend is up and tgts of 5183/5200 still on cards. 5300 is distinct possibility.

global mkts are also supporting this currently.

tsl for short term positional players is just below 4945 cl basis.

for intraday/near term nifty trading positions pls refer to the twitter updates given above.

fii and dii cash figures...

since mid feb 2010 net fii cash flows have mostly been in positive territory while dii's have been on net selling side, the mkt trend is reflective of this.

mkt ahead...03rd mar 2010...

nifty has moved exactly as per view given in last post(pls go through 18th feb 2010 post on mkt ahead). it respected and held the 4780-4930 area very well and bounced off more than 200 points. all our given upper tgt lvls are achieved today!!!




inverted H&S and other studies give an approx tgt 5200 on nifty. its also in near to short term uptrend as mentioned earlier.

therefore positional players long near 4830 can either keep a cl sl of 4780 for catching more uptrend, if left, else others also can book positional longs partially.(this statement is suitably corrected at 1.04 pm today on 3rd mar 2010)

if profit booking comes, then a price movement upto 4900(neckline of the supposed IHS) cannot be ruled out.

nifty f&o views/calls/strategies...

as mentioned earlier, i would attempt to give my nifty f&o views/calls strategy for trading intraday via tweets which would be updated above this blog post.

however it should be noted that,
1) trading in f&o is risky and only for traders who are agile and who have a trading risk appetite.
2) minimum capital required for this trading would be 80 thousand or more.
3) updates to be given any time during the day.
4) updates may not be possible in case of power/internet failure or any unavoidable circumstances.
5) trader/reader is free to follow or not follow and take his own decision and discretion while execution, responsibility for any profit or loss arising is solely his/her own.

mkt ahead...18th feb 2010...

allright so we got the bounce and also this 100 point movement i was writing about after crossing the mentioned zone earlier and baby bulls took nifty to 4930. hope the readers might have benefitted to some extent. many times analyzing the mkt is bit easier than actually writing and explaining the views here, like this time, and i may go completely wrong in my views/opinion on mkt too, however let me try to explain.

what i feel is that some more move upto 4980 may be left. if any profit booking comes and gets limited to 4780-4830 then the move to 4980-5015-5070 may be possible in the near to short term. but again 4951 will be crucial and at higher end selling may again start.

actually the selling in early feb was far more than needed/anticipated and the lack of volumes on follow up bounce/pullback hints that more selling might be left in the short term till 4650/4450 after this pullback gets over. if such a scenario occurs and nifty then is unable to quickly pullback up over the imp 4590-4650 area, then it may actually become quite bearish and nifty may try to move to 4250 lvls in the medium term.

however this bearish view will get negated to some extent(not fully) if the nifty continues its upward journey and starts closing above the mentioned 4983-5015 lvls with an increase in the trading volumes. like e.g., yday's volumes were better with a bullish macd-signal crossover, but a short term uptrend is yet to be established above 4951.

one has to be cautious and trade carefully in coming days. mkt movement will have to be closely watched and accordingly i will try to give more updates in coming days as per my view, if at all necessary.

-abhay r somkuwar.

(discl: pls read the disclaimer above)

mkt ahead...10th feb 2010...

as expected, some sort of a bounce is happening in the near term and early signs of it looks positive as it has broken out of falling tline resistance.

positive global cues along with positive divergence from oversold territory might help nifty to move up.

nifty has to stay near or above yday close or above the tline in coming days.

however for gaining some strength on the upperside(and for arresting movement toward 4600 etc) few closings above 4825-4834 will be better, which would ensure a further movement of atleast 100 odd points. however since macd and other indicators are still bearish it would take some more time to establish a sustainable uptrend. 4951 is resistance where or before some selling might again come.

above 4952 the short term trend reverses on the upside.

nifty charts...08th feb 2010...

nifty spot daily(eod) chart:

downtrend still on with further weakness as macd and ema is in bearish crossovers.

freshly bearish below the very imp 4800 lvl and downside opens upto 4500-4600, also has broken below one of the support trendlines(blue line).

only good thing is positive divergence developing on indicators in oversold region, bottom could be near that could lead to a sizeable bounce that may come later.




nifty weekly chart:

major supports(green lines) and resistances(red lines) are as shown in the chart.


(charts coustesy:www.icharts.in)


fii net cash selling is still on:

mkt follow up...(charts)...

nifty eod chart posted on 28/01/2010:


current nifty eod chart:


atleast two points to be noted from the charts and the earlier mkt views:

1)in the view it was predicted that the downtrend low/bounce may occur just before or on last friday which it did accurately again.

2)nifty spot took support exactly on the drawn trendline support, which is yet to be violated.

fii and dii figures...

equity/cash mkt data:

mkt ahead 28th jan 2010...nifty eod(chart)...

trend: short term downtrend

trade day: big down day with break below imp supports.

trading volumes: high

macd: bearish

rsi: in oversold region

trendlines: some support and resis trendlines as shown

significant support: 4800

major support/exit(must stay closing below this for few days):
4500 approx for medium to intermediate term investors
3900 for long term investors

-abhay r somkuwar.

just for fun!!!

just for fun!

being a small 3d enthusiast i have done some anaglyph conversions(not a big deal:)).

have uploaded the avatar movie trailer on the youtube.

check the video at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X5DPkRBytLQ

mkt ahead...25th jan 2010...

nifty continues in its short term downtrend.

again an initial movement toward 5000 intraday possible due to weak global mkts.

4925/4940 thereafter still has a chance and will be imp on closing basis. hence not sure of reaching 4800 immediately in a couple of days.

resistances are placed well far above(near ones being 5094/5118) so the mkt has to do a lot on upperside to turn into near to short term bullishness even if any bounce comes after this downtrend gets over(maybe near or before friday). updates later.

mkt ahead...22nd jan 2010...

nifty getting nervous near 5300 lvls which was a major tgt also and kept losing steam...so the sideways-down actually accelerated into further downtrend on facing resis 5292 on large uninterrupted fii selling.

for near term positional traders it has been a shorting opportunity since nifty was already in a sideways-downtrend. 5160-5170 the previous downside lvl was broken and bearishly moved in near term till next lvl of 5084 which would have acted as support(since 5084 was also very near to one of the key short term support tlines) for cutting shorts. but looking at further 2% losses on dow jones and other asian mkts today this lvl looks like getting broken in which case it may immediately move possibly till 5000-5030.

major lvls below that are 4925/4940(which is quite possible if the selling continues in our mkt) and 4800.

medium to intermediate strong trendline support is currently at 4968(as mentioned in last post), it could be imp from the investor's point of view. however exit point of view the investor needs to have patience as major downside lvls are still intact.

mkt ahead...

trend is sideways. weekly resistance to overcome sideways trading range is 5291 which nifty attempted yday but couln't cross above.

near term support 5160. trendline lvl support for short term 4968 and above.

mkt ahead 13th jan 2010...

it was said tuesday or wednesday one should be cautious of profit booking. exactly that's what happened.

particularly aban which reached our tgt 1530 and same day(tuesday) reacted and came under heavy profit booking which may continue till next monday or tuesday. downside lvl/support is placed at 1360/1325 if 1430 doesn't hold.

whereas nifty still remained in its near term downtrend and was not able to cross its eod resistance lvls and led to further profit booking even on good iip data and infosys results!

however support of 5160 is near and bulls may like to protect it on closing basis. downtrend in nifty may continue till friday.

major supports for medium term uptrend are just below 5000.

nifty_pe..valuation perspective...

for valuation study purpose i have divided my old and updated nifty pe chart into 4 valuation zones:

C: cheap valuations
F: fair valuations
R: rich valuations
E: expensive/euphoric valuations.

so as the reader can see we are currently in the R zone(pe 23.43).

above the grey tline upto 28.47 there will be euphoria and mkt gets too expensive.

with the current eps without any upgrades but simply on huge liquidity nifty could possibly rise to 6377(i.e) near previous lifetime high). that would be euphoric and would be prone to danger to further upmove or subject to sharp correction.

to keep it rising but still in F to R range, good results, earnings growth and earnings upgrades are necessary.

-abhay r somkuwar.

mkt ahead 11th jan 2010...

as expected nifty has broken above 5183 and reached the first tgt 5300 as given in previous posts. expected small profit booking did come in on last thursday and friday as given in my 6th jan post earlier.

nifty may well achieve the next tgt 5388/5400 in the near term. but crossing that in near term would be a bit difficult as profit booking may arise. short term support 4928, short to medium term tgt if once 5428 is crossed would be 5545/5580. over intermediate to long term 4538, if held closing basis consistently, then a much larger tgt can be possible.

since nifty may face some resistance near 5400 one should a bit cautious, some profit booking possible after tuesday or wednesday.

nifty intraday to near term trend is down. intraday resis 5250/5283, would be near term bullish above this.


aban performed very well, it has moved up 15 odd percent from its cmp of 1284 to 1517 since the bullish near term view was given last monday here, achieving all the near term targets.

revising the near to short term tgts now to 1530 and 1680, support 1320. i had given an investment buy on dips in this counter on diwali for medium to intermediate term, the tgts for that are 2250(couple of months) and 4200(upto a year) if the stock and the overall mkt trend remains strong and up. some profit booking may well come along the way.


for more short term stock related views or asking queries visit my other blog http://eyesonthecash.blogspot.com(link provided on top of the page under "positional cash fno" section).

mkt ahead 06th jan 2010...

aban very accurately reached our both near term tgts mentioned in previous post (refer day before yday high 1345 and yday's high 1375), :)

a further movement till 1395-1403 may be possible in near term.

much larger upside gets opened up if starts closing consistently above 1448, which will depend on the state of the overall mkt and stock specific profit booking etc.

nifty is reaching imp resis lvls of 5300 etc hence some caution, possibly thursday or friday, but no such bearishness is there currently.

mkt ahead 04th jan 2010...

welcome into the new year 2010!!!

welcome to the new trade timings as well starting 9.00 a.m from today.

after bouncing on last tuesday nifty continued its upward journey and achieved brkout closing above the imp 5182/5183 lvl(refer previous posts).

nifty has also moved to its intraday tgt 5220/5230, it has intraday support near 5160, there is currently no intraday bearishness but if the mkt undergoes intraday profit booking on monday and breaks below 5160 can move down upto 5130/5080.

on positional basis, staying above 5183 nifty has a chance to move initially to 5300/5388, above which in medium to intermediate term can tgt to 5545/5580. short term support 4943.

over intermediate to long term 4538, if held closing basis consistently, then a much larger tgt can be possible(lvl i won't mention right now).

aban could be headed to 1345-1375 if current short term upmove continues.

at any time if investors need to exit the mkt i would mention here or on the other blog http://eyesonthecash.blogspot.com. i have also added a delivery based stocks query box there for investors.